By Jamie Pacheco of www.bettingmaestro.com
The draw is odds-on ahead of the Second Test at Lord’s. No prizes for guessing why so I’ll cut to the chase and tell you. It’s the weather. Rain is forecast for Wednesday for most of the day and plenty more for the days after that.
There is however an argument to say that’s a price worth laying. Not only have weather forecasts been a bit off of late but Umpires really do their best to get the players out on the ground whenever possible. With TV channels and paying punters desperate for the action to get under way, it’s understandable.
Those two reasons alone mean we might get enough overs in to force a result but there are other ones. Lord’s has been a tough place to bat at over the past few years in Test matches so assuming the wicket plays to form, it may be that if 260 plays 240 in the first innings, we’ll have plenty of time to get a result even if we do lose a fair few overs to rain.
But there’s another reason. Bar the barely-human Steve Smith, Joe Root and maybe Ben Stokes and Usman Khawaja, not many players on the field have the capacity to bat for long periods in difficult conditions. We might get an odd quick fifty here or there but are unlikely to witness the sort of long, laboured innings that tend to result in draws. So take your pick: lay the draw at odds-on on Betfair or back one of the sides at odds that are inflated, as a result of the draw price.
I don’t really have a opinion on which of the two teams that is because I think they’re pretty evenly-matched so there’s another far riskier but potentially far more profitable way of going about your business. If it’s a wicket likely to favour seam bowlers rather than batsmen or spinners, and classy ones at that, then let’s go with one bowler from each side. They need to fit that profile of being classy seam bowlers and of being in form…for man-of-the-match honours. The nice thing about that strategy of picking one from each side being that if it does end in a draw after all, they’ll both be in contention anyway. The two men in question: Stuart Broad and Pat Cummins.
Back Stuart Broad to be man-of-the-match @ 15.0 with Skybet
Back Pat Cummins to be man-of-the-match @ 15.0 with Skybet