Author Archives: John Burke

Morning all,

This week I am looking at the mighty Winx, the Breeders Cup and this weekend's Charlie Hall Chase.

But I have to start on a sad note….

Racing Mourns Death of King Power Owner

The blue and white silks of King Power Racing have been seen on plenty of racecourses this season. King Power Racing was owned by the Vichai Srivaddhanaprabh, who also owned Leicester City football club. Sadly the businessmen died in a horrific helicopter crash, on Saturday, just after he had watched his team against Everton.

I was talking to a Leicester City fan on Sunday who described Mr Srivaddhanaprabh as an “unassuming man. A man who hadn't just brought unprecedented success to the football club but had also put the city of Leicester on the map.

It’s not only the football world that has been saddened by his death. It has also hit the horse racing community hard too. King Power Racing was starting to establish itself as one of the leading owners in British horse racing.

Indeed they had another two winners on Saturday, including the Andrew Balding trained Morando, who landed a Group 2 at Newbury.

It’s a personal tragedy for his family and also the families of the two crew members who lost their lives. Our thoughts should be with all those  involved in this accident.

The Mighty Winx

The mare Winx is some racehorse that’s for sure. On Saturday morning British time she made it 29 straight wins, and 22 Group 1 races when making racing history to win the Cox Plate for a 4th time.

If you were at Moonee Valle, I doubt you will ever forget the roar that went up as Winx made her move 600m from home. Once in the straight she simply breezed past Benbatl to win by a comfortable 2 lengths. In all truth she hardly came off the bridle.

After the race co-owner Peter Tighe said, “She’s not only won the race but she confirmed she is the best horse in the world and honestly, I think she's the best horse we'll ever see”.

It’s a bold statement by Tighe. The daughter of Street Cry, whose win took her career earnings to over £12 million, has yet to race outside of Australia and taken on the best that Europe has to offer.

We will never get to see her run in the UK but I suspect if we had she would have proved her doubters wrong and beaten the best in the Northern Hemisphere.

Actually, these things work both ways and there was nothing to stop our best from going on down under to run against her in the Cox Plate.

There are no rules that say a horse has to run on a different country or continent. The best horse in my lifetime Frankel never raced outside Britain.

Lets’ celebrate that an amazing horse has won 29 races on the trot. That’s an incredible achievement and should be applauded by all. Connections have looked after the horse and not cared what other people think she should do.

Fair play to them!

The Breeders Cup

There’s sure to be some great racing at this Weekend's Breeders Cup which this year is being held at Churchill Downs.

Trainer John Gosden will bid for a unique double with Enable in the Turf and Roaring Lion in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on the dirt. Given that dirt track isn’t to severe Roaring Lion must have a decent chance in the Classic if he handles the kickback and didn’t leave his season at Ascot.

Apart from the Classic it’s the turf races that interest me from a betting perspective.

Four For The Weekend

If Enable is in the same form as she was in the Arc she should win the Turf. For those looking for one at bigger odds you will do worse than have a nibble on Magical who showed a nice turn of foot to win the Fillies & Mares race on Champions Day. She was behind Enable in the Arc but is improving at the right time and can go well.

The Turf Mile looks bound for Europe. The Freddie Head trained Polydream got no luck in running in the Group 1 Prix De La Floret. Granted a decent draw the 3-year-old will be tough to beat here.

Lilly’s Candle caused a shock when winning the Prix Marcel Boussac at 28/1. The strong pace suited the juvenile who came from behind to snatch victory on the line. Maybe she was flattered at Longchamp but she goes into the race a contender who could surprise again in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The Aidan O’Brien trained Sergei Prokofiev came from behind to win the 5f Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket A strongly run 5f suits the son of Scat Daddy who looks a live contender in the Breeders Cup Juvenile sprint. Behind him in 5th at Newmarket was the Robert Cowell trained Pocket Dynamo who looked a shade unlucky in the run that. With a clearer run he would have finished a lot closer. I think he could be the surprise package in the race granted a decent draw.

Charlie Hall Chase

On Saturday it’s Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby. Now for plenty of Northern punters the Charlie Hall is the start of the winter jumps season.

The Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase doesn’t normally attract a big field of staying chasers. Indeed, the average field size in the past decade is around seven runners.

Last year’s winner was Bristol De Mai, who went on to win Betfair Chase on his next start.

When it comes to big race trends I am very much in the less is more camp. Here are three that are worth noting:

Horses Age: 6yo to 9yo
Official Rating: 151 to 165
Wins in November: 1+

9 winners from 26 runners + 35.88 13 placed – 90% of the winners from 38% of the total runners.

Sadly time has beaten me so I don't have a notebook horse for you this week. Normal service will resume next Monday.

Monday Selection:

Redcar

Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor might have missed out in the Cox Plate with Benbatl but he might have better fortune at a more modest level today.

Volcanic Sky gets the first-time hood today and the trainer has an excellent record with his runners racing in the first-time hood. Since 2014 he’s 20 winners from 54 runners 37% +34.42 A/E 1.51 30 placed 56% with such runners.

The 3-year-old has yet to race on soft but if the colt handles it can give us a good run for our money.

2:15 – Volcanic Sky – 5/1 or bigger

Until next week

Morning all,

Sadly, no ante-post winner to report this week. However, if you followed my each-way suggestions for Saturday’s Cesarewitch; Cleonte and Theglasgowwarrior, you made a tidy profit on the race. As they finished 3rd and 5th respectively.

Plenty to cover this week. As I take a look back at Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket on Friday. Before taking an early peek at Champions Day. You can find all this and my Monday tip inside..

Joseph's Surprise In Fillies Mile!

Lets begin with a few reflections on Future Champions Weekend.

Iridessa, caused a bit of a shock when landing the Fillies Mile on Friday at 16/1. The Joseph O’Brien trained filly beat Hermosa trained by father Aidan. There was a very strong headwind and the winner got plenty of cover during the race. The runner-up was ridden more prominently and in the circumstances did well.

Pretty Pollyanna ran much better than she had done in the Cheveley Park, in finishing 3rd. The filly had been ante-post favourite for next year’s 1000 Guineas prior to her Cheveley Park run. She has now been pushed out to as big as 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral which looks a bit of an overreaction, given she wasn’t totally disgraced.

Norway Could Be Classic Contender?

The Zetland Stakes was won by Norway. Not the country. The horse.

Trainer Aiden O’Brien had won last years race with Kew Gardens and he has another future middle distance horse on his hands. Norway showed he already has excellent reserves of stamina to win this 1m 2f contest. Given his full brother Ruler Of The World, won the Derby you couldn’t rule him out for the Epsom Classic but he already has the look of a St Leger horse.

Persian Takes Centre Stage!

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that you grab the 25/1 available about the Andre Fabre trained Persian King for next years 2000 Guineas. He’s now as low as 10/1 for next year’s first colt’s classic after his win the Group 3 Autumn Stakes.

The son of Kingman looked really well in the paddock before the race and took the preliminaries in his stride. He has plenty in his favour and I really like him. He’s a good stamp of a horse and looks open to even more improvement as a 3-year-old. I was impressed with his attitude in the finish. His jockey had a hard time pulling him up after the race which suggests there was plenty in the tank.

Hot Winner Of Dewhurst!

I don’t have much to say about Too Darn Hot’s performance in winning the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Apart from the fact he put in a fantastic one. He’s clearly the best 2-year-old around and looks an exceptional horse.

The further they went the better he looked. You can see why he’s now a best priced 7/4 for the 2000 Guineas. The juvenile colts look a very strong bunch this year, so let's hope they all train on. As it looks like we could have a vintage crop.

Notebook Horse:

This weeks tracker horse is the first of the 2018-19 jumps season.

Carole’s Destrier, trained by Neil Mulholland, has dropped down the weights since finishing a ½ length second to Native River in the 2016 Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury off 12lb higher.

The 10-year-old ran well for a long way in the Veterans Chase at Chepstow yesterday.This was his first start for 169 days and he was outpaced three out. Not surprisingly he tired but at least his jockey didn’t subject him to hard race after the last.

The 2m 7f would also have been a bare minimum for the horse who has won over 3m 5f.  There are races in him if he can build on this performance, which is by no mean certain.

For reference. The gelding is 5 wins from 12 runs +16.63 7 places when going right handed, 1 win from 15 runs 5 places going the other way. He’s also 6 wins from 13 runs +17.25 when racing 21 to 45 days since his last run.

He could well head for the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton next month.

Champions Day

It’s Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday. The end of season finale is the richest days racing held in Britain with £4.35 million on offer.

The highlight could be the Champion Stakes if Cracksmen, possibly in first time headgear, takes on stablemate Roaring Lion and Crystal Ocean.

My only bet so far is Hydrangea to win the Fillies & Mares race for the second year running. Hydrangea hasn’t run since finishing last of seven in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. She showed improved form when winning last years renewal and it looks like Aiden O’Brien has trained her for the race.

Granted her three runs this season haven’t reached that level but she is almost three times the price of Bateel, the second favourite behind Lah Ti Dar. Hydrangea beat Bateel by a fairly comfortable 2 lengths in the race last year. The 16/1 available with Paddy Power looks great each way value to me.

Balmoral Handicap 

The final race on Champions Day is the Balmoral Handicap over the Hunt Cup mile.

I like Flaming Spear (11/1). He will be suited by any ease in the ground and mile now looks his trip. Hopefully the trainer's horses will have returned to form by the weekend.

Fire Brigade (16/1) has run well on Ascot’s straight track in the past and he should get the easy surface that suits. He ran really well at Ayr on his last start and this race could well have been a target for trainer Michael Bell.

The Ralph Beckett trained Mitchum Swagger (20/1) likes some ease in the ground. He ran disappointingly at Haydock last month but that was his first start since finishing 3rd in the Lincoln back in March. Just behind Addeybb and Lord Glitters that day.

The 6-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound but if produces his best he looks on a competitive mark. He ran well over C&D when 3rd in the Hunt Cup back in 2016, for his previous trainer and now races off a 4lb lower mark.

Monday Selection:

Mr Reckless provided the column with a much-needed winner last Monday at 4/1.

Gowran Park

Today’s selection is Art Of Security who goes in the 5:30 at Gowran Park. The winning hurdler remains lightly raced on the flat. This is his first start since finishing 6th of 20 to Low Sun over hurdles at the Galway Festival. The rain softened ground is in his favour and if he’s ready to roll after his short break looks on a competitive mark here.

5:30 – Art Of Security – 11/1 or bigger

Until next week