Carrying on from yesterday, today I want to talk about step 2 in the plan for preparing yourself to win at betting.
At the end of the week we'll put together everything we've covered in the week into a plan that you can work to get yourself on a professional footing.
Step 2 is – Analyse Your Own Personal Emotional/ Psychological Make Up
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Most bettors don't like losers and find it hard to tolerate long losing runs.
Even if they have done their research and they know that their system or method has had a losing run of, say, 10 in the past. They can still crack and give up after a losing run of 5 or 6.
If you can't stand losing runs then you need to be looking at high strike rate lower priced selections in the methods that you use.
Betting at shorter odds at a higher strike rate may give you the confidence to bet with higher stakes. But again you need to think about how much you could lose and still remain calm and focused on your goal.
Obviously with higher stakes it doesnt take much of a losing run to run up a big deficit.
I know bettors who will risk a grand or £1500 on a short priced selection, but if 2 or 3 of those lose on the bounce you need balls of steel to stay cool and maintain your judgement.
The important thing is to stick within your comfort zone. Ideally you should be betting at a level such that if you lost 10 bets on the bounce that it wouldnt effect your judgement. And wouldnt effect your life at all.
If you had a £1000 bank for example, how would you feel if you staked £2 and lost that bet?
Not bothered I guess. What about if you staked £5 and lost, how would you feel? What if you staked £2 and had a losing streak and lost 10 bets in a row, £20 loss.
I guess you wouldn’t be too bothered if you knew the system had a good history, so you need to look at losing streaks and factor in the level of loss that you could comfortably tolerate.
Greed plays an important factor for those that are in the 98% bracket. Greed can be a very subtle emotion, and we all operate greed to some degree now and then. With betting however, it is very important to isolate greed completely, because greed is your enemy, and it is out to trip you up.
The best way to keep greed in check is to assume that your bet is going to lose, and to ensure that the stake amount is set according to your emotional make up. Once you have this level set, you are ready to continue.
The reason it is important to bet within your emotional comfort zone, is so that you don't pull out of a losing streak prematurely.
Most people when they bet, pullout halfway through or near the end of the losing streak. They determine that the system or the tipster is no good, but in fact, quite often, the bettor pulls out prematurely and suffers from a reduced bank.
With proven successful systems, the losing streak usually pulls out back into a profit, and continues to make an increased profit throughout the year.
For those that have pulled out however, have ended up with a loss and have not enjoyed the profitable return that the system has made. Those that bet according to their emotional/ psychological make-up, are more likely to stick to the system to see the losing streak through.
Todays Selection ourtesy of the Betting Insiders Club.
Yesterday’s selection Kopkap faded out of it at the business end of the race.
For today we are turning to our stats guru Mark Foley’s new “Owner Watch” angle with the 3yo Agerzam who would most likely have won last time out but for meeting interference in the final furlong. The owner has a 39% strike rate at the track in the last few years.
Agerzam (2030 Kemp) 7/4 – Totesport/Paddy Power