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Category Archives: Systems

Betting systems are a key short cut for the bettor and a great way to profit for not much work. This page links out to our systems pages.

Jockey to Follow

Today Nick Hardman shares his thoughts on an up and coming jockey and on the Bet 365 Gold Cup.

You can read all of Nick’s tips and analysis at the Betting School Insiders Club.

We have racing from Sandown over the next 2 days with the flat meeting taking place today and the jumps meeting on Saturday which brings the curtain down on the National Hunt season and AP McCoy’s remarkable career. Before we take a look at Saturday’s racing we take a look at a young jockey with outstanding prospects of making it to the very top.

Sean Bowen rode his first winner in a hands and heels hurdle race back in December 2013, steering 16/1 shot Kozmina Bay to a comfortable 6 length victory for trainer Bernard Llewellyn. In 2014 he went on to ride a further 23 winners from 162 rides at a strike rate of 14%.

However, backing all his 2014 runners to level £1 stakes would have resulted in an overall loss of £38.20. But, 2015 tells a different story and shows us just how far the young jockey has progressed. To date his strike rate in 2015 is 26%, with 24 winners from 94 rides and a level stakes profit of £42.78.Continue Reading

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Grand National – All Change

A nice winner for us yesterday at 9/2 in the morning, started at 4/1 ;-)

Today we have the first article from new contributor Carl Nicholson, who by the way topped the proofing tables at Race Advisor for 2014.

Today he talks about the Grand National where he tipped eachway selection Monbeg Dude who finished 3rd which I backed at 50/1 :-).

Here’s Carl…

Hi everyone my name is Carl and I am the founder of the very successful Value Backing tipping service.

Some of you will no doubt have also read my articles in the monthly Betting School Report over the past few years. But now exclusive to the Daily Punt I am going to be writing about the issues within racing and giving a few pointers to help the every day punter in his or her betting activities. These articles will be published every week on a Thursday and hopefully you the reader will be able to gain that bit of extra knowledge along the way.

So this week I think the first place to start is the Grand National.

For a number of recent years now the SP or starting price of all the National runners has been somewhat of a discussion point.

There were some headlines after this years running that made out that many of the once a year punters were getting a raw deal when it comes to the starting price of the runners. Because many once a year punters will not take a price ( or realise they can ) when placing their bets.

I think one point these headlines failed to mention is that the turn over i.e the business the bookmakers have is huge on this day. So of course they will build up large liabilities even on the 250’1 outsiders and so like any bookmaker in any race at anytime of the year they will use the same principles and shorten the prices.

The problem is that because everything and I mean everything in the race will be bet to levels unseen in any other race in the year, the bookmakers just end up shortening the price of everything and nothing gets pushed out.

The effect is then the over round margins that are generated i.e the profit that a bookmaker will make on the race will be big, in this years race it was in the high 160% range. Normal margins are in the region of around 115%. Because the National is now a victim of its own success i.e the amount of money bet on it, there is always going to be this kind of problem.

The answer is not an easy one, because you are dealing with bookmakers who now have shareholders and who now view the Grand National as a cash cow and rightly so. The only answer would be to scrap the SP or starting price completely. But when you think about it would that be such a bad thing ? Why do we as punters need a starting price ? Each bookmaker would then have to compete offering a competitive price. You would still have betting in the lead up to a race off time, but when you place a bet with the bookmaker you choose you get that price on offer at the time and that is that, simples ! It would bring back competitiveness and enable punters to use the judgement on what prices to take and when. Food for thought don’t you think ?

Getting back the Grand National itself, it is now becoming clear that the winners of the race are forming somewhat of a pattern now the race conditions have changed in recent years. I think from now on you need to be looking out for runners who have won big major handicap staying races in the last two seasons.

This years winner is a prime example having won the Hennessy. So next year look out for these big race winners for I feel sure they will always be in with a major shout in future Nationals as class seems to be a huge asset now in the race.

Today’s Selection

3:20 Perth Toms Article – win bet 9/2 Boylesports

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Advanced system testing

I have mentioned the “c” system over the last few weeks.

It is 18 points up this month.

This sounds great but how can you tell if it is likely to continue to perform?

When you create systems you are very aware that you are looking at what happened in past and that it doesn’t necessarily mean you will get the same results in the future.

But there are a few tests you can do that will help you decide if your system has a chance of continuing to perform as it has.

A/E, Edge and Expected winners , Chi-Squared (Archie).

These are all calculations you perform on your system to help you give you confidence in your system.

I have put together a video showing the “C” system being analysed using the above methods which you can view here:

http://greyhorsebot.com/csystem

A/E – Actual / Expected.

You can perform this calculation on a number of statistics but the most popular is longest losing run and expected winners.

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Trading In Running

Hopefully you took the price on yesterdays selection which was backed into 6/1 at the start, it was as you probably realised another stall 2 selection;-)

Trading in running is not an easy game. And many mistakes are made by the beginner before any level of proficiency can be reached.

There are two main camps when it comes to trading in running. Those that watch the action and aim to spot the winner before it’s obvious and those that use some sort of system.

Today’s observation falls into the latter category.

I’ve just been reading the findings of some research into horses that drift in running but go on to win.Continue Reading

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