Sri Lanka v England 1st ODI starts Wednesday 10:00

Match-winner market – Neither side appeals

England play Sri Lanka in the 1^st ODI on Wednesday morning. The first point to make is that the prices on the match odds market are about right. England are around the 1.4 mark with just about everyone while Sri Lanka’s price is somewhere between 2.7 and 3.2, depending on who you’re betting with.

Let’s cut to the chase. England are a far better ODI side than Sri Lanka when it comes to batting and fielding, no doubt about that. Bowling: well if it’s really spinning then Sri Lanka may have the edge here and that’s where the hosts’ best chance may well lie: preparing a proper ‘bunsen’, picking at least three spinners and consistently bowling in the right areas. We’ll have to wait and see.

So England are very justified favourites but their record in Sri Lanka is awful. Six wins out of 21 there over the years. That’s a win in just 28% of their matches on Sri Lankan soil so all of a sudden we start to think twice about piling into a 1.4 shot. Not that we’d think about smashing into short prices, anyway.

But are Sri Lanka all of a sudden a value bet as big outsiders? Well, a lot of that damage in the past was done by Sri Lankan sides containing the likes of Muralitharan, Sangakarra, Jayawardene, Jayasuriya and Vaas. All now retired.

Their current ODI side doesn’t have a single player who would get anywhere near a World XI. Heck, only one or two of them would even get into the England side at the moment. So with a weak-looking side and an awful record over the past couple of years- 30 losses in their past 40 games and a run of 12 consecutive defeats in 2017 – they can’t be trusted, either.

I’m not going to take a punt on the England top batsman market, either. The Top 4 in the batting are available at almost identical odds, have very similar records and if you’re going to play this market, you might as well just pick one at random and hope for the best because it’s hard to see where the value lies.

Sri Lanka Top Batsman – Perera and…Perera.

But it’s a different story on the top Sri Lanka batsman market, where as the title of this preview suggests, it’s about two Pereras.

So bad was their performance in the recent Asia Cup that it’s fair to say no-one is in form. But in Kusal Perera Sri Lanka have a player who ticks the main boxes for a top batsman in ODIs. He has experience under his belt (80 ODIs), has played England plenty of times in the past, bats in the Top 4, has solid long-term numbers and for those who consider this to be an actual advantage, is left handed.

But sometimes it’s not so much about numbers as it is mindset.

This is a man who will attack you from ball one and that could be a key advantage over other Sri Lankan players who might look to bat more sedately. You see, England are ODI bullies. When they’re batting they like to go after bowlers. When they’re bowling, they don’t like batsmen showing no fear against them. Look at how they fell apart when Virat Kohli was hitting them to all parts in the summer.

But ultimately it is of course about price. Is Kusal Perera value at the 4.5 that the likes of Bet365 are laying him at? No, but given what we said about him so far, he is at odds of 7.0, which is what Ladbrokes and Coral are offering on him. I can only assume they think he will bat lower than four (unlikely) or that it’s just a mistake in terms of how they priced him up. After all, with the long-serving linchpin Angelo Matthews currently out of the side and skipper Dinesh Chandimal just coming back from injury, he may not have much to beat.

But it may be worth having a saver on the other Perera, Thisara. This is a hard-hitting all-rounder who particularly likes to punish spin and who we expect to see batting at 6, 7 or 8.

If Sri Lanka bat first he’s unlikely to have much of a chance because someone from the top order should get to at least 70. But Sri Lankan batting collapses are as frequent these days as England ones in the 90s and a more likely scenario where he’d be in the game would be this: if England post a big score, Sri Lanka have to go for it from early on, lose wickets up front by being too aggressive and he comes in at 6 or 7 with a top score or 30-odd to beat.

Given what we’ve seen of them in the last year or so, it’s not that unlikely. Given what we’ve seen of Perera over the years, he may just need 30 or so balls to get to 50, particularly if he’s up against the spinners. At odds of 15, it’s worth having him onside as a saver.

 

Recommended Bets

1pt Back Kusal Perera to be Top Sri Lanka Batsman @ 7.0 with Ladbrokes/Coral.

0.5pts Back Thisara Perera to be Top Sri Lanka Batsman @ 15.0 with Ladbrokes/Paddypower/Betfair Sportsbook

 

You can read more about all aspects of cricket betting including explanations on how to play different markets and reviews of the best Cricket sportsbooks at www.bettingmaestro.com.

 

 

England are 1-0 up in the 5-match Test Series. That was after beating India at Edgbaston by 31 runs. The Second Test starts at Lord's on Thursday and there are good reasons to think England, the 2.0 favourites, must be opposed. Here they are:

 

1. The First Test was close

 

When you’ve played for three and a half days, a win by 31 runs isn’t much. It proves what many thought before a ball was bowled: these are two very closely-matched sides. Had just the one Indian batsman bar Virat Kohli buckled down in the fourth innings, they would have won. The prices don’t reflect the gulf in difference between the two sides.

 

2. Stokes absence will hurt England

 

As is the case with all champion all-rounders, they inevitably seem to always contribute with either bat or ball. Ian Botham or say Imran Khan were the same. For good measure, Stokes often makes a game-changing contribution as a fielder as well.

 

At Edgbaston it was with the ball, with Stokes taking six wickets in the game and perhaps most crucially of all, the wicket of Kohli in the fourth innings.

 

Except of course, there is no Stokes this time. This isn’t the time or place to discuss ‘that night’ in Bristol. Suffice to say he’s missing because he’ll be in court.

 

By all accounts Chris Woakes or Moeen Ali will play in his absence. Fine. Two perfectly good and experienced Test all-rounders. But the former has little cricket under his belt of late and the latter had been out-of-form in Tests for a while before finally being dropped in the Winter. Are we really meant to believe either of those two can go out at Lord's and do what Stokes does?

 

3. India likely to learn from selection mistakes

 

India made two selection mistakes ahead of that Edgbaston Test. The first was to pick the dashing KL Rahul at Number 3 ahead of Chet Pujara. If it was an ODI or a T20 it would be a no contest: Rahul every time. But this is Test cricket. It’s not pretty 20s that win it, it’s long, grinding, patient, disciplined innings that win Tests. Admittedly Pujara had been somewhat out of form for Yorkshire in the build-up to the 1^st Test. But the simple fact he’s been playing County cricket all summer in England and averages over 50 in Tests should have meant he should have played anyway. The selectors are unlikely to make the same mistakes again. Pujara will almost certainly play ahead of Rahul and India will be stronger for it.

They’ll also be better for playing left arm spinner Kuldeep Yadav. Not only will it probably turn more at Lord's than at Edgbaston anyway but even if it doesn’t, it’s always a good idea to play two spinners against England when possible. Proof of that was off-spinner Ravi Ashwin’s seven wickets in the first match. And what Yadav may lack in experience compared to Ashwin, he has in mystery balls. England won’t want Yadav to play and that tells you all you need to know.

Assuming India make these two changes, they’ll be far stronger.

 

4. Kohli could be even better

 

A few people are suggesting England’s bowlers might start to have worked out Kohli. Really? Interesting, because I saw him score 200 effortless, ‘almost’ chanceless runs in the First Test. He got out playing an attacking shot in the first innings when batting with number 11 and made one mistake in the Second innings.

If anything, after those two excellent knocks he’s likely to be even better this time round after having had a look at England’s bowlers in English conditions, rather than the other way round where it’s England bowlers who are meant to have learnt something.

Kohli could easily score far more than 200 runs at Lord's and then the hosts will really be up against it.

 

5. England don’t like it at Lord's

 

Ah, Lord’s. Home of cricket. HQ. England’s fortress. A big boost. Right? Wrong.

It may be all those things but historically, England don’t like playing at Lord’s. Consider this: in 134 Test matches played there, they won 53, lost 32 and drew 49. That’s a win/loss rate of just 1.656. Australia’s win rate at Lord’s is 2.42!

Contrast that with Edgbaston. In 51 games in Birmingham England have won 28, lost eight and drawn 15. That’s a win rate of 3.5 and over double what it is at Lord’s. So considering these historical stats, it’s perhaps hardly surprising that England won at Edgbaston.

Why is that? Hard to say. At Edgbaston the ball does swing a bit more than at Lord’s but that can’t be the full story.

A less ‘technical’ explanation could be this. At Lord’s the members are polite and well-behaved. They don’t exactly spur their team on. It’s a very different story at Edgbaston where a raucous crowd, often beer-fuelled (!) get behind their team and give them a boost when they need it. And of course the more that happens over the years, the more England win there and the more they believe they can win there next time.

The reasons aren’t as important as the bare stats. And they say England struggle at Lord’s.

 

Conclusion:

England must be opposed at Lord’s. There may be some rain around on Saturday (at last), which brings the draw into the equation and makes a lay of England at 2.1 on Betfair the conservative option. The bolder option and arguably the better value one is to back India at a best price of 3.15, also on Betfair.

 

James Pacheco is a betting writer and tipster. You can find explanations on how to play all manner of football and cricket betting markets with tried and tested winning strategies for them, plus lots of other insightful betting content at www.bettingmaestro.com.