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Articles related to finding bets using form study

VB Epsom Derby Preview

Today Carl Nicholson (http://valuebacking.com) previews next months Epsom Derby and concludes there are a lot of ludicrous prices that should be avoided at the moment.

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Hi everyone, for this weeks article I am going to try and work out the Derby picture, which i have to say is a rather murky affair at the moment.

I did think last week that JFK would do the business at York, but again he fell out the back of the TV once again. It looks like he is a morning glory work horse and it is back to square one for the O’Brien outfit as far as their Derby prospects are concerned.

It will more likely be the case they will throw a few darts at the race and hope one sticks, rather than being confident of any.

Hans Holbein will stay the trip and looks the pick of the ones that have run so far.

Giovanni Canaletto has yet to see the track this season but could run in a few days. If he wins he will no doubt shorten up.

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Badly Drawn – Off The Rails

We’ve got some more expert insights from Carl Nicholson today, which have prompted me to add a note to my system research file regarding stall positions and maybe research the draw at places like Redcar where the stalls are in the centre of the track.

Interesting stuff.

Find out more about Carl and his tipping service at http://valuebacking.com (Join Now for today’s 9/1 selection)

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Some interesting points came from the Guineas meeting at the weekend.

First off we had the rail issue which seemed to cause a bit of a stir.

I think the first point to make is that being drawn next to any rail on a turf track is an advantage in races up to a mile.

So I think the main point was that the stewards moved the stalls back to a rail position (they were in the middle of the track previously ).

The cut away was in my opinion just a pointless thing to do as it made no difference to the racing.

I personally as a punter was happy to see the stalls position back on a rail as it made selections very easy ( my two selections for the 2000 & 1000 guineas were drawn next to the rails ) with one of them Legatissimo winning at 13’2.

But the point is on grass, racing stalls positions are very important and horses drawn near to the rails do have an advantage there is no doubt.

Some tracks still position stalls in the middle of the course like Redcar for example which then offer no advantage (indeed horses drawn on the outside wings are at a disadvantage ).

So bear in mind stall positions when making your selections it is an old saying in racing, but it is surprising how many short priced horses or fancied runners you can cut out from your selection process just because they are drawn badly away from the rails etc

All the best
Carl Nicholson

Today’s Selection

3.10 Chester Medrano – win bet 15/2 Bet Victor

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All Weather to Turf – No Go

Today we have our second contribution from Carl Nicholson, who’s Value Backing service is showing over 100% ROI this month and who has a 7/1 selection at the Punchestown Festival this afternoon on his service.

Full details here http://valuebacking.com

Here’s Carl…

Hi everyone and welcome to my 2nd article exclusive to the Daily Punt. It was nice to read one or two of you had some good things to say about my first article :-)

So onto this week and the NH season came to an end at Sandown on Saturday with all the AP talk it was sad that he did not have a last winner. But I am sure he would not have minded that much given the tremendous support he had on the day.

I think looking in to next season Richard Johnson will be very tough to beat as champion jockey, as he will now have the full attention of AP’s agent Dave Roberts on his side and I am positive he will get on plenty of rides that AP would have had. That should see him home in my view and he could well top 200 winners for the season.

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The Shortlist Report

I’m still playing around with all the features and reports over at Geegeez.

And what I’ve found out is that if you just register with Geegeez for free that you get access to a different feature each day, so you can try out the various features at no cost.

On a Tuesday it’s the shortlist.

The Shortlist is a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report that day.

Currently, it covers win stats only, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

Here’s an example:

GeeGeez Shortlist

Click to Enlarge

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate)
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate)
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate)
‘-‘ means there is no available data for that factor.

Here’s how you can get today’s shortlist for free.

Go to www.geegeez.co.uk

On the right of the page is a log on box, and just under that is a register link, click that, and register.

Once you’re registered you’ll be redirected to your profile page and you’ll be logged in.

Next click Race Cards from the top menu.

You’ll then have access to all of today’s race cards, which frankly are easier and faster to use than the Racing Post ones and you’ll also see the Report Selector box just above the race cards.

Pick The Shortlist from the report selector and you can see what horses made the shortlist today and why they made it. Simples!

Today’s Selection

Fontwell 2.10 Theatrical Star – win bet – 15/8 Paddy Power

 

 

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