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Top Ten Tipsters

Before we get to this week’s top ten tipsters table I just want to mention that there is a special offer at Value Backing today.

Value Backing regularly feature in our top tipster table and today you can get three months for the price of one.

This offer expires at midnight – http://www.valuebacking.com/goodwood-offer/
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Another relatively quiet week this week on the tipping front but we have a new Number One and some interesting new entrants.

As mentioned previously the Tipster Table is based on the last 30 days selections and uses the Best Odds Guaranteed prices to record the level of profit. The overall Return on Investment is our main concern, but obviously this has to be coupled with a reasonable strike rate.

All prices quoted are at advised odds.

1. Weekender SpecialStrike Rate 45% ROI 62%
The Weekender Special is a re-entry to the top slot this week with four winners from their 12 selections including Sixth Sense, Chain Of Daisies, Besharah and Tanzeel (8/1).
Find out more about the serviceContinue Reading

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Trainer Trends Selections

Today we have some trainer trends selections from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders

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This Friday we have a couple of trainer trends for today’s meetings at Chepstow and Thirsk. 

First of all we head to Chepstow and two trainers who have saddled 13 winners between them at the South Wales course just this season alone. 

The first is Ralph Beckett who has trained 17 winners from 52 runners at a strike rate of 33% at Chepstow since 2011.  Backing each of those runners would have returned a profit of £23.35 to £1 level stakes. 

This season is shaping up to be his best ever as he has already had 6 winners from just 9 runners at the course in 2015 for a level stakes profit of £9.94.  Since 2011 he has operated at a 42% strike rate in handicaps (10 winners from 24 runners) and he has actually won with 5 of his last 6 handicappers at the course.  Today he has the following entries:

Ralph Beckett runners at Chepstow:

5.50pm Lavinia Rose 11/4 (6f maiden)

6.20pm Poyle Jessica 11/4 (7f handicap)

6.50pm Arc Cara 15/8 (7f handicap)

Our next Chepstow trainer is Andrew Balding.  Since 2011 he has sent out 26 winners from 92 runners at a strike rate of 28%.  Continue Reading

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Top Ten Tipsters

It seems that this past week has been a quite one and many of the climbers are elevated in their positions in the table more as a result of the poorer performance of other services rather than as a consequence of their own good selections.

As mentioned previously the Tipster Table is based on the last 30 days selections and uses the Best Odds Guaranteed prices to record the level of profit. The overall Return on Investment is our main concern, but obviously this has to be coupled with a reasonable strike rate.

None of us like long losing runs, but losing runs you can guarantee will occur. It is important to be confident in the service you are using that long term; overall, they will deliver overall profit to your bank.
All prices quoted are at advised odds.

1. Value Backing ExtraStrike Rate 29% ROI 300%
Value Backing Extra still heads the table this week even though there have been no selections for this service over the past seven days. The ROI is incomparable and as such selective betting definitely seems to be the key. We are aware of the strong likelihood that an ROI of 300% is unsustainable long term, but the service demonstrates that a consistent, steady and selective approach pays longer term.
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2. UKRN Early Bird Strike Rate 25% ROI 60%
Up one place this week is the UKRN Early Bird service but again this rise is based on previous performance in comparison to the poor performance of others. There have been no selections from this service the past week and the overall performance has been a little erratic. There is a feeling in our waters that this one may fade by the wayside. Let’s hope that they prove us wrong.
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3. Andy Bell Strike Rate 37% ROI 54%
Another climber this week is Andy Bell, up two places. A 2/1 winner helped to steady the flow as the service dropped two points over the past week, but that isn’t detrimental given the current strike rate and ROI.
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4. Win NapsterStrike Rate 39% ROI 50%
Another climber two places is Win Napster and there climb is justified with Dhaular Dar a 7/1 winner from their three selections this week.
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5. ITK RacingStrike Rate 35% ROI 48%
ITK Racing is a re-entry having been in the table previously back in May this year with an average of 10 points profit so far this month. Hopefully they can build on this and it isn’t just a flash in the pan.
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6. Exchange ProfitsStrike Rate 57% ROI 44%
Exchange Profits has had a good week this week and profits for July are now at 20+ points with 4 winners from 11 selections with prices ranging from 10/11 to 11/2.
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7. Fantastic EightsStrike Rate 22% ROI 38%
Fantastic Eights is pretty prolific in the number of selections it offers with its service and this week has seen a loss overall on the week, but they are still some 60+points in profit over the 30 day period.
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8. Gold PlatedStrike Rate 20% ROI 30%
Gold Plated have lost some 20 points over the past week, and the number of selections has been high, but it can’t be denied that they are still over 70 points up for the month which is no mean feat.
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9. Lucky 7 NapsStrike Rate 27% ROI 29%
Lucky 7 Naps re-enters the table this week after a good week has brought their profits tally for July up to just over 40 points. Winners have included Wor Lass 13/2, Le Notre 3/1, Strath Burn 13/2, Pacify 7/2 and several shorter priced winners.
Find out more about the service

10. Unity Racing ClubStrike Rate 265 ROI 14%
Unity racing Club is a re-entry to the table this week. This service appears to be a bit of a rollercoaster. The past week though has seen their profits back to early heights. Not shout out amazing but a profit nonetheless including winners from Hulcolt 4/1, Ghinia 7/2
Find out more about the service

Todays Selection

13:55 Ayr Ingleby Valley 2\1 Bet365

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Summer Cup Selections

Today Nick Hardman from Betting Insiders looks at the big races at Market Rasen and has some selections for us…

This weekend sees Market Rasen host their best card of the season featuring the Summer Hurdle and the Summer Plate. We take a look at the key trends for both races and also highlight an in-form trainer who looks to be going under the radar.

We kick off with the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen on Saturday. 11 of the last 16 winners finished in the first two home on their previous start (8 won LTO) so it could pay to look to those in form.

5yo and 6yo runners dominate with 6 wins apiece since 1999 and they have double the strike rate of any other age group. 12 winners have come from the top 4 in the betting since 1999 (16 renewals) and there have been 3 winning favourites in that time.

The occasional upset does happen with two 33/1 outsiders winning this in the past. However, 12 of the 16 winners have returned odds of 8/1 or shorter.

John Ferguson has won the last 2 renewals and Martin Pipe won this 3 times between 1999 and 2005 although son David has not added to that tally.

Not much of a trend on official ratings although 5 of the last 7 winners were rated 133+ and no horse has won off a rating higher than 140.

Puntal carried 11st 10lbs to victory in 2002 but since then no horse has managed to win carrying more than 11st 5lbs.

That leaves us with a just Buckwheat and Hurricane Hollow.

The first is trained by John Ferguson who has 5 entered in total. With no early prices and final declarations still to be made we will have to wait and see who lines up and what value lies in the prices:

Summer Hurdle (Market Rasen, Saturday)
Trends horses: Buckwheat, Hurricane Hollow

The Summer Plate has gone to a last time out winner in 10 of the last 16 renewals and there have only 3 winners who finished outside the first three on their last start.

We have had 6 winning favourites since 1999 and all bar three of the winners in that time could be found in the top 6 in the betting.

8 of the last 9 winners all returned at odds of 9/1 or shorter. No more than 3 runs in the current season looks a positive as does a win over at least 2m 4 ½f.

13 of the 16 winners were aged 7yo to 10yo with 7yo runners winning the race 7 times since 1999.

Peter Bowen won the race 4 times between 2003 and 2008 but has no entries this year and the Pipe yard have had 3 winners since 2002. Jonjo O’Neill saddled the winner in 2009 and again last year with It’s A Gimme who is entered for a repeat bid.

No horse has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory and the last 10 winners were rated 127 to 135. That leaves us with a shortlist of Greenlaw, Perfect Timing, Bar De Ligne and Pumped Up Kicks.

Again, it’s hard to say who will line up and what price they will be but it will be worth checking after final declarations and see who is in the top 6 in the betting.

Summer Plate (Market Rasen, Saturday)
Trends horses: Greenlaw, Perfect Timing, Bar De Ligne, Pumped Up Kicks

Finally, Ronald Harris may not have the best strike rate but his horses have hit a purple patch with winners at 12/1, 10/1, 12/1 and 16/1 in the last 10 days.

He runs Nocturn in the 3.50pm at Haydock tomorrow.

Haydock 3.50pm
Nocturn @8/1 e/w

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