Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece you can ready my thoughts on the Betfred 1000 Guineas.
It’s 1000 Guineas Day—the first fillies’ Classic of the season. Twelve months ago, this day brought two winners: Elmalka (28/1) in the big one, and Bague d'Or (6/1). This year, it’s a different story. I’ve had a shocker at Punchestown—a meeting that normally delivers profit.
A frustrating run finally came to an end as I landed on a 12/1 winner at Punchestown on Saturday and with Crimson Advocate (100/30) going in at Goodwood it was profitable day for subscribers. Let’s hope the revival continues Sunday and into next week for Chester’s May Meeting. If you want my Chester May Meeting selections, you can get them here.
We’ve got a seven-race card at Newmarket this afternoon. Truth be told, aside from the Classic, it’s not the strongest of cards.
ITV Racing are once again covering four races from Newmarket, plus one each from Hamilton and Salisbury.
Newmarket – 1000 Guineas Day Preview
The card kicks off with the Listed Betfred Pretty Polly Stakes (1:45), a race for 3-year-old fillies over 1m2f. The Gosden's have won six of the last ten renewals—including the past two—and they’re double-handed again with Life Is Beautiful and Sand Gazelle. Given the stable’s record, both must be respected.
That said, the one I’m most interested in is Falakeyah. The daughter of New Bay overcame inexperience to win on debut at Wolverhampton (1m½f) in November, pulling clear of her rivals despite a slow start. She looked like a filly with real potential, and trainer Owen Burrows places his horses well. Her half-sister Rowayah won twice at three, but this filly looks like she could go further. She’s bred to stay, and this 1m2f trip should suit her down to the ground.
In the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes (2:20), Running Lion—runner-up last year—tries again, but she’s probably better with cut in the ground. That might leave her vulnerable to Elmalka, last year’s 1,000 Guineas winner. This 1m1f trip could be ideal, and if she’s ready first time out, she’s the one to beat.
Tough Stayers' Handicap Could Go to a Bounce-Back Performer
Liam Swagger heads the market. He’s been running well over hurdles—finishing third in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham—and shaped nicely back on the Flat when third at Chelmsford over this trip last time. He’s clearly on a fair mark, but 3/1 looks short in a deeper race.
Kihavah won the Queen’s Cup Handicap at Musselburgh two weeks ago. He’s solid again, though a 4lb penalty might just be enough to stop him following up.
Artistic Star ran well in the Derby in 2023 and is well enough handicapped on his best form if he retains that level of ability. The issue is soundness—he’s only had three runs since August 2023.
Align The Stars made a good return at Nottingham but was disappointing when well backed (100/30 fav) in the Queen’s Cup. He’s better than that, though he’ll need to bounce back big time. Stablemate Knightswood was back to winning form at Ripon (1m 4f) 8 days ago. Good ground suits and he probably stays 1m 6f so should be in the mix.
Wild Waves also disappointed in the Queen’s Cup, when he might not have handled the track. He’s feasibly treated on last year’s form and could go well. His stable had a double here on Friday and a handicap winner on Saturday.
Oneforthegutter doesn’t win very often but ran well in valuable handicaps last season—finishing runner-up over this distance on the other course, third in the Ebor Handicap, and filling the same spot in the November Handicap last time out. Fitness must be taken on trust, but he should give a good account if he is ready to roll.
Betfred 1000 Guineas – 1m (3:35)
For much of the winter, this has looked a duel between Lake Victoria and Desert Flower.
Lake Victoria extended her unbeaten run to five in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m). Before that, she’d landed the Moyglare (7f) and the Cheveley Park (6f). She’s had a tricky prep—there were doubts about her participation earlier in the week—but if she’s ready, can win.
Desert Flower also unbeaten as juvenile, having taken the May Hill Stakes before an impressive win in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over today’s C&D. She shapes as if she’ll stay further and might have more physical scope than Lake Victoria going into her 3-year-old season.
Duty Free was a ready winner of the Fred Darling at Newbury. She’s clearly improved from two to three, but I’m not convinced a mile will see her in the same light based on pedigree.
Red Letter progressed with each run last season. She didn’t get a clear passage 1f out when 4th to Lake Victoria in the Moyglare. A daughter of Frankel, she should relish a mile and remains open to improvement. She can run well albeit trainer Ger Lyons doesn’t have the best of records with his runners in UK Group 1’s.
One that’s been put up by Hugh Taylor is Elwateen. A Dubawi filly who made a successful—if green—debut at Kempton in August, when producing a smart turn of foot. She’s clearly held in high regard, and although she’s thrown in the deep end on just her second start, she should be a lot better than her current rating. Yard had the fourth in yesterday’s 2000 Guineas.
Betfred 1000 Guineas Selection:
3:35 – Red Letter – 6/1.
I’ll be back on Monday with my look back at the two Newmarket Classics.
Good luck with your Sunday bets.
John