Betting Against the Crowd

Today we have part two of Phil Eadie's words of wisdom regarding his preference for betting against the crowd.

If you missed yesterdays part one then you can read that here.

To find out more about Phil and to read his thoughts on today's Aintree meeting head over to his blog here, while you're there I recommend you check out his Partners in Profit system.

Here's Phil…

So yesterday we talked about how backing favourites is no way to make money and how you don't have to spend hours studying form to find winning selections.

We also talked about my losing spells and how it wasnt until later on day 3 that I finally got some winners and made a great profit from the festival.

Following on from Cheltenham I again employed the same approach using belligerence and contrary views in equal measure and on Easter Monday I set about tackling the fifty races held in the UK. I came up with 27 bets, 22 of which lost.

Not to be too harsh on myself 9 of them came a close second and 5 were third.

The five winners produced over 40 points profit on the day.

No amounts of hours of painstaking form study, ratings or analysis of weights were used in determining any of the selections.

They were all however chosen using a perfectly logical and structured set of rules that were stuck to rigidly.

The message here is to take a different view to the majority of people, don’t be afraid to be wrong more often than your right.

The losing runs of which there can be many should not be feared but welcomed as essential, because it is just those losing runs that create the value in the winners.

Of course to profit from such an approach you must first develop a method of finding enough winners at such prices that will return an overall profit.

Finding winners like these is about finding a niche to exploit.

You may choose to follow a particular trainer or jockey and develop an understanding of where and what type of races they do better in.

You may follow particular horses and determine what conditions they excel in.

But whatever you do, do not develop your niche around the best or most popular names in the game as these are bound to come in for strong support and will rarely offer value, even when they do win.

The best form guide to finding such a niche will be your own eyes and ears.

Winners I know are very nice, but its profit that counts.

Try to look beyond the hype don’t be enticed by pundits sound bites of high strike rates or certainties.

Anything can happen in a horse race and it usually does.

Even with this contrary approach it should be remembered there are exceptions and you don’t need to play in every race.

I am happy to confess I have an obsession with opposing favourites, although I can honestly say I never risked a penny opposing the likes of Frankel, Sprinter Sacre or Big Bucks.

Nor was I ever enticed into backing them, preferring just to keep my powder dry and just thoroughly enjoy the spectacle on offer.

There is a more serious message within the belligerence above. You should always have a structure to your betting. Decide on your method of selection and stick with it.

Use a staking plan that suits your style or more importantly your pocket.

Emotion should play no part in your betting activities. What you bet on is less important than how you bet.

Be a better bettor and not a gambler. It’s far more satisfying to develop your own methods than to blindly follow the advice of others.

Phil Eadie

www.betorbet.co.uk

Today's Selection

Aintree 3.40 Gullible Gordon – Each way bet – 12/1 Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Boylesport

One Response to Betting Against the Crowd

  1. […] Part two of the article is here. […]

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