We have a bit of a mixed bag this Friday with a couple of interesting runners from the cards at Newbury and Sedgefield, a qualifier from the All-Weather Trainers To Follow over at the Betting School Community forum and finally a trends analysis of the Listed Mares’ Hurdle from Newbury on Saturday.
First up we head to Newbury for today’s racing.
Nicky Henderson has a fine recent record at the track and since 2013 his runners are 25-84 (30% strike rate) for a level stakes profit of £11.50. His hurdlers in non-handicap races are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and 9 of the last 20 have won.
His best chances on the card appear to lie in the opener with Champagne Express.
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David Pipe cannot quite match the strike rate of Nicky Henderson but he is another trainer with an excellent recent record at Newbury. Since the start of 2014 his runners are 10-39 (26% strike rate) for a level stakes profit of £23.03.
In 2015 he has sent out 6 winners from 19 runners (32% strike rate) for a profit of £16.28.
His best chance looks to be Border Breaker in the Novice’s Handicap Hurdle that closes the card.
Henderson and Pipe have other runners on the card but the strongest two appear to be:
Newbury 2.10pm Champagne Express
Newbury 5.25pm Border Breaker
On the All-Weather at Wolverhampton on Friday evening, Stuart Williams looks to continue his good form with Royal Birth in the 5f handicap. The C&D winner was last seen winning on the turf at Bath last September.
His fitness will have to be taken on trust but the last day he defied an absence of 108 days to score.
Wolverhampton 7.15pm Royal Birth
Saturday is a fairly low key affair after the highs of the Cheltenham Festival and I have run through the Listed Mares’ Hurdle to try and identify the horses that match the profile of previous winners.
We are looking for a 5yo or 6yo runner (won 14 of the last 15 renewals) with a top 5 finish LTO, last raced 16 – 30 days previously, had between 3 and 7 runs in the current season, rated 122+ and carrying less than 11st 4lbs.
That leaves us with a trends shortlist of Allez Encore, Hannah’s Princess, Cresswell Bridge and Taniokey.
If you want a trainer angle then Nicky Henderson (4 wins) and Oliver Sherwood (2 wins) have won 6 of the last 8 renewals.
Taniokey is trained by Sherwood so she ticks an extra box.
Newbury 2.35pm (Saturday)
Trends qualifiers:
Taniokey
Allez Encore
Cresswell Bridge
Hannah’s Princess
Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Hoping to go Boom! Boom! with Shakalakar off 122 for the Nicky and Barry pairing 240.