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Nottingham Selection

Evening all,

Inside today’s main piece you will find some Arc News and look ahead to Saturday’s Group 1 at Newmarket.

It should have been a third winning selection for the column when Giladah put her head down right on the line to win at Cork on Tuesday.  I didn’t put the improving filly up as a selection as she was 100/30 at the time of writing. Those odds where below what I wanted. Well, she drifted out to 13/2 and was returned at 11/2. Hopefully some of you got on at the bigger prices. It’s all about the price for this column. At 100/30 she was too short but at 5/1 or bigger and it's a different story. I must confess I backed her when she drifted out to 5/1. I was in the lucky position to be able to do so but it’s not luxury others have so I hope I didn’t put any of you away.

Arc News

Adayar will miss Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and will now instead head to the Champion Stakes at Ascot. The 4-year-old was taken out of the race at Tuesday’s second forfeit stage. The final confirmation stage is on Wednesday and final declarations for the race are on Thursday.

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With Adayar now a non-runner race favourite Luxembourg has been trimmed into 100/30 with Coral.

The normal limit for the Arc field has since 1993 been 20 and with 26 remaining in the race after Adayar’s defection we could see several contenders balloted out on official ratings.

There is no safety limit at Longchamp over the 1m 4f distance and there was some speculation that the 20 runner limit could be waived rather than ballot horses out Europe’s most prestigious race. For me, this notion was a bit fanciful. More than 20 runners and the race cannot support the Quinte bet. The Quinte bet according to the Racing Post accounts for 20% of betting turnover. That would be massive lost of revenue to the sport not something France Galop was likely to sacrifice.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend

There’s also Group 1 action this side of the Channel with the latest running of Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (2:42) at Newmarket on Saturday.

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A Group 1 race, the feature race of the day in Britain going off 2:42! Sorry but it is ridiculous, treating it as if it were a BAGS race at Sunderland. It is disrespectful of the race and does not reflect well on the sport. I cannot imagine it happening in any other sport. Think about it. When does the big match start? 3:03. It is just embarrassing.

Sun Chariot Stakes – Newmarket

I haven’t looked at the trends for the Sun Chariot in any detail. However, there are a few of interest.

Eight of the last twenty-five winners ran in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown.

Four of the last twenty-five winners ran in the Falmouth Stakes (Newmarket).

Three of the last twenty-five winners ran in the Atalanta Stakes (Sandown).

Six of the last ten winners of the race had one previous success at Newmarket on the Rowley Course.

On the draw front. Looking at the last ten running’s of the race. Those horses drawn in the first quarter are 6 winners from 23 bets 26% +23.13 12 placed 52%. Compare those results with those horses drawn in quarter’s 2 & 3 are 1 winner from 50 bets -47.37 8 placed. Those drawn in quarter 4 are 3 winners from 21 runners 8 placed.

Contenders:

Homeless Songs, there are two ways to look at her performance when a disappointing 5 ½ length 4th of 9 in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. My initial feeling was that the soft ground blunted her speed. Other’s think the impressive Irish 1,000 Guineas winner needed the run after a 111-day absence.

Saffron Beach won this 12 months ago and has not been out of the first two on her five starts at the track. Has looked better than ever this season especially when winning the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville two starts back she was below her best when a 3-length 2nd of 9 in the Matron Stakes last time.

Aidan O’Brien could bring over Tenebrism who won the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat (7f) at Deauville. She’s since finished runner-up to Saffron Beach and third in the Matron Stakes over a mile.

Juddmonte's exciting filly Laurel was supplemented for the race on Monday. An impressive winner on her Newmarket racecourse debut in July built on that promise with an equally impressive success at Kempton just 10-days ago. The daughter of Kingman is the least experienced of the possible runners but is open to any amount of improvement. The 3-year-old is short enough at 8/1 given she has 22lb to find with Homeless Songs on official ratings. However, we have not seen the best of her yet and that supplementary entry could be significant. Besides Laurel the Gosden’s could saddle Grande Dame who finished runner-up in the Atalanta Stakes last time.

Prosperous Voyage beat an out of sorts Inspiral in the Falmouth Stakes but was well behind that one in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time. However, her best three RPR’s have come here or on the July Course so that's a positive.

Wednesday Racing

It is Jockey Club Grassroots Series Finals Day at Nottingham with five £30,000 handicaps from 6f to 1m6f. It’s good prize money for fairly modest horses which is good to see. The best race of the quality wise isn’t at Nottingham though its at Kempton this evening. The 1m Class 2 Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap (6:00) looks a hot little race.

Kempton

6:00 – Notre Belle Bete is back on the synthetics where he is 3 from 3 including a win in a similar race over C&D in April. Below his best on a return from a 79-day break when 6th of 7 at Ascot 26-days ago. Better expected back on the all-weather.

Rebel Territory finished two places in front of Notre Belle Bete in the Ascot race when beaten favourite last time. He’s yet to win on the synthetics but shaped well enough at Lingfield early last year to think that he can be effective on the surface. There are more races to be won with the 4-year-old off his present mark, but he needs to be in better form than last time.  I think its between those two but its hard to split them.

Wednesday Selection:

Nottingham

2:45 – Iris Dancer responded well to the fitting of the first time blinkers when comfortably beating ten rivals at Hamilton ten days ago.  If the headgear continues to have the desired effect, then a 5lb penalty shouldn’t stop her if in the same form as last time. However, her best form has come with some ease in the ground although she did finish runner-up at Carlisle in July on good to firm so its not like she won’t handle quicker ground. Once again Bet365 are a standout 8/1. 5/1 elsewhere, and the 8/1 is worth taking.

Iris Dancer – 8/1 @ Bet365.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John

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