“A chance of light rain from mid-afternoon” said the forecast. How wrong they were. Soaked by the time we got back to our digs last night, took us an hour and more to dry out!

Suffice to say it's riding very slow out on the track, you could see that for yourselves yesterday. Expect a raft of non-runners. And sell finishers for the National at anything around 11….

Anyway, a decent start to the week yesterday, tipping wise – here's hoping we can build on that today. Read on…

Was all for going in on Tedham here, but although he handled heavy ground well enough when second to Getaway Trump, his impressive Wincanton win came on quicker, so there's a slight question mark over him. Enough to make me look elsewhere at the prices, anyway. Instead, I'm going to try two small e/w bets on Admiral Barratry, who attracted good support at Sandown last time and ran a solid race in soft ground – the addition of cheekpieces today may well eke a bit more out in him, and at a huge price, Caltex, reverting to hurdles here after a short chase campaign but ran well here in December when second to Ballyhill (a race that's worked out okay) in soft ground. He's 3lb higher here but conditions seem fine, and he clearly handles the track, so could go well.

2.20 – Novices Hurdle

Sofia's Rock coming out makes this far less of an appealing contest, as I was going to try Winston C e/w against the main protagonists, but with the seven runners I can pass the race over.

2.50 – Novices Chase

I'll be cheering on Lostintranslation, one of my favourite horses this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if this step up to 3m saw him in an even better light. I'm half-tempted in by Top Ville Ben at 18-1 as a small win bet against the front pair though. He was an early faller in the RSA but showed no ill effects from that when panning them at Wetherby a week later. It's not hard to think he might have gone well in the RSA, at least for a long way, and if they can get him into a rhythm on the front early, he could surprise these. Soft ground won't be any issue either.

3.25 – Melling Chase

A great race in prospect, with Waiting Patiently, Politilogue and Min all doing battle once more. There's little to choose between the three – if pushed, I'd just go with Politologue, who likes it here and won't mind the ground, but it looks a race to enjoy rather than bet on.

4.05 – Topham Chase

Call Me Magic is the right favourite now the rain has come. That's going to turn this into more of a stamina test, which will suit him fine, and he already has a good run to his name when fourth in the Becher Chase here in December, where he possibly did too much too soon. If he jumps around safely here, you'll need a sledgehammer to knock him out of the six.

I'll back him up with Kilcrea Vale, fourth in this last year and just a pound higher today. The rain will have helped his cause as well, as he stayed on really well once it was all over, and it's not hard to see him going well today under very similar ground to last year.

I was going to give Henryville a go as well, given Peter Bowen used to win this for fun, and Henryville himself looks very well handicapped these days. It was much better at Fakenham last time and for landing a bit on the back foot at the last, may well have won. He needs to drift out to 40-1 and bigger to risk him on this ground, though, with his best form coming on good ground. Has got round over the fences, too, so there's a bit to like.

4.40 – Novice Hurdle

The more I look at this the more I think there's an upset to be had. Think a few of those at the front of the market have something to prove, either regarding trip or what they have actually achieved, and I'll chance a bit on two outsiders e/w – The Captain's Inn, who I saw win at Leicester and then followed that up with a proper slogger's win at Uttoxeter, where he looked in trouble at various stages but simply outstayed them all in heavy ground. Stepping up to 3m here, which should suit. I'll also try a quid or two e/w on Arthur Mac, who has loads to find on form but has always given the impression he's a proper stayer and I thought he ran a stormer under a penalty when second to the useful Nestor Park at Newcastle two starts back. We've had two 25-1 and a 33-1 winner of this in the past ten years, so shocks are possible…

My bets today –

1.50 – Admiral Barratry/Caltex (both small e/w, 6 places Skybet)

2.50 – Top Ville Ben (small win)

4.05 – Call It Magic (e/w) / Kilcrea Vale (small e/w) (both Skybet, 6 places)

4.40 – The Captain's Inn/Arthur Mac (small e/w, Paddy Power 4 places)

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.