Good morning all,
It's a bit backward this morning as I'm off to Rasen for a day out, but it's the Leicester card that I've looked at in detail as I've done the card for the Life today. The more I got into it the more I didn't like a few favourites, so I will put a Colossus up (about 9.30am, don't be late) as there's a 5k pot to have a crack at.
If you're off to Rasen today come say hello, always good to meet new people!
12.10 – Seller
Only four runners, and only one in form, so this is easy right? Well, not quite. Skeaping is the one to beat on current form, of that there’s little doubt and he should beat Clearly Capable if they run their races, but it’s the presence of Blow By Blow that makes the race tricky. Yes, the 2018 Cheltenham Festival winner (when with Gordon Elliott) now finds himself in a seller after a wretched year in which he’s yet to actually beat a horse home (and that on the two occasions when he’s not pulled up). What’s he capable of these days? He takes a huge drop in grade here after just two runs for Stef Keniry, which rather suggests they’re desperate already and he’s gone at the game.
At some point Skeaping’s busy-ish schedule this autumn will catch up with him, but he’ll probably be good enough to win this. If only there were five runners, and not four….
12.45 – Novice Hurdle
Probably only a handful to concentrate on and Hold That Taught, impressive (and backed off the boards) at Lingfield is probably a banker. Alnadam was pretty much all out to win at Uttoxeter and needs more, and I’d rather have either Shanacoole Prince or Present Chief as a back-up.
1.20 – Handicap Chase
Hopefully the dead eight stand up.
I’d like to take on likely favourite Arqalina here, not because her form isn’t decent – it is – but she doesn’t always put two good runs together, and she could bounce after her Lingfield win. Instead I’ll take Colonel Keating, who also ran well after a wind op last time, and should come on for that run, and Elite Garde, who sprang a surprise at Huntingdon but it wasn’t a fluke, and he just might have now got his act together.
1.55 – Handicap Hurdle
A race where I really want to try and get at least one of the front two beaten. Chiciro Vallis hosed up at Ludlow last week and will probably win if he repeats that, but given that was his first win for two years, that surely isn't a given. Never Equalled looks more likely of the front pair to run his race but he’s no star either, and you can give a squeak to both By The Sea now he steps up in trip (well backed already too) and Ulysees on trainer form. Small chance of an upset.
2.30 – Mares Maiden Hurdle
Here’s a favourite I really want to take on in Whiteoak Fleur. She sets the standard, but when that standard is a rating of 108 and she’s not really improving, then anything with improvement has to be given consideration. Velkera has a first-race chance on her run behind Deputy’s Oscar and her run in what was basically unraceable ground at Rasen last time is easy enough to forgive, and a more left-field selection is Love At Midnight, who might appreciate this stiffer test after showing a bit of ability on a couple of occasions.
3.05 – Handicap Chase
A low-grade handicap chase and a few of these are easy enough to give the red pen to.
I like the chance of Mr Dorrell Sage, a horse that has plenty of size and really ought to do well over fences, and Wenceslaus, who is running well at present and has his conditions again today. One of those ought to be in the frame, you’d hope.
Today's selection – By The Sea 1.55
Good luck with all your bets today,