Author Archives: John Burke

Morning all,

It’s been steady profits over the last couple weekend’s for Victor Value subscribers. Saturday was one of those days when everything goes right with Waldpfad (33/1), Casablanca Mix (11/1) and Indeed (6/1) doing the business to give us one of the best Saturday’s of this flat season.

Saturday’s racing looked low key compared to ‘Super Saturday’ but far from it and there are plenty of good performances to look back on.

You'll find my thoughts on Saturday's racing and Monday's tip inside.

Lazy Fox in Newbury Win

Fox Chairman, had looked unlucky on his last two starts behind Circus Maximus and Sangarius. He finally got into the winner’s enclosure when victorious in the Listed race that opened Newbury’s Saturday card.

Dropped in, off a fairly steady pace, he was one of the first to come under pressure.  Responding well, he took up the running two out and held on. Despite not doing much when hitting the front.

Fox Chairman doesn't make his jockey's life easy but the odds-on favourite has plenty of ability as he showed here.

The step up to 1m 4f suited the son of Kingman and he may stay further. Given how lazily he races he would surely benefit for the addition of some headgear.

Charlton Enhances Excellent Course Record

It’s not been the best of seasons for Roger Charlton. But Withold’s win in the Marsh Cup showed what a good trainer he remains. The classy stayer hadn’t been since finishing 8th of 15 in the Geelong Cup in Australia last autumn.

Withold has had a wind-operation, since returning from his aborted trip down under and the procedure has certainly worked.  Sent into the lead, coming to three out there were plenty of challengers but he brushed them off and ran out a good winner.

To win this, off a mark 107, means he’s a pattern class stayer.  The 6-year-old has got an entry in the Goodwood Cup, that race will probably come to quick, and also holds an Ebor entry.  If he comes out of the race sound he will surely be able to hold his own in better class races.

The trainer had a handicap double at the track on Saturday which means he's now 10 winners from 28 bets 36% +33.7 16 placed 57% with such runners in the past 5-years.

Don’t Underestimate the German’s

German horses have had plenty of big race success in Britain in the past, so it was surprising to see Waldpfad sent off at 33/1 for the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes.

As I told my subscribers on Friday evening:

“He comes into the race after winning a German Group 3, 17-days ago. The drop back to 6f suited the 5-year-old and there could be more to come from him over sprint trips”.

This was only the 5-year-old's second start over 6f. A big strong sprinting type, he was always travelling well and once he hit the front he was strong all the way to the line.  There was no fluke to this success either.

The Tin Man was the big disappointment.  The 7-year-old was dropping in class and getting 3lb from the eventual winner but never looked like he would win. 

Millman’s Dare to Dream

Newbury's Super Sprint, is a race is designed to give cheaply bought juveniles the chance of winning a big pot.

Betty’s Hope, trained by Rod Millman, cost just £3,000 as a yearling and she came with a late thrust in the hands of Silvestre De Sousa to win on the nod.  Not unbacked, she takes home £122,925 for winning the race.

The favourite Ventura Rebel could only finish 4th and looked like he needs 6f.

Frankie’s Not For Catching In Irish Oaks

Now the place to be in this years Irish Classics, has been to be out in front.  Frankie Dettori soon had recent Royal Ascot winner Star Catcher out in the lead and his opponents allowed him to dictate the pace.  The filly held off the late run of Fleeting to win by a ½ length, with 5/2 favourite Pink Dogwood back in third.

It was a riding masterclass by Frankie Dettori to win, but the other jockey’s including Ryan Moore need to take long hard look in the mirror and ask themselves how they could allow Frankie to dominate the race in the way he did.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Ryan and the Coolmore jockeys, as they ride exactly to instructions and improvisation doesn't seem to be encouraged.

Henderson Wins The Plate

Finally, a quick mention for Nicky Henderson who landed his first Summer Plate at Market Rasen with Casablanca Mix.

The filly has plenty of ability but has been unlucky in a few of her previous races over fences. Coming into the race on the back of a confidence boasting Aintree win.  Nico De Boinville always had the 7-year-old in a handy position behind the leaders. Taking it up three out, she never looked like she would be caught as she stayed on well to give her trainer a first win in this valuable summer jumps prize.

Crystal Can Sparkle In King George

Next Saturday we have the mouth-watering prospect of Enable taking on the likes of Crystal Ocean, Defoe, Waldgeist, Anthony Van Dyck & Sovereign at Ascot. 

Let’s hope all the big names stand their ground as it could be one of the races of the season.

Crystal Ocean, gained his breakthrough Group 1 win at Royal Ascot last time, putting in a career best on RPR’s in the process. An improved horse, if he’s ever to beat the mare it will be on Saturday.

Monday Selection:

Windsor

5:45 – Spice Of Life, ran well enough when 4th on her handicap over C&D, three weeks ago. She gets the first-time blinkers today, which will hopefully eke out some improvement and trainer Ralph Beckett's record with handicappers in the first-time headgear is 12 winners from 55 bets 22% +30.49 A/E 1.42 22 placed 40% since the start of 2015, including 5 winners from 18 runners 28% +27 with fillies.  Granted, the trainers runners are a bit in and out at present but she will do for me.

Spice Of Life

Until next week.

The holiday’s over, and I am back in the Monday hot seat.  It’s great to be back and I wouldn’t wanted to have missed what I witnessed on Saturday.

You can read my thoughts on Saturday’s action and find out why I fancy a well handicapped horse running at Ripon.

Ready, willing and Enable

July is the month of the season when the classic generation meet the older horses at Group 1 level. It all began on Saturday with the Coral-Eclipse. Sadly the 3-year-old presence in the Eclipse was poor with just Telecaster racing for the classic generation.

Dual Arc heroine Enable made her long-awaited seasonal return in the Coral Eclipse on Saturday. Enable looked magnificent in the parade ring. All good horses have a presence in the paddock, they have poise and balance, and she has both of those in spades.

Hunting Horn as expected set a good gallop for his stablemate Magical, with Enable chasing him in second. Taking it up two furlongs from home Enable only had to be shaken up to hold off Magical and the staying on Regal Reality. Her final margin of victory over the runner-up was just ¾ length but that doesn’t reflect just how dominant she was at the finish.

Telecaster was a bit keen on the outside without cover but even so never looked like he would threaten. He needs to be dropped back in class to get a bit of a confidence booster.

The goddess of racing

Owner Prince Khalid Abdulla has arguably had the best colt in the past 30-years, in Frankel, and now he’s got the best filly that I have seen racing. Yep, she's that good and what a straightforward ride she is? That's why she’s such a great horse.

It’s important for any sport to have its Champions and flat racing has it with Enable. After the race the crowd stampeded to see her come back into the winner’s enclosure. Granted there was an element of the “Frankie Factor” to some of the crowd’s reaction, but in truth most had come to worship their goddess.

It’s been a low-key flat season so far but hopefully Enable has now lit the fuse to this summer of racing.

John McCririck RIP

John McCririck, sadly lost his long fight against lung cancer on Friday.

Opinionated, dinosaur and misogynist are some of the words that were used to describe McCririck during his life and they were probably accurate descriptions of the man.

No one can deny that Big Mac, as he was popularly known, was a larger than life character, certainly in public, although in private he a was more insecure and shyer person.

For over 30-years he was one of the few figures in racing recognised by people outside the racing bubble. When the non-racing mainstream media wanted a view on a big racing or betting story, he was the man they went to.

The deerstalker wearing, cigar smoking persona was the face of Channel 4 racing’s coverage for three decades. However, by the end of his time with the broadcaster his eccentric act had run its course.

Love him or loath him, there is no doubt he was on the side of the punter and of course it’s worth remembering he was an award-winning investigative journalist when he worked on the Sporting Life.

No one could ever describe McCririck as politically correct but ironically when it came to the use of the whip his views differed from most in the sport. He had long been an advocate of banning jockeys from hitting horses with the whip.

For many years he was also a patron of the Greatwood horse charity, alongside wife Jenny aka ‘The Booby’.

There won’t be another John McCririck in our lifetime that’s for sure.

RIP Big Mac.

Newmarket July Cup Thoughts

We have three days of racing on Newmarket’s July course to look forward to this week. The feature race of the meeting is the Group 1 July Cup on Saturday. Looking at some of the key trends:

Nine of the ten winners were 3yo or 4yo 9 winners from 74 runners. Whilst those aged 5yo+ are 1 winner from 60 runners.

Eight of the last ten winners ran at Royal Ascot on their last start.  Of those 8 winners 7 of them were aged 3 or 4 7 winners from 52 runners. Whilst those aged 5yo+ are 1 winner from 46 runners. The sole older Royal Ascot winner was Slade Power in 2014.

Digging deeper into the stats. Those horses who were dropping back from a mile at Royal Ascot are 2 winners from 7 runners 3 placed. The two winners were US Navy Flag in 2018 and Dream Ahead in 2011. There is one possible runner who fits that profile in Pretty Pollyanna.

Ante post favourite Advertise, deserves his place at the head of the market and looks value at around 4/1.

Fairyland was doing her best work at the finish when 5th of 12 in the King Stand Stakes and will be suited by the step up to 6f.

Pretty Pollyanna was well down the field in the Coronation Stakes but could be suited by the drop back to sprinting and she did win over C&D here 12 months ago.

Both Fairyland 16/1 and Pretty Pollyanna 33/1 look at generous odds.

Hopefully this year’s winner will be one of the above three horses.

Monday Selection:

Today’s tip runs at Ripon this evening.

Ripon

8:10 – Granted Benadalid ran poorly in the Cumberland Plate 12-days ago but there’s no denying that the 4-year-old has dropped to a tempting handicap mark, 3lb lower than his last win.

Hopes of a bounce back to form rest on a return to Ripon, a track where his form figures are 313 and the fact that all three of his career wins have come when racing between 11 and 25 days since his last run.

It looks like he will be one the outsiders of the field but if all eight stand their ground he can hopefully run into the places at the very least.

Benadalid – each way

Until next week.