I read an interesting article recently about why horse racing staking plans don’t help when backing horses.
Basically the premise was that if you are backing then you are betting more losers than winners and if you have any type of increasing stakes plan then you will be increasing stakes on losers also and so you will lose more. Or at least your return on investment will go down.
But that got me thinking, because if we are betting odds on shots then we will have more winners than losers, so that means if we increase stakes then we will be staking more on winners than losers. Because there are more of them.
This reminded me of the Odds On Trainer and Odds On Jockey systems we created back in May of this year.
Both of these systems are in profit, but at Starting Prices it is a very modest profit.
Here are the numbers since we created the system
Odds On Trainers = 3.43 points from 108 bets with a 60.19% strike rate
Odds On Jockeys = 3.35 points from 85 bets with a 63.53% strike rate
To be honest I tend to agree with the article and don’t like any form of increasing stakes staking plan, but I think a simple percent of bank plan would go well with these strike rates.
If we revisit my article from earlier in the month about longest losing runs we can calculate that we can expect a longest losing run of about 9 with a 60% strike rate from 100 bets.
So I think a 5% of bank staking plan would work well as it allows for 20 losers in a row.
I applied this plan to the Odds On Trainers system and it made a profit of £7.13 from a £100 bank level £5 stakes would have made £17.15.
So I did the same with the Odds On Jockeys system and got similar results, using 5% of the bank made a profit of £10.14, but level £5 stakes produced £16.75.
So what’s the point here, I think it’s just that beware of anything promising riches from a system or tips that use a particular staking plan.
I’m sure I could come up with a staking plan that would make these selections more profitable, but it would probably only work on that particular sequence.
Feel free to discuss this in the comments and I’ll investigate any interesting points raised when I get back from my hols.
Today’s Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com
7.50 Wolverhampton Old Fashion 11/4