Category Archives: Systems

Betting systems are a key short cut for the bettor and a great way to profit for not much work. This page links out to our systems pages.

It’s Time For Security!

Morning all,

Sadly, no ante-post winner to report this week. However, if you followed my each-way suggestions for Saturday’s Cesarewitch; Cleonte and Theglasgowwarrior, you made a tidy profit on the race. As they finished 3rd and 5th respectively.

Plenty to cover this week. As I take a look back at Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket on Friday. Before taking an early peek at Champions Day. You can find all this and my Monday tip inside..

Joseph's Surprise In Fillies Mile!

Lets begin with a few reflections on Future Champions Weekend.

Iridessa, caused a bit of a shock when landing the Fillies Mile on Friday at 16/1. The Joseph O’Brien trained filly beat Hermosa trained by father Aidan. There was a very strong headwind and the winner got plenty of cover during the race. The runner-up was ridden more prominently and in the circumstances did well.

Pretty Pollyanna ran much better than she had done in the Cheveley Park, in finishing 3rd. The filly had been ante-post favourite for next year’s 1000 Guineas prior to her Cheveley Park run. She has now been pushed out to as big as 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral which looks a bit of an overreaction, given she wasn’t totally disgraced.

Norway Could Be Classic Contender?

The Zetland Stakes was won by Norway. Not the country. The horse.

Trainer Aiden O’Brien had won last years race with Kew Gardens and he has another future middle distance horse on his hands. Norway showed he already has excellent reserves of stamina to win this 1m 2f contest. Given his full brother Ruler Of The World, won the Derby you couldn’t rule him out for the Epsom Classic but he already has the look of a St Leger horse.

Persian Takes Centre Stage!

I suggested a couple of weeks ago that you grab the 25/1 available about the Andre Fabre trained Persian King for next years 2000 Guineas. He’s now as low as 10/1 for next year’s first colt’s classic after his win the Group 3 Autumn Stakes.

The son of Kingman looked really well in the paddock before the race and took the preliminaries in his stride. He has plenty in his favour and I really like him. He’s a good stamp of a horse and looks open to even more improvement as a 3-year-old. I was impressed with his attitude in the finish. His jockey had a hard time pulling him up after the race which suggests there was plenty in the tank.

Hot Winner Of Dewhurst!

I don’t have much to say about Too Darn Hot’s performance in winning the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Apart from the fact he put in a fantastic one. He’s clearly the best 2-year-old around and looks an exceptional horse.

The further they went the better he looked. You can see why he’s now a best priced 7/4 for the 2000 Guineas. The juvenile colts look a very strong bunch this year, so let's hope they all train on. As it looks like we could have a vintage crop.

Notebook Horse:

This weeks tracker horse is the first of the 2018-19 jumps season.

Carole’s Destrier, trained by Neil Mulholland, has dropped down the weights since finishing a ½ length second to Native River in the 2016 Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury off 12lb higher.

The 10-year-old ran well for a long way in the Veterans Chase at Chepstow yesterday.This was his first start for 169 days and he was outpaced three out. Not surprisingly he tired but at least his jockey didn’t subject him to hard race after the last.

The 2m 7f would also have been a bare minimum for the horse who has won over 3m 5f.  There are races in him if he can build on this performance, which is by no mean certain.

For reference. The gelding is 5 wins from 12 runs +16.63 7 places when going right handed, 1 win from 15 runs 5 places going the other way. He’s also 6 wins from 13 runs +17.25 when racing 21 to 45 days since his last run.

He could well head for the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton next month.

Champions Day

It’s Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday. The end of season finale is the richest days racing held in Britain with £4.35 million on offer.

The highlight could be the Champion Stakes if Cracksmen, possibly in first time headgear, takes on stablemate Roaring Lion and Crystal Ocean.

My only bet so far is Hydrangea to win the Fillies & Mares race for the second year running. Hydrangea hasn’t run since finishing last of seven in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. She showed improved form when winning last years renewal and it looks like Aiden O’Brien has trained her for the race.

Granted her three runs this season haven’t reached that level but she is almost three times the price of Bateel, the second favourite behind Lah Ti Dar. Hydrangea beat Bateel by a fairly comfortable 2 lengths in the race last year. The 16/1 available with Paddy Power looks great each way value to me.

Balmoral Handicap 

The final race on Champions Day is the Balmoral Handicap over the Hunt Cup mile.

I like Flaming Spear (11/1). He will be suited by any ease in the ground and mile now looks his trip. Hopefully the trainer's horses will have returned to form by the weekend.

Fire Brigade (16/1) has run well on Ascot’s straight track in the past and he should get the easy surface that suits. He ran really well at Ayr on his last start and this race could well have been a target for trainer Michael Bell.

The Ralph Beckett trained Mitchum Swagger (20/1) likes some ease in the ground. He ran disappointingly at Haydock last month but that was his first start since finishing 3rd in the Lincoln back in March. Just behind Addeybb and Lord Glitters that day.

The 6-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound but if produces his best he looks on a competitive mark. He ran well over C&D when 3rd in the Hunt Cup back in 2016, for his previous trainer and now races off a 4lb lower mark.

Monday Selection:

Mr Reckless provided the column with a much-needed winner last Monday at 4/1.

Gowran Park

Today’s selection is Art Of Security who goes in the 5:30 at Gowran Park. The winning hurdler remains lightly raced on the flat. This is his first start since finishing 6th of 20 to Low Sun over hurdles at the Galway Festival. The rain softened ground is in his favour and if he’s ready to roll after his short break looks on a competitive mark here.

5:30 – Art Of Security – 11/1 or bigger

Until next week

Horses to Follow

Today we have two horses for your tracker from John Burke along with a selection from his post in the Betting Insiders forum.

Saturday – 06/10

Ascot

Flaming Spear – Give the recent form of the Dean Ivory stable this wasn’t a bad run in the circumstances.  Not for the first time he wasn’t the best away but he finished his race off strongly to take 5th.

Granted he’s a bit of a ‘quirky’ horse but when all the cards fall right there is a good race in the gelding.

As I mentioned in my Royal Ascot “Horses To Follow” he looks like he needs a mile now and he has an entry in the 1m Balmoral Handicap back here on Champions Day. Now you would want to see the stable runners in a bit better form by the time of that race but he looks to have a good chance there. He can be backed at 14/1 with Sky Bet or 12/1 with William Hill for the Balmoral.

Advice: Just have him in the tracker for the Balmoral Handicap.

Newmarket

The good thing about end of season juvenile maidens & novice races at Newmarket are the future winners that can be found.

Turgenev – Who got the eye when an impressive winner of a Newcastle novice on his second career start. The John Gosden trained newcomer took another step forward here when giving 6lb + to his eleven rivals to win this 1m Newmarket novice. 

His final margin of victory 1 ½ lengths doesn’t reflect his superiority as his jockey eased him up the final 100yds.

The son of Dubawi had no problem with the easy surface and the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster could be his next assignment.

He looks a nice horse already and he’s bred to do better as a three-year-old. When he should be able to stay 1m 2f.

Besides the winner the trainer also had the third home with Franz Kafka. Another son of Dubawi he was making his racecourse debut and his inexperience showed. He stayed on nicely enough into a well beaten 3rd at the line. He’s very much a work in progress and should do better with time and racing. His dam won the 1m 2f Pretty Polly as 3-year-old and was 5th in that seasons Oaks.

Advice: Back Turgenev if he runs at Doncaster but also keep him your trackers for next season.

Today's Selections

Ayr

I pointed out last week the good record of Irish trainer John James Feane at Ayr – 7 winners from 19 runners 37% +9.13 A/E 1.68 9 placed 47%. He had another winner here last week and he send over two from his Curragh base for today’s meeting:

2:05 – Syndicate – 11/4 @ Lads & Sky
3:40 – Long Wood – 5/2 @ WH & BV

Both runners look strong contenders in their respective races. But it maybe worth pointing out that the trainers record in Class 6 races (Long Wood) is – 6 winners from 14 runners 43% +10.88 A/E 1.88 7 placed 50%. With all seven of his winners having their first run at Ayr – 7 winners from 14 runners 50% +14.13 A/E 2.05 8 placed 54% (Syndicate & Long Wood)

Systems are the Answer

With David away this week it falls to me to try and fill the void today.

David is very affective with his selections which are often found as a result of things he’s seen in the parade ring or during a race and being at the race course many times each week he is ideally placed to spot those under exposed future winners.

But for me systems are the answer to the racing puzzle.

This is because they require less work on race day as the hard work of researching the system has been done ahead of time.

And just as importantly when following a system you don’t have any indecision about backing a selection, if the system identifies the selection then it’s a bet.

I like to do the research, decide that I have a profitable angle and commit to following the selections that angle throws up for a set period of time at which time I’ll decide whether to continue with the system.

We have one such system that has been developed within the Betting Insiders Club that I will be following for the new National Hunt season which we are selling a few copies of, if you would like that you can get a copy here https://www.bettinginsiders.com/nh-system/

It’s less than a tenner and will find you 15 to 20 bets per month through to the end of the season next April.

For today’s free tip I’ve raided the Betting Insiders members forum and this selection comes from a very popular club member who posts under the name Welshman

Nottingham 4:30 Makambe – each way bet 11/1 Paddy Power

Monday Tips & Early Cesarewitch Thoughts

Morning all,

Notebook Horse Takes Ascot Handicap

It’s always good when a plan comes together. In last weeks column I highlighted Raising Sand as a horse to note after his run in the Cambridgeshire. This is what I wrote:

“There are a couple of big handicaps coming up at Ascot, a track he runs well, over 7f or 1m in the next couple of weeks. He would be of interest if turning up for one of those races, especially if there is some ease in the going which he hasn’t had since finishing 3rd of 18 in a valuable 7f handicap at Ascot 12 months ago”.

Well the 6-year-old got his optimum conditions on Saturday when winning the Challenge Cup Handicap at Ascot. Hopefully, you were on the horse at the morning prices of 9/1 or even bigger earlier in the week.

I have another notebook horse for you inside…

Frankie’s Six of the Best

Enable joined an elite group of horses, including the likes Ribot, Alleged and Treve, to win two Arc’s. It was also Frankie Dettori’s sixth win in the big race.

What a race it was, as Enable held off the fast finishing Sea Of Class by a short neck. Two fantastic fillies giving their all, flat racing at its very best. Given her wide draw the runner-up comes out of the race really well. That said the gaps opened up when her jockey needed them too.

Let’s take nothing away from the winner. She always held a good position in the race. From my eye she may have gone for home a shade to soon, as she seemed to tire in the final few yds, in what looked a strongly run race. Given her interrupted season and just one previous race it was a fine training performance by John Gosden.

Who was the lucky or unlucky horse? We should find out when the sectionals for the race come out. Until then lets just celebrate a thrilling finish to a great race.

Notebook Horse:

Raising Sand wasn’t the only recent notebook horse to win. Norway (7/2) was the easy winner of a Naas maiden on Tuesday.

This week’s notebook horse is Holmeswood, trained by Michael Dods. The 4-year-old has been knocking on the door this season and ran another good race in defeat when runner-up at Ascot on Saturday. The gelding is on a winnable mark and has an entry at York on Friday. He would be interesting if taking up that engagement.

Cesarewitch Thoughts

It’s the 2m 2f, Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch on Saturday at Newmarket. A maximum field of 34 look set to go to post for one of my favourite flat handicaps.

Willie Mullins has seven possible entries. Stratum unlucky in the Ebor heads the market at 7/1. Recent Leopardstown winner Limini (12/1) carries just 4lb more for that victory and the 7-year-old won’t be far away.

Aiden O’Brien could run St Leger 3rd, Southern France (16/1) who could be on a very good mark off 107. He also has recent Group 3 winner Cypress Creek (25/1) and  carries a 4lb penalty for his Naas success. Given both O’Brien horses could be Gold Cup contenders it's likely they are well handicapped off their present marks.

Jim Goldie looks set to run Theglasgowwarrior (33/1). He’s 37 on the list of entries but should sneak in at the bottom of the weights. The 4-year-old was finishing best of all when 3rd in the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster. If he stays this far he won't be far away.

The 5-year-old Cleonte (16/1) looks likely to represent Andrew Balding. The 5-year-old hasn't run since the Shergar Cup back in August but he's just 3lb higher now and this has been the target since Ascot.

If all the above do stand their ground it looks like it will be a top-class renewal of this historic race. Which isn’t really surprising really given the amount of prize money on offer.

At this early stage the Aiden O’Brien pair would be of interest should they come over for the race. Whilst Theglasgowwarrior and Cleonte are on the shortlist, indeed I have already had a small ante post bet on the former at 50s.

Monday Racing & Selection

Today’s action is a mixed bag. We have flat meetings at Pontefract and Windsor in the afternoon and National Hunt racing at Plumpton. Later in afternoon Kempton joins the action with a twilight meeting on the all-weather.

Sadly, no joy for last weeks Monday selection. This week I have a couple of selections from Kempton and Windsor.

Kempton

7:15 – Cosmogyral – The 3-year-old was only beaten a neck at Wolverhampton last month. That was her second decent run since the fitting of the cheekpieces. Up a 1lb for her last run, if she can transfer that tapeta form to the polytrack, then she won't be far away at the finish.

Cosmogyral – 11/2 or bigger

Windsor

3:30 – Jamie Osborne had 3 winners at Ascot on Friday and Saturday so has his horses in good form. He runs Mr Reckless here. The 3-year-old is probably flattered by his 3rd placed effort behind Cambridgeshire winner Wissahickon, two starts back and wasn’t suited by the way the race was run on his last start at Wolverhampton.

A winner at Wetherby on good to soft back in May. He then tried to give 5lb to Danceteria at Newmarket and was only beaten by ¾ length. Looks capable of a bold show if he handles the soft ground.

Mr Reckless – 7/1 or bigger

Until next week.

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