Thanks to those of you who were bold enough to put up your selections for the Guineas races. (read them here)
Before I tell you what I’m going with, and it’s one mentioned in the comments, let’s look at why we are opposing Camelot.
Camelot has run twice and won twice. Both races were in 5 runner fields the last run being in the Racing Post Trophy.
It is forty years since a Racing Post Trophy winner won the 2000 Guineas the following season!
Both of his previous runs were on good going and the Newmarket going is soft.
Camelot Jockey Joseph O’Brien had this to say
the possibility of soft ground is “a question mark” for the son of Montjeu, who has so far raced only on a sound surface. (via Guardian)
Which brings us on to the final negative. This from the Irish Field
Even more significantly, any son of Montjeu has an extremely damning statistic to overcome in the 2000 Guineas. Montjeu has sired over 150 horses that have been officially rated 100 or higher. Yet, of all those talented horses, not a single one of them has won a Group race at a mile or shorter as a three-year-old or older in Europe. Indeed, just a handful of them have won at Listed level within that criteria, with one of those being, interestingly enough, Hurricane Fly. It is very rare to have a black-and-white statistic of such notability in the case of a well-established sire and the significance of such a stat shouldn’t be underplayed in the case of Camelot.
With those negatives against Camelot win or lose it represents bad value at 6/4.
The value alternative.
The selection we are going with is second favourite Abtaal.
Racing Post rate Abtaal 131 (Camelot = 133) and he is a horse that has won on Very Soft ground in France.
He did finish second last time out after stumbling in the final furlong but at 7/1 we can afford the odd negative and still have a value bet.
2000 Guineas selection – Abtaal – each way bet.
Todays Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends
Musselburgh 3.30 Muffin McCleay 9/2 – 1 pt win