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Monday Tip & St Leger Ante Post Selection!

Morning all,

In this week’s column, I highlight the claims of a colt for the St Leger and a value bet in the Irish Oaks. As well as looking back at last weeks horse racing action.

We heard some disappointing news yesterday. It was announced that Derby winner Masar has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Connections have said he will stay in training as 4-year-old which is good news.

Newmarket July Festival Highlights

Well that’s another flat summer festival over. The Newmarket July Festival isn’t traditionally the best of the summer festivals. Well compared to Royal Ascot and the Ebor Festival it's not. But there were still some good performances over the three days.

Alpha Centauri’s easy win in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes was my personal favourite. This was the filly’s third Group 1 on the trot, following on from her wins in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes. She’s a genuine a superstar filly who just floats across a sound surface and is joy to watch.

The runner-up Altyn Orda couldn’t match the winners speed and was beaten 4 ½ lengths by the winner. Her trainer Roger Varian sees his filly as a possible for the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket in the Autumn. The daughter of Kyllachy goes well on the Rowley Mile and she should be noted for that race.

The meeting opened with the Bahrain Trophy which was won by the Tim Easterby trained Wells Farhh Go. The going was officially described as good to firm but the track had been heavily watered and the race times suggested it was perfect good ground.

The 3-year-old relished the 1m 5f and made sure the race was run at true gallop by making all. The new front running tactics clearly worked a treat as he galloped his rivals into the ground.

A possible tilt at the Great Voltigeur at York could be on the horse’s agenda next. Despite the drop back to 1m 4f, his front running style is suited to York and he did win twice there as a juvenile.

The trainer has made no secret that the St Leger is the target for which Wells Farhh Go. He's now a best priced 10/1 for the final Classic of the season.

Given he will probably be an even better horse with more ease in the ground. Those 10/1 odds look attractive to me.

U S Navy Flag had been expected to be suited by the drop back to sprinting. So it proved. As the colt made all to give his trainer Aidan O’Brien a fourth win in the July Cup. It was also another success for the use of a crossover and tongue tie. Something that the trainer has used to good effect on plenty of his other horses in the past. I find it rather surprising that more trainers don’t use this combination given how effective it seems to be.

The time of the race shows U S Navy Flag got an easy lead out in front. The runner up Brando may well have won had he been drawn on the right side. He’s a big stamp of a horse who always gives his all but the effort just took its toll in the final 100yds.

Blue Point was sent off the well backed 5/2 favourite after his win King Stand Stakes. He was ultimately well beaten into 7th.  For me he doesn’t see out 6f strongly enough in Group 1 company.  He’s also yet to prove he can put up two back to back Group 1 performances.

Newmarket July Festival Eyecatcher

This week’s tracker horse is the Kevin Ryan trained Stormbringer. The 3-year-old just lost out by a nose to Foxtrot Lady in a driving finish. The pair pulled 3 lengths clear of the 3rd so the form looks solid. There was plenty to like about the Ryan horse’s attitude in the finish.

The colt had run with credit in handicaps over 7f but was well suited by the drop to 6f. He will go up in the weights for this performance but he looks the sort to go well in races like the Ayr Gold Cup. There are more races in him whatever his targets later in the season.

More Group 1 Success To Come For Aidan O’Brien

Ryan Moore followed his win on U S Navy Flag by flying over to France to win the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris on Kew Gardens. Aidan O’Brien had mentioned early in the year that Kew Gardens would get better as the season goes. It looks like he will be proved right.

At the start of the season I had Kew Gardens down as likely St Leger contender. If connections go down that route, it’s a race he must have a great chance of winning. Before the Leger the colt could go for the King George VI, for which he’s a best priced 6/1.

There could be more success for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore this weekend in the Irish Oaks with Magic Wand. It's likely that the Curragh won’t see much rain and if the ground remains on the quick side the filly will take all the beating. The 11/4 available with Coral looks a good bet to me, as she won’t be that price on Saturday.

Monday Selection

Ayr

Sultan Baybars, hasn’t won since his juvenile racecourse debut for previous trainer Roger Varian and David O’Meara will be disappointed that he hasn’t managed to get a win out of the 4-year-old this season. Sultan Baybars is now 11lb lower than he started the season and can now race in a Class 5 handicap for the first time.

He clearly comes with risks attached but there’s no doubt he’s a well handicapped on his best handicap form of 12 months ago and hopefully the drop down in Class can make all the difference today.

4:40 – Sultan Baybars

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable weeks punting.

You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here

Windsor Selection + John Smith’s Cup Fancy

Morning all,

Lions All the Way On Saturday!

What a Summer this is turning out to be? England have made the semi-finals of the World Cup and we have gone more than four days without any rain. All in all, the Summer of 2018 could well turn out to be a memorable one!

I did expect England to reach the quarter- finals but other results have meant, that the chance of England getting to the final is now a realistic one. England’s performances over the last weeks has been nothing short of outstanding.

In my World Cup preview. I did say that England would hammer a pedestrian Panama and “have a look of Germany at the 2010 World Cup. This tournament will be a great learning curve and something to build on, with 2022 in mind”. Well at least I got two things right in what turned out be an otherwise lamentable effort on the tipping front.

In the case of England, it could of course all end on Wednesday evening if we lose to Croatia but the dry weather looks set to be with us for another week. This is good news for this weeks Moet & Chandon July Festival at Newmarket which looks set to go ahead on quick ground.

The Lion Roars In The Eclipse

Anyway, moving away from the football and weather and back to the racing. I was at a wedding on Saturday so didn’t get a chance to see the Coral Eclipse until watching a replay. The race had lost some of it’s appeal with the late defection of Derby winner Masar on Friday due to a training setback but once again the race provided the racegoers who turned up with a thriller of a finish.

Roaring Lion who was third in the Derby was expected to be better suited by a return to 1m 2f and so it proved. Given a canny ride by Osin Murphy, albeit he was a little too liberal with the whip for my liking, the John Gosden trained colt just got the better of Saxon Warrior in the final 100yds. The drop back in trip also suited the runner-up, who looked like he had got first run on the eventual winner but was worn down in the end to be beaten by a neck.

Roaring Lion had to survive a steward’s enquiry as he did slightly nudge the runner-up when hanging slightly to his right close to the finish. However, the stewards made the right decision as the best horse won the race.

The winner will now head to the Juddmonte International at York and he could face Saxon Warrior again although the latter is more likely to end his season back over a mile where there are good races to be won.

My own foray into the ante post betting for the race failed as Happily, the stablemate of the runner-up could only finish 5th. Not a bad run in truth from the 3-year-old who found the ground just a bit to lively. There will be other opportunities to get the money back as there are races in her when the going eases in the autumn.

I can’t finish this weeks look back at the week of racing without mentioning the death of former top trainer John Dunlop. For those of us of a certain age John Dunlop will always be remembered as one of the great modern horse racing trainers and a real gentleman to boot.

RIP John Dunlop!

Stats For The Week:

Ralph Beckett – Newmarket July Course

As I mentioned earlier, it’s Newmarket’s three-day July Festival this week and here’s a trainer stat that might be worth keeping onside.

Trainer Ralph Beckett has a good record with his handicap runners on the Newmarket July course and in particular those going off at 8/1 and under in the betting. Since 2014 he’s had 14 winners from 38 runners 37% +26.62 A/E 1.62 20 placed 53%.

John Smith's Cup – York

On Saturday we have the latest running of the valuable 1m 2 ½ f John Smith’s Cup at York. It may pay to note any runners trained by Sir Michael Stoute. In the past ten years the trainer’s record in the race is 1 winner from 5 runners 20% +4 4 placed 80% (+8.75).  

The trainer’s record in handicaps at the distance of the race is an impressive 6 winners from 12 runners 50% +29.75 A/E 2.68 7 placed 58% (+33.81) in the past 5-years.

He has two entered in this year’s renewal in Friday’s Sandown winner Melting Dew and recent Royal Ascot Group 3 third Zaaki, who look on workable mark off 103 and is best priced 12/1 for the race with Coral and Ladbrokes (just 8/1 with William Hill)

Notebook Horse:

South Seas, trained by Andrew Balding, is the weeks horse for the tracker. The 4-year-old a Group 3 winner as a juvenile but only raced twice as a 3-year-old. He had shown on his two previous starts this season that he retained the ability to win a race. On Saturday at Sandown once again he shaped with promise. On ground that would have plenty quick enough he found things happening a bit too quickly here but was staying on steadily inside the final furlong to finish 6th at the line.

He could be worth a go over slightly further than a mile but for me he just needs more ease in the ground. On going, described as soft or good to soft the gelding is 3 wins from 5 runs 4 placed on good or quicker he is 0 wins from 5 runs 0 placed. He can win again when the ground eases.

Monday Racing & Selection

At last a winner for the Monday Selection as the Ralph Beckett trained Cross My Mind won at Windsor at odds of 2/1.

There are now six meetings in Britain and Ireland today, with an extra all-weather fixture at Wolverhampton. The flat turf meetings at Ayr, Ripon, Windsor and Roscommon have some smallish fields due to the continuing fast ground. At least the jumps fixture at Worcester has attracted some decent sized fields and the demand for an extra fixture on the all-weather isn’t surprising in the circumstances.

Windsor

7:40 – Fanfair, was a shade unlucky not to win when beaten just a head at Lingfield two starts back. The filly didn’t fire last time over a furlong further at Newbury finishing 6th of 7. The drop back to 1m 2f will be more in her favour and she was placed over C&D last August on quick ground. It can often pay to overlook a poor run by horses at this sort of level and I am hoping that will be the case here.

Monday Selection: Fanfair

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable weeks punting.

You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day of the Newmarket July Festival when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here

Coral Eclipse Can End Happily for Aidan!

Morning all,

Missing A Winner Always Hurts!

Well it’s a new month and there’s plenty of high class racing action to look forward to. There's the Coral Eclipse next weekend, followed by Newmarket's July Festival and the start of the Goodwood and Galway Festivals.

The weather looks set fair for this week and the hot and dry spell could last well into July. The field sizes on turf are already suffering due to the dry conditions, with talk of hose pipe bans in the offing racecourses may well be forced to go easy on the sprinkling.

June was a tough month on both the punting and tipping front. Up to 11 days ago, it looked as if I had no chance of making a profit in June but things turned around for the better in the last week or so.

So, that's now three months profit (+160) on the spin to advised prices for my subscribers, albeit last months was a small one. What will July bring?

Saturday was one of those days that could have been so much better but I committed the cardinal sin of identifying a horse for the tracker and then completely forgot to add it. The horse in question was the Tim Easterby trained Mukhayyam, who I highlighted in this column two weeks ago. I concluded my thoughts on the horse with this sentence.:

“You can draw a line under this run and he’s handicapped to win a race in the coming weeks”.

Hopefully, you didn’t forget to add him to your trackers!

A Tale of Two Derby’s

Over the Irish Sea it was Irish Derby Day at the Curragh on Saturday and this side of the water there was a very different Derby, the Northumberland Plate or “Pitman’s Derby” at Newcastle

Charlton Stayer Holds Off Rivals In Style

Last year’s very impressive Cesarewitch winner Withhold was having his first start of the season and the 5-year-old came into the race looking like a Group horse racing in handicap and so it proved.

The gelding was given an uncomplicated ride by jockey Robert Winston and he made all to win by a fairly comfortable 2 ¾ lengths at the finish.

He will now probably head for the Goodwood Cup to tackle Gold Cup hero Stradivarius. Given he’s only had the 11 career starts, I doubt his improvement has stopped yet and he will give the Gosden horse plenty to think about.

It’s Another O’Brien Irish Derby Winner

This years Irish Derby was a triumph for an O’Brien but it was Joseph, rather than Aidan, who took home the winners prize with the progressive Latrobe.

The son of Camelot had the necessary reserves of stamina to hold off Rostropovich and Saxon Warrior inside the final furlong. What now for the winner? The manner of his victory marked him down as a stayer, so you would expect the St Leger to be a target for the colt who likes quick ground. Long term, given his owner, the Melbourne Cup would seem a good race for this progressive 3-year-old.

English 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior who had his bubble burst at Epsom was given another try at 1m 4f. The colt looked to be in the perfect position to swoop three furlongs from home but the distance found him out and he was just outgalloped by the winner. He will surely now return to shorter.

Arguably the big disappointment of the race was Epsom Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee who never really looked comfortable in the race and probably found the going too quick for his liking.

Coral-Eclipse (Group 1)  – 1m 2f

On Saturday it's Coral Eclipse Day at Sandown.  A race which is the first opportunity for this years Classic Generation to take on the older horses. At this stage it's hard to know who or how many will turn up for this great race but that goes with the territory when it comes to ante-post betting.

Ante-post favourite for the race with most bookmakers is Roaring Lion who was 3rd in the Derby and should be suited by the drop back to 1m 2f.

Recent Royal Ascot winner Poet's Word could also take his place in the line-up. If he does he will be vying for favoritism on the day.

At the prices I do like the look of the Aidan O'Brien trained Happily.  The 3-year-old was 3rd in the English 1000 Guineas, before occupying the same position behind Alpha Centauri in the Irish 1000 Guineas and then proving her stamina for an extended 1m 2f when 4th in the Prix Diane (French Oaks).

The filly is by no means a certain runner but if she does come over for the race she won't be anywhere near the 14/1 thats available with Bet365.  At those sort of odds she looks a worth an each way play.

Coral Eclipse Selection: Happily (each way)

Notebook Horse:

I am not normally one to put up a last time out winner as a horse for the tracker but this week I am going to make an exception and go for the Ed Walker trained Royal Intervention.

The Exceed And Excel filly won the Listed juvenile race at Newmarket on Saturday in impressive style. The juvenile had made a promising racecourse debut when runner-up at Lingfield in May.

The benefit of that experience was not lost on her, as she stormed away from a field of 12 fillies to win by 4 ½ lengths. She’s related to plenty of winners, including three with RPR’s in excess of 109.

She’s a fast ground horse on pedigree and she relished Saturday's quick ground. On this sort of going she can hold her own in Group company this summer.

Monday Racing & Selection:

Last week’s Monday selection Conrad Hastings landed the each-way money. Fast ground means there are plenty of small field’s around the country today and a serious lack of solid betting opportunities.

Windsor

6:00 – Trainer Ralph Beckett has his horses going well and his runner Cross My Mind comes into the race with arguably the best form.  She seemed to improve for the quicker ground when beaten just 1 ½ lengths at Salisbury on her last start 15 days ago. Up a further 3lb but she can hopefully break her maiden tag today at the expense of  Sister Celine.

Selection: Cross My Mind

All that’s left now is to wish you a profitable weeks punting.

You can benefit from Victor Value expertise and tips every day when you take a trial of his service for just £1 – Click Here

Jock Off

David's away this week sunning himself after the excesses and hard work of last week at Ascot, so we'll try and find a few tidbits and tips to keep you entertained while he's away.

Today we have some selections from a pack of systems that Kieran Ward published last week.

If you'd like to get the systems for yourself you can get them here – https://dailypunt.com/jockeysystems

The selections are…

18:20 Bath 3 Fortune And Glory (USA)
16:30 Carlisle 2 Cavatina
17:00 Carlisle 2 Final Treat (IRE)

All the best
Dave F

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