Good morning all,
I know on Saturday I promised you some eyecatchers for your trackers today, but after a look at Saturday's action and seeing some huge prices for the ones I like, I can't help but put that off until tomorrow and put up a few bets for Super Saturday today instead! Eyecatchers tomorrow, I promise…
Chances are, given he's number 33 on the list, that we won't get a run with Ripp Orff but as long as he's declared to run, we'll get our money back anyway and if by some miracle he scrapes in, there's no way he'll go off a 25-1 chance (Hills, Ladbrokes, Betfred).
There's no doubting that he saves his best efforts for Ascot but he's perfectly capable of classy handicap form away from Berkshire too. In fact, last summer, on the July course, he won a 1m handicap here before finding Vintager (who came good in a G2 in France last time out) too good for him, so his form at the track is hardly shabby. He's now back on the same mark as when beating Cape Byron at Ascot last September and I really wouldn't worry about his blowout at Epsom last time – I'm coming to the conclusion he really doesn't like the place, having twice gone off favourite for handicaps there, only to get well stuffed.
It'll probably come as no surprise that I am sticking with Fairyland after her very good effort in the Kings Stand at Ascot, where she was only beaten 3l by Blue Point and looking for all the world like she would improve a bit for a sixth furlong, and I've been backing her for this for a couple of weeks now.
As I said when she ran at Ascot, Aidan does have a knack of getting them right when he drops back in trip with them, as he did with U S Navy Flag when winning the race last year. Fairyland strikes me as a very similar type, and a well-run 6f with a hill finish could just be her cup of tea. She twice beat The Mackem Bullet when last tried over 6f, and that form hasn't worked out badly at all (TMB was then taken to America, last seen winning a Grade 2 at Keeneland). Gets a nice bit of weight as a 3yo filly and I like her chance. Plenty of 16-1 around.
Looks a wide open affair but if Ropey Guest is a 33-1 chance for this, I'm a Dutchman.
Saw him first time out at Nottingham in a very good race that's working out well enough, and even though he went off the rank outsider, he looked the type to improve with a bit of time and experience. He ran better again at Yarmouth two starts ago but it's his latest effort when sixth, beaten 2 1/2 lengths in the Coventry, that really caught the eye. He flew home after getting outpaced there and promises to be very well suited by a seventh furlong. That piece of form is just about the best in the race and it's backed up by a very solid speed figure, so it's no fluke. Yes, others will improve but so could he, and if he runs here I see him going off around a 14-1 chance, tops.
With that, he is also entered up in the July Stakes on Thursday (although not yet declared as I write this) and a maiden on the Friday, but the owner likes a crack at the big ones and I can see him running here. Keep stakes small anyway, just in case!
Today's racing makes next to no appeal and Amber Gambler (Uttox 8.20) is no more than a tentative selection. Basically you're backing a horse that could be absolutely gone at the game, having shown next to nothing in his last two starts, but you've only got to go wind back 15 months to find him winning a Class 2 chase at Haydock from a 12lb higher mark. Cheekpieces a return to hurdles and Bryony are given a try to coax him back to life, he'll either win or pull up in my opinion, so a small win bet at 14s is the advice.
Good luck with all your bets today,