Author Archives: James Pacheco

IPL Betting: Go with the Saffers

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Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians Tuesday 15:30

An excellent result last time out with David Warner getting his 50 (he scored 81) to see us rewarded at 3.0 and the Kings XI hitting more sixes than the Sunrisers, despite losing the match by 45 runs. That was available at 2.0.

So on we go and it’s the Qualifier tomorrow. If you’re not an avid IPL fan, here’s a reminder of how it all works. The teams who finish first and second in the Group Stages get two bites of the cherry when it comes to making the final. Whoever wins the Qualifier goes straight to the Final. Whoever loses will then play the winner of the Eliminator (played between the teams who finished third and fourth in the Group Stages) and if they win that- known as the Qualifier 2 – they will then make the final by the back door, so to speak.

Anyway, it’s Chennai at home to Mumbai tomorrow and whereas my first instinct was that Chennai were a cracking price as underdogs given they’re defending champions, the most successful team in the history of the IPL and at home for good measure, there’s a serious spanner in the works: Mumbai keep on beating Chennai. It’s now four times out of the last five that Mumbai have beaten them. But then again, Chennai are often at their best when the pressure is really on. You could therefore make a case for either side, but not at the odds on offer.

I’d rather go with two Chennai players – who know this ground inside out – to put in strong performances, whether they’re on the winning side, or not.

Imran Tahir is the IPL’s second-highest wicket-taker with 21, just four behind fellow South African Kasigo Rabada, who has 25.  Tahir has played every match, bowled his maximum allocation of four overs whenever it was possible for him to do so and knows this track better than anyone. This season 70% of the wickets Chennai have taken at home have fallen to spin, so you can see why the smart move is to go with the team’s star spinner. Yes, Tahir is understandably favourite. But I’ve seen plenty of favourites for team top bowler who tick as many boxes as he does available at around 2.5; so the 3.75 isn’t to be sniffed at.

With the bat, I’m putting my faith in Faf du Plessis. It hasn’t quite been as good a season as you’d expect from someone normally as consistent as South African's World Cup captain at first glance but it’s worth delving a little deeper. He actually has the best average (39) of anyone on the side bar MS Dhoni (122) for the season. And if you’re wondering about Dhoni’s average, yes he’s played extremely well this season but because he bats between 4-6 he’s also had six not outs to boost that average through the roof.

But back to Du Plessis. Like so many champion players, he seems to be peaking at just the right time. Last time out he got 96 and before that it was 39, so he’s obviously in good nick. It’s also worth remembering that it was precisely in this very match last year – Qualifier 1, in this case against the Sunrisers – that he scored a match-winning 67 not out.  Not that an excellent innings over a year ago suggests he’s going to go out and do it again but it certainly doesn’t do any harm; it’s proof he handles the pressure well in the biggest IPL games.

On home soil, opening the batting and in good form, he’s considerably bigger than I would have expected at 4.33.   

Back Imran Tahir to be Chennai Top Bowler @ 3.75 with Betfair Sportsbook

Back Faf du Plessis to be Chennai Top Batsman @ 4.33 with Skybet.

You can read more cricket betting insight with particular focus on the Cricket World Cup from Jamie Pacheco at www.bettingmaestro.com.

IPL Betting: Kings to hit Sunrisers for six (Monday 15:30)

By Jamie Pacheco of www.bettingmaestro.com.

Before we get stuck in, a quick reminder of how we fared last time out. Sandeep Lamichhane ended up not playing at all, Shikhar Dhawan got to 50 but his score was beaten by Rishab Pant and our two point bet won pretty comfortably to give us a small profit on the day. Which of course is the most important thing.

On Monday it’s the Kings X against the Hyderabad Sunrisers and it looks a tough one to call on the match winner market with hosts Hyderabad understandable favourites but not consistent enough for us to side with them and the Kings not big enough to deserve a punt on them, either.

But there’s an excellent bet elsewhere. Consider this: the Kings have hit a huge 83 sixes this season and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a huge surprise when we tell you who opens the batting for them: Chris Gayle. 32 of those came from his bat. His opening partner KL Rahul is no slouch, either, hitting 15 of them. And to prove the point that it’s not just two or three of them doing the boundary-clearing, no fewer than 10 different players in the team have hit at least one.

It’s a very different story for the Sunrisers. They’ve hit just 53 and of those, 18 were struck by England’s Jonny Bairstow, who is no longer playing in the IPL as he’s reported for international duty ahead of the World Cup. So that’s their second biggest six hitter out of the equation.

So with all that in mind, what price should the Kings be to get the most sixes? Most firms are going about 1.67 with a couple offering 1.8 and that would be borderline value so we have reason to get excited when we see that Bet365 are going 2.0 about them. You can get that same price with Betfair (Exchange). It’s too good to turn down.

Having said all that, we wouldn’t mind a couple of lusty blows from the bat of the Sunriser’s David Warner. He had a rare ‘failure’ last time out (just 37) but got to 50 in his previous five innings.

That makes it eight times out of 11 that he passed 50 this IPL (in one of them he went on to get 100) so it’s hard to understand why you can get 3.0 in something that’s happened in 72% of his innings this season. His chances are further boosted by the fact that a) this is generally quite a high-scoring ground and b) the Kings XI don’t necessarily have one of the better bowling attacks.

2pts Back Kings XI to hit the most sixes @ 2.0 with Bet365/Betfair

1pt Back David Warner to score a 50 @ 3.0 with Ladbrokes/Coral

You can read previews, analysis and tips from Jamie Pacheco ahead of the Cricket World Cup at www.bettingmaestro.com.

Dhawan to help Delhi to IPL win

Rajasthan Royals v Delhi Capitals Monday 15:30

The Rajasthan Royals are a troubled side. They appointed Ajinkja Rahane as captain for the season but were forced to replace him with Steve Smith after a string of poor results. They splashed the cash on Ben Stokes only to watch him have an incredibly ordinary season so far, a 46 with the bat the best he has to show for his efforts among a series of single figure scores. He’s been a little better with the ball, but not much.

The one man you can normally rely on – the freakishly talented Jos Buttler– has flown home for the birth of his baby, depriving the Royals of their best batsman for the remainder of the tournament. Although they did admittedly win their last game without him anyway.

The much-talked about Jofra Archer has decent if not spectacular and of the Indian players only S Gopal has really stood out. It all helps to explain why they’re currently seventh out of eight.

It’s been a very different story for the Delhi Capitals. Their Top 5 is loaded with T20 hard-hitting specialists and the good news is that four of them are Indian, meaning they have three overseas spots to sort out the all-rounder position and still field two overseas bowlers. The result is a good balance to their side and helps explain why they’re in third and looking very good for a play-off spot.

The runs have been shared round accordingly which is always a good thing but there’s no doubt who the star with the ball has been.  South African pacer Kasigo Rabada has 21 wickets, remarkably six more than anyone else in the IPL. 1.86 would have been a pretty good price about Delhi, even with Buttler playing. Given he’s not, it’s a very good price indeed.

We mentioned that Delhi Top 5 already. Four of them have passed the 220 run barrier for the season and the one with the most runs of all in the side is Shikhar Dhawan, India’s opener in T20s and ODIs. He has 347 runs, 20 more than P Shaw and is the only Delhi player to score three fifties this season. Fresh from a fluent 56 last time out, you have to wonder why he’s third-favourite, rather than favourite, at 4.2 with Betfair Sportsbook. Shreyas Iyer is 3.5 despite having considerably less runs than him and batting at three while Rishabh Pant is 3.75 despite having 90 runs less than Dhawan and batting down at five. It makes no sense but all the better for us.

Rabada is just 2.5 to be Delhi’s top bowler and despite being the outstanding bowler of the IPL so far, we can’t have him at that price. Not only is it too short in any circumstances in a one-off match but we might be getting to the stage where batsmen decide to play to not get out against him, rather than actually taking him on.

We prefer Sandeep Lamichhane at 4.5 with Royal Panda. He sat out a few matches towards the start of the tournament but as the pitches start to wear, his mystery spin will be more and more dangerous and he’ll almost certainly play here.  Last time out he took three wickets and with the pitch expected to turn, it could be him rather than Rabada having a wicket that assists him. At almost twice the price, the value certainly lies with the Nepalese spinner rather than the South African quick.

2pts Back Delhi to win @ 1.86 on Betfair Exchange

1pt Back Shikhar Dhawan to be Delhi Top Batsman @ 4.2

1pt Back Sandeep Lamichhane to Delhi Top Bowler @ 4.5 with Royal Panda

You can read lots of cricket betting content ahead of the 2019 Cricket World Cup from Jamie Pacheco at https://www.bettingmaestro.com/.

Big Bash Winner: Stars can go all the way

David M is back tomorrow, so today a little cricket action from James Pacheco and I have included a racing selection also…

What does everyone need to do?

We’re reaching the business end of the Big Bash and with no matches till Thursday, I’m turning my attentions to the winner market.

The Hobart Hurricanes, the most impressive team are in the semis and very likely to top the group stages and have a home semi-final. The Sydney Sixers are also through, as are the Melbourne Renegades. Those two could still top the group but it’s unlikely with the Hurricanes needing just one win from their last two matches. And that’s assuming that both the Renegades or the Stars win and improve their net run rates. First from the Group Stages plays fourth with the former at home and second plays third with the Group Stage runner-up playing on home territory.

Clear as mud?Continue Reading

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