by Dave French

December 14, 2011

Jon BurgessSuccessful Punters Understand The Dynamics of The Betting Market

Most punters who bet on horses have a basic understanding of Jockey and favourite statistics.

Unfortunately these are pretty useless from a profit point of view. And in order to make any meaningful gains you definitely need to do some digging.

There are literally hundreds of strands of data and statistics which make up the betting puzzle.

Unfortunately it will always be difficult to calculate the precise chances of each runner.

Nevertheless it is possible to gauge the over all probability based on essential horse racing factors.

The odds are directly related to likelihood of success. Therefore from a pure betting point of view it's wise to focus on three primary evolving racing statistics:

  • Horse odds
  • Trainer statistics
  • Favourite statistics

Another important factor that you should also consider in your calculations is how Racing Tipsters can influence the way the markets bet.

Horse odds

Odds are compiled by experienced form analysts, known as “odds compliers” these professionals are employed by private handicappers such as Racing Post or the Bookies.

The betting forecasts compiled by these guys reflect the probability and implied chance of each horse.

Each horses odd`s change throughout the betting day and are affected by various factors.

Key facts to be aware of:

  • The betting market is totally money driven the odds shorten and lengthen based around this factor.
  • The Racing Post betting forecasts are published in several newspapers
  • The forecast favourite in the Racing Post is very often not the betting market favourite on the betting exchanges, or at SP time
  • Forecast favourites in the Racing Post who still occupy the favourites slot at SP time statistically win more than those that don`t.
  • Betting forecast favourites can be withdrawn leaving another horse to become favourite by default.
  • Other horses can be supported more than the favourite thus causing its odds to drift. This is two fold and the favourite may remain top of the market, but its opening price may have drifted out. Conversely, 1st favourites can become 2nd favourites if other horses are supported more. This situation is often present in handicap races which are generally more competitive than non handicaps.
  • In non handicaps strong favourites can be supported almost exclusively making their odds steam (shorten)

Favourites statics

Fall into two categories generic and specific.

Generic statistics relate to ALL winning favourites percentages and specific relate to subcategories of wining favourites, such as favourites at each course split into various categories.

These statistics need to be monitored as they change regularly, therefore requiring subjective assessment.

Trainer strike rates

Fall into two categories generic and specific. Both reflect the documented win percentages of each trainer’s horses. These statistics need to be monitored as they change regularly, therefore require subjective assessment.
Key facts to be aware of:
• In Flat racing a trainers horses statistics are divided by age, e.g. 2 year olds, 3 year olds and 4 year old+) and are either classed as handicap or non handicap races.
• In Jumps racing a trainers horse statistics are divided by race type, e.g. Hurdle, Chase, National Hunt Flat; Hurdles and chases are either classed as handicap or non handicap races.
• You can assess trainer statistics by clicking on ANY trainers name on the Racing Post.com website. Either through individual race cards or from the statistics pages.
Racing tips
Are based on documented horse form, trainer form etc. It’s a Tipsters job to pay attention to the horses competing each racing day and calculate how likely they are to win in any given race, according to their form.

Key facts to be aware of:

  • The majority of the betting public very often place bets based around free horse racing tips from various sources such as, mass circulation newspapers and dedicated form guides like the – Racing Post, Sportinglife and Time-form. To make things easier you can use the Racing Post SELECTIONS tool which collectively combines the tips from the Racing Post and all the UK National papers. Mass tipping really does affect the odds, and many horses steam or drift based around this factor alone.
  • Free horse racing tips aren't going to cost you anything, however this doesn’t mean you should blindly follow them. In fact it’s much better to form your own opinion based around the advice presented in your chosen daily form guide.

Summary

If you wish to become a successful punter it's important that you fully understand the basic dynamics of how the betting market evolves.

Once you are conversant your aim should be to quantify the primary factors giving each one a different weighting depending on its importance.

The final stage of your assessment should be to weigh up each race and identify the strongest contenders.

Evaluating which horses should be supported and which should be opposed, including the favourite.

In reality you should only look at QUANTIFIABLE factors.

Anything that can`t be verified reasonably accurately is open to interpretation and will only act as a distraction, therefore should be ignored.

About the author – Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School and Betfair`s Education site. His betting systems have been PROVEN by many online review sites, not only to be genuine, but actually produce long-term profits. He offers Exclusive tips & methods to help make you’re betting easier & more profitable on his blog at: false-favourites.co.uk/blog  
Todays Tip

Newbury 12.20 Schism (we will put this up for a win bet, but it is almost a free bet if you go eachway!)

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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