Good morning all,
I have done the comments for the Life at Southwell today and as such, I'll be trying a Colossus or two around 10am this morning. My thoughts on the card are on today's main article.
2.00 – 5f Handicap
Whatever bias there was a few weeks ago seems to have ebbed away, and it simply seems you need to be on the speed rather than drawn high/low. And there’s plenty of speed about here, so in a tricky opener I’ll take Gupta, who looked happier after a wind op last time and has form on the surface, Eesha Says, who won at a huge price here back in September but two good runs here since then show that to be no fluke, and just in case they do fall in a hole, Amazing Amaya (who has form that ties her closely to Eesha Says) is worth including.
2.30 – 1m Maiden
Market overnight might tell us a bit. Lisbet has been disappointing so far and there are no guarantees that she’s simply any good, although to be fair she has looked clueless on her first two starts. I’d rather go with the proven ability of Iron Heart and, to a lesser extent, Staglaire. The former has a run on the surface under his belt and the latter ran in what might be a decent contest at Chelmsford, showing a lot more. If she acts on the track she might be the one to beat. Hopefully these two can carry us through the leg.
3.05 – 1m Handicap
This has the potential to get messy, with no confirmed no front runner. If there is a candidate for that it might be Elhafei, but he seemed happier taking a lead last time, so there are no guarantees of that. A slow pace might count against Straitouttacompton too, especially over a trip that’s a bare minimum for him really, and I’d rather go with Fox Shinji and Thunderroad, both of whom bring some decent recent form to the table.
3.40 – 6f Handicap
The world and his dog saw the ride Six Strings got last time and it was no surprise the stewards had a word, as he really ought to have won. He’s got every chance today, but Sandridge Lad, who loves it here, looks sure to get an easy lead (assuming they’ll drop Six Strings in behind again) and might be hard to pass. Global Melody’s tendency to hang to the stands rail in the straight is a worry, and Al Suil Eile makes a bit more appeal dropping back to 6f.
4.10 – 2m2f Handicap
There will be two furlongs between first and last as the winner passes the post here.
Only really two to concentrate on and both have their plus points. Tynecastle Park has won or placed in 10 of his 11 starts at the track and ought to stay, and Padleyourowncanoe still looks very well handicapped after his Lingfield win, where the further he went, the happier he looked. He has a win to his name here too, if you are willing to go back far enough. Pumblechook can be given half a chance if the big two fluff their lines, but the rest are hard to make a case for.
4.40 – 7f Amateur Riders Handicap
The obvious thing to do would be to go with The Eagles Nest, 2-2 here and bang in form after his latest win here on Tuesday, but it might not be that simple after a quick turnaround (and a double penalty) and it might be worth trying to take him on. (Update – he's out, which rather spoils things.)
Letmestopyouthere gets on well with Brodie Hampson, which is a big plus in a race such as this, and the step back up to 7f can only be a positive as well. I’d have them top of my list and it might not be the biggest surprise if they went off favourite here.
Fly True is going to be popular with Simon Walker on but that’s not the massive positive it used to be – indeed if my figures are right, he only rode two winners last calendar year (although plenty were placed). And by the trainer's admission, she’s not the most consistent and could blow out. Fieldsman drops in grade, acts on the track and has won for Sarah Bowen before, so has plenty going for him, and at a huge price I gave Baile Ghilbert a look – he was 6l behind The Eagles Nest here on Wednesday and that was a much better effort on anything he’d done previously, but that came in a visor and he’s back in cheekpieces here (which he would have been declared in Wednesday morning before he ran later! Work that out…).
Today's selection – Letmestopyouthere 4.40
Good luck with all your bets today,