Hi all,

Inside today’s and Thursday’s main piece I’m having a look at Champions Day.

Champions Day

The final confirmation stage entries for Champions Day at Ascot came out on Monday lunchtime. The going is currently soft at Ascot but if the weather forecast proves to be correct it’s going to be heavy. More than 30mm of rain is being forecast from Wednesday through to Saturday.

If its heavy they will switch the three races on the round course the Champion Stakes, Long Distance Cup and Fillies & Mares Stakes will be switched to the inner course. The last time that happened was in 2019.  On that occasion it was heavy on the straight track and good to soft on the inner course so it’s likely to be similar going if its used this time around.

The card gets underway with the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (1:15).

Last year’s top stayer Kyprios is the bookies early bird favourite. He made a belated seasonal reappearance in the Irish St Leger last month, finishing runner-up. Better expected with that run under his belt.  His nearest market rival is a back to form Trueshan who’s won the Doncaster Cup and Group 1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp.

1:50 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f

The prospect of heavy ground on the straight course means Kinross will be strong favourite. For what might not turn out to be the deepest of renewals of the race.  

Will July Cup winner Shaquille run on heavy ground?

Previous C&D winners Rohaan and Vadream won’t be concerned about testing ground in particular the latter who relishes the mud.

2:25 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f

Again, probably not the deepest renewals and it looks very open race to me. Plenty of the leading fancies are capable of good performances but there also capable of throwing in a poor run.

Early bird favourite Free Wind was down the field in the Arc last time. She would be back in calmer waters here and connections will be hoping the race is switched to the inner course.

Jackie Oh goes very well on soft and heavy ground.  She’s yet to run over 1m 4f but shapes like she will be suited by it. The 3-year-old produced a career best last time when neck 2^nd of 11 to Blue Rose Cen in the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp.

Time Lock also produced a career best last time when winning a Group 3 at Newmarket 22 days ago. It was good to firm that day, but she should be fine on good to soft.

Via Sistina is a Group 1 winner having landed the Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 2f) at the Curragh in the spring and was only beaten a nose in a Group 1 at Deauville last time.  Unproven over 1m 4f, should stay, but goes well on testing ground and she’s the class horse of the race.

I was disappointed by Bluestocking’s finishing effort when runner-up in a Listed race at Chester last month. However, a reproduction of her Irish Oaks runner-up would see her very much in the mix.

Terms of Endearment has a bit to find on Official Ratings. However, she goes well on soft ground and a strongly run 1m 4f will suit. The 4-year-old improved to win a Group 3 at Cork (heavy) in August and could run into the money at big odds if getting a suitable stamina test.

3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) – 1m

This and the following race the Champion Stakes should be the races of the meeting. This will be run on the straight course so an ability to handle testing ground will be essential.

Inspiral has been weak in the betting and there must be a big doubt as to her participation on the ground.  Her stablemate Nashwa looked well suited to the drop back to a mile when winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July. She also has an entry in the Champion Stakes over two furlongs further. That race will be easier then this but I’m hoping she comes here.

The money has come in for Paddington and the four time Group 1 winner will like the forecast ground.

Paddington’s nearest market rival is Tahiyra is unbeaten on her last three starts in Group 1 company and her potent turn of foot makes her a possible winner. I think she’s capable of an even better performance than she’s shown so far.

The more testing the ground the better for French challenger Big Rock. He looks the best of those at double figure price and I have had the 3-year-old in mind for this race for some time.

The quality of the potential line-up is highlighted by the fact that 2,000 Guineas winner Chaldean is as big as 16/1 in the ante post betting.

3:45 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) – 1m 2f

French challenger Horizon Dore heads the early bird betting. He completed a four timer when winning the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp three weeks ago. An improving 3-year-old colt. He won’t be far away.

Mostahdaf won the Group 1 International Stakes at York. He’s got the best form on offer and goes well off a break. However, he does need good or quicker ground. Stablemate Nashwa was runner-up in the International Stakes and has since finished a close-up third in the Irish Champion Stakes.

Last year’s winner Bay Bridge wasn’t really suited by quick ground when 6^th in the Arc last time.  He likely needs soft in the going description to win this again but if he gets it, is in the mix.  Doesn’t want a tactical race though as he can be keen in his races.

My Prospero was a ½ length behind Bay Bridge in last year’s race. He bounced back to winning ways in a Goodwood Listed race (soft) last time. He’ll need to do much better than last time to win but he can’t be easily dismissed.

King Of Steel runner-up in the Derby finished one place and ½ length behind Nashwa in the Irish Champion Stakes.  He’s capable of going close on ground and over a distance that will suit. There’s a Group 1 in him and it could be on Saturday.

Royal Rhyme only won an Ayr Listed race last time but he’s going the right way and is 3-3 on soft ground. He’s another who will need to have improved again to win but back on soft ground he’s got to be seriously considered in what looks a winnable race.

Via Sistina who also holds an entry in Fillies & Mares race would need respecting if coming for this race instead.

Champions Day Verdict:

I will look at the final race on the card the Balmoral Handicap in tomorrow’s column.  As strong card and opening race aside look competitive races.  If all the main protagonists show up then the QE11 looks a cracker and the Champions Stakes has a competitive look about it.

It’s a shame about the ground but a Champions Day at the end of October is likely to face the possibility of testing ground.

I’m sure events on Saturday will open another tedious round of discussion as to why Champions Day should be held earlier in the autumn. There’s no place in the European pattern for it to be held any earlier so it isn’t going to happen.

Champions Day to all intents and purposes is the end of the flat season. Yes, there’s still three weeks left but those exciting days when November Handicap at Doncaster closed the flat season are long gone.

Wednesday Preview

A sure sign that winter isn’t too far away this afternoon. Jump racing returns to my local track Wetherby and the feature race of a seven race card is the Bobby Renton Handicap Chase (3:33).

It’s not often that Bath hosts the valuable race of the day. It does today though. The Listed Beckford Stakes (4:00) which has £36,862 on offer to the winner has attracted a good line-up.

Bath

4:00 – Beckford Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 6f

Mimikyu would beat these if back to her best form of last season. Even this year’s form might be good enough. She’s been running in better races on her four starts in 2023 and likes ease in the ground. Stablemate One Evening was beaten a head in a Listed race at York two starts back and occupied the same position behind Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last month. Lightly raced she could easily go one place better today.

Climate Friendly finished less than a length behind One Evening at York. However, he's been well beaten since and needs to bounce back.

Vera Verto made it 3 wins from 6 runs in 2023 when improving to win a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket 11 days ago. She’s an inform mare on the up and could make the step in class a winning one.  Won’t get her own way out in front as she has on her last two starts with Lady Percival and Mistressofillusion in the line-up. However, she has to be high on the shortlist.

Queen Emma was 2 lengths behind Vera Verto when third at Newmarket last time and could get into the places.

Mistressofillusion gained a second career success in the first time cheekpieces when winning a Doncaster handicap (Queen Emma, a neck back in second) last month. I don’t think we have seen the best from her yet and stepped up in distance she rates the biggest danger to Mimikyu.

Wetherby

3:33 – Karl Philippe’s two best RPR’s came over C&D at the end of 2022 on good/good to soft ground. He struggled in much better races on his last three starts. Has got a good record first time up and this race provides an opportunity to return to winning ways.

Ladronne’s C&D form figures are 112 but all six of his career wins have come with soft in the going. He’s just 1lb above his last winning mark so is back on a competitive mark. Should win a race in the coming weeks but probably needs the rain to arrive to do so today.

Pay The Piper is a dual course winner but he’s yet to win beyond 2m 1f. Conor Rabbitt takes off a handy 5lb off the top weights back and I think he can win off his present mark if ready to roll on his seasonal reappearance. Trainer is 2-3 in the past 14 days which suggests to me that 8-year-old won’t be far away.

Wednesday Selection:

Bath

Mistressofillusion – 15/2 @ Coral.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John