Author Archives: James Pacheco

Big Bash – Stars v Scorchers: By process of elimination…

Khan missed out…

A close call last time out. Rashid Khan played an excellent cameo with the bat, scoring 21 off just seven balls to get the Strikers to a competitive total of 158, before bowling a spell of four overs and taking one wicket for 18 runs in what was the team’s match-winning contribution with the ball. On another day that all-round effort would have been enough to have won the man-of-the-match award over Jake Weatherald and his 71 off 44 balls. But it wasn’t. By the way, if you’re interested in reading about which players have won the MOM award in the Big Bash so far and what type of players they are in terms of their role for future betting, you can do so here.Continue Reading

Big Bash: Melbourne Renegades v Adelaide Strikers Thursday 08:15

Strikers are the stand-out side

If you cast your minds back a few weeks ago to the preview of the opening match of the Big Bash, we were able to back the Adelaide Strikers at 2.0 to beat the Brisbane Heat. They won that one pretty easily and are now two from four. But despite being away from home against the Renegades, who have the same record as them, they’re now just a best price of 1.8 ahead of tomorrow’s match.

That’s because the odds-compilers are realising that the defending champions are probably the best side in the competition. That’s quite a statement considering the Hobart Hurricanes are on four wins from four but I’ll stand by it. The Hurricanes have played three matches at home so far and been able to chase in each of them – a huge advantage over there – and it will be interesting to see how they cope if the toss doesn’t g their way over the next couple of matches.

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Big Bash Boxing Day Tips- Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers (08.15 start)

We had a good start to the Big Bash last time out with the two point bet on the Adelaide Strikers to beat the Brisbane Heat at 2.0 making up for the loss of one point when Peter Siddle didn’t cop for top bowler honours for the Strikers.

It’s Perth Scorchers versus our old pals the Adelaide Strikers again on Boxing Day morning and this is an extremely tough match to call between the two pre-tournament favourites who haven’t started particularly well. The Strikers followed up that win with a defeat against the Melbourne Renegades while Perth have so far lost both of their matches, though admittedly they were both on the road. So, with the odds making them hard to split and no particularly good reason to side with one over the other, we’ll have to look elsewhere for some good bets.

If you’re the sort of punter who wants instant wins and rewards, look away. These won’t be bets for you. But if you’re the sort who like me believes that being patient and consistently backing overpriced bets is the way to go, knowing that many of them may lose but that it’s the big-priced winners that secure you long-term profits, then read on.

Cartwright a stand-out bet

Hilton Cartwright top-scored for Perth last time out batting at five after scoring 53. Backing someone batting that low down in a T20 is fraught with danger, of course. After all, if the top order hang around, whether they’re scoring quickly or not, there simply aren’t enough balls left for a Number 5 to get more than whoever is on the highest score.

But there are good reasons to think this may not be the case with Cartwright. First, there’s every chance he’ll get shifted up the order. Opener Sam Whiteman has failed twice from two knocks, Englishman David Willey hasn’t fared much better batting at three so the Perth management may well decide to promote the in-form man up the order.

But there’s a safety net of sorts even if he doesn’t bat any higher; as hinted just above the Scorchers’ top order isn’t exactly firing so he may well arrive at the crease batting at five with just 20 or so to beat and enough balls to do so.

Cartwright’s 53 was no fluke by the way. He was the Scorchers’ second highest scorer last year batting in that middle-order, just three runs short of the highest scorer, so clearly knows his way around a T20 innings.

And now to the best bit. He’s available at 6.5, 8.0 and 9.0 with three well-known bookies but is as big as 13.0 at the time of writing with Betfair Sportsbook and PaddyPower. The 8.0 would be borderline value given the question marks around where he might bat but the 13.0 is definitely worth chancing.

Odds look long on Short

A lot of what has been said above also applies to the Adelaide Strikers’ Matthew Short. Well, sort of. On the one hand the Strikers’ top order has fared better than the Scorchers’ so he may a) have a higher score to beat b) not see wickets fall as quickly as they may for the Scorchers. But the good news is that he’ll bat at 4 and like Cartwright, is fresh from a good knock himself. He scored a superb 65 off 41 balls last time out and has impressed every time I’ve seen him bat.

He’s arguably not the stand-out value that Cartwright is but he’ll almost certainly have his chances to have a go at getting that top score for his side and 8.0 rates as pretty good value. By the way, he's not a bad price at 15.0 to be man-of-the-match. He also bowls and if he combined a couple of wickets with 40 or 50 odd with the bat he'd be in serious contention. But then again, that would also be reliant on the Strikers winning for him to get the award which is far from guaranteed, so it's not worth being too greedy here.

1pt Back Hilton Cartwright to be Scorchers Top Batsman @ 13.0 with Paddypower/Betfair Sportsbook

1pt Back Matt Short to be Adelaide Strikers Top Batsman @ 8.0 with Ladbrokes

 

You can read plenty more Big Bash tips and all sorts of other cricket betting content at from Jamie Pacheco at www.bettingmaestro.com.

Big Bash Tips: Brisbane Heat v Adelaide Strikers

Just before we get onto the serious business of some Big Bash bets, I’d just like to say that this great competition starts on Wednesday morning, runs till mid-February and I’ll be providing tips on it right here at Daily Punt every Tuesday, looking ahead to each week’s Wednesday game. For further tips on the Big Bash, you can go to www.bettingmaestro.com to read them.

The Bash Brothers

So let’s start by looking at the opening game: Brisbane Heat v Adelaide Strikers.

It pits a pretty flaky side in the Heat against last year’s winners, the Strikers. The Heat are a bit of a one-trick-pony with explosive opening duo Brendon McCullum and Chris Lynn (the Bash Brothers) as good as any opening partnership in the game. Whatever happens, they’ll score at breakneck pace and if they hang about for 10 overs or more together, you wouldn’t be too surprised if they’ve put 100 or so on the board which could well be game over for the opposition.

All well and good but there are two problems with that. The first is that McCullum is pretty much past it. He’s 37 now and whereas a few years ago he was an aggressive player who tried to hit a boundary off most balls and ran a few ones and twos off the good balls, now he just tries to smash the cover off everything without much thought over where it ends up. He may get away with a few courtesy of some edges and miscues but against quality bowling, he’s unlikely to last too long. The other problem they have is that there isn’t really much more to come after them: Joe Burns and Alex Ross are reliable old heads but not more than that and they don’t bat deep so it’s pretty much all down to McCullum and Lynn.

An even bigger problem is that they don’t bowl well. Consider this: last season they went at 8.2 runs an over for the duration of their campaign. The Strikers in contrast, went at 7.1 So on average, the Strikers conceded 20 odd runs less a match. Huge difference when you consider their batting strike rate was virtually identical.

Strikers better all round

But there’s a lot to like about the Strikers as slight outsiders beyond that. Like the fact that they’re the defending champions who with the exception of Travis Head have pretty much the same team as last year. Or the fact that the two players making up their own opening partnership of Weatherald and Carey were ranked 2 and 3 respectively on the Big Bash top batsman rankings last year. They may not score as quickly as the Bash Brothers but they’re more prolific. Or the fact they have Rashid Khan, last year’s joint-top bowler, this season’s favourite for top bowler and also for player of the tournament. More importantly, they’re the better team and rate good value at 2.0.

Side with Siddle

Speaking of Khan, if my life depended on picking the Strikers’ top bowler tomorrow, I’d go with him. I'd probably also go with him if I was picking the overall Big Bash top bowler. But that’s obviously not how betting works. It’s about risk and reward and brilliant though he is, that’s a tad on the short side. Particularly given that just a week ago he was playing a T20 tournament over in South Africa. Admittedly the pitches in the two countries are somewhat similar but that still can’t have been ideal preparation with such a big tournament round the corner. So it may take him a couple of games to get up to scratch here.

Four players last season took 11 or more wickets for the Strikers, other than Khan. Ben Laughlin got 16 and he might go close here for top Strikers wicket taker in the match but at 3.75 that’s a bit short, too. Then there was Billy Stanlake (11), Michael Neser (13) and Peter Siddle (11).  The first two are around the 5.0 mark, Siddle is 5.5. My preference goes for the latter. Not just because he’s half a point bigger but more because if you bet with Bet365, it will go down to who conceded the fewest runs in the event of a tie on wickets. And in this regard, going by last year’s stats, Siddle would win hands down. His economy rate was 5.94, Stanlake’s 6.47 and Neser’s a far bigger 9.11. It’s not unusual at all for one or more bowlers to be tied on two wickets in a T20 and that economy rate could make all the difference. At a chunky 5.5 it’s certainly worth finding out.

2pts Back Adelaide Strikers to beat Brisbane Heat @ 2.0 with Ladbrokes

1pt Back Peter Siddle to be Adelaide Strikers Top Bowler @ 5.5 with Bet365

 

Read more Big Bash tips and other cricket betting content from Jamie Pacheco at www.bettingmaestro.com

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