We have Josh's final analysis and selections for the Ascot 3:35 below.
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Here's Josh
3.35 Ascot
Tara Road – 1 point win – 10/1 Skybet
Bernardelli – 1 point win – 12/1 Bet365
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After some consideration I have decided to stick with a couple on the trends shortlist.
Tara Road has clearly has her problems but at this price I wanted to have a nibble. She is unexposed and a few races ago was 10l behind Royal Regatta off level weights. She gets 25lbs from him here today. In what could be bog like conditions her low weight may be key. Her three runs this season came at a time when all of the yard's runners were under-performing and she probably needed the first of those. Clearly there are few letters in her profile but she hasn't shown her full hand over fences and as I say, the price lured me in. While this isn't the strongest trends race you will find, she does tick the main ones that I have used.
So does Bernardelli who I believe is Nicky Richard's first runner here in nearly two years. That could be a sign in itself. He is unexposed at this trip, has a light weight, is in form, and should have no problems with the ground. Clearly he needs to step up but it is interesting that he is pitched in here. There could be plenty more to come.
The opposition…the other two on the trends shortlist that run are Aerlite Supreme and Minella Reception. The former isnt in much form and has stamina to prove in this ground, as does Minella Reception. His trainer doesnt have a great record here either. Regal Encore needs to step up on previous efforts which is possible. He is unexposed but is short enough for me. Bennys Mist is a bit too exposed compared to recent winners and races from a career high mark at the age of 10. I would like to think a more unexposed one will beat him here but he should relish conditions. Given the amount of rain around it could be a Venetia Williams benefit day across the country! Those above him have a lot of weight in what should be very testing ground.
It looks open but hopefully these two give us a run for our money, unlike last week's selection!
Good Luck,
Josh