by Dave French

December 16, 2011

Aerial of Uttoxeter racecourseI've been flummoxed again today!

I had  race and a selection lined up for the system I've been trying to share with you, but a horse has just been withdrawn, taking the runners down from 8 to 7 and the place payouts from 3 to 2 places.

And as the system focuses on eachway value it's no longer a value bet.

So I've turned to one of my favourite stats men and that's Mark Foley who writes for the Betting Insiders Club.

Mark has uncovered a stats based bet for us

Uttoxeter 1. 45 Bendant 

Bendant is trained by Debra Hamer who trains down in Wales but seems to have a liking for Uttoxeter.

Mark has uncovered the following statistic.

She has a strike rate of 17% here which is excellent for a small yard, but seven winners from 14 runners priced 8/1 or less is quite exceptional.
All 7 of those winners came over hurdles from only 11 races and following the hurdlers would have returned a salivating 331% return.

Bendant started on his chase career last month and although he looks a little intimidated by the larger obstacles he has run well on his two starts this season.

Today he is back over hurdles and that may be significant especially as it's at this course that his trainer seems to have a soft spot for!

The excellent Paddy Brennan is aboard today and it looks like Bendant is well handicapped running off a mark of 88.

Bendant was heavily backed on his seasonal debut and was in contention till the last when a combination of Chepstow, lack of a recent run and a poor jump at the last cost him the race.

He runs off the same mark today and should be fitter; the winner of that race Kateal was raised 15lb for that win and looked like winning until falling two out, taking that formline literally Bendant could be very well handicapped and Looks like a bit of value at 4/1 with Paddy P and Hills.

Todays Selection

Uttoxeter 1. 45 Bendant

Feel free to give your opinion on this or any other race today in the comments below

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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  1. One of my own rules is to never back a horse to do something it has never done before, which is why I will never back a horse that has not yet won a race.
    I will leave this one alone but good luck to those who do invest.

    1. Personally I think that if you don’t bet potential then you are missing big profits, by that I mean if we are always betting that a horse will do what it has done before then there is not much value because it is plain for all to see. If we spot something before it is public then we can get value and sometimes make huge profits.

      Todays selection may or may not win but either way my opinion holds, sometimes we will be right and sometimes wrong but over the long term it is this approach that pays most.

      IMO 😉

      Thanks for posting

  2. I like Josh’s Dreamaway in the last at Ascot.

    She wasn’t disgraced in listed company at Cheltenham last time.

    Eachway bet for me 🙂

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