Good morning all,
Had my first look at the weekend cards last night and given the weather forecast (and favourable e/w terms on offer, I think, given the way the races may cut up) I had a couple of e/w bets on two races. Happy to share them with you, with the usual provisos about ante-post betting – remember, they don't line up, and that's the money gone west…!
Friday 2.25 – Steel Plate And Sections Novices Chase
Not That Fuisse (Dan Skelton)
I had an inkling he would run a bit better than the 20-1 quotes that were being bandied around before his run here last month and so it proved, coming through late in the day to finish second to the impressive Al Dancer, beaten four lengths. Given the same horse beat him eleven lengths when the two met in the Catesby Handicap Hurdle here last year (Not That Fuisse was getting 4lb) that represents an improvement – indeed, the figures say it was a career best, and back up the visual impression. Given the handicapper left him on a mark of 131, a handicap must have been a tempting option but no, this is the only race he is entered up for at present, and the hint should be taken. The step back up to 20f is a plus, some cut is no issue at all, and it’s not hard to see the race itself cutting up to 6-7 runners. With that, the 8-1 e/w 1-2-3 with Paddy looks tempting.
Sunday 3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial
I’m desperate to play this as I really want to be against Pacify. Yes, he’s won five on the bounce but you can drive a bus through the form lines, so big are the holes – just three winners as I can see from those races, and all of them at a moderate maiden/novice level – plus, he’s now going to have his stamina properly tested on a track that will make him do some work, and on ground that could be plenty soft enough for him, against better horses. Lots of reasons to try and take him on, and at 9-4 he looks a poor price to me. (Cue an eased-down 10l win).
Ecco’s not done a lot wrong in winning his two starts this season and he came up the hill perfectly fine in the Triumph. I think I’d have him just about favourite for this, although he might not want the ground too deep. Hang In There was impressive at Exeter given his pre-race sweating up, and the fact he pulled like a train in front, but at the prices, and with Skybet still offering 1-2-3 e/w, I’m going to chance Mr Grey Sky, trained by Kim Bailey. Winner of both his bumper starts at Haydock last year, the form of his latter win looks decent enough, with third home Some Detail winning a Chepstow bumper on his next start and then finishing a very respectable seventh in the Champion Bumper. Soft ground won’t be any issue to him, in fact the more rain the better, and he remains a horse of great potential.
On to today and there's not a lot I like the look of. I do have one that's on the tracker for this season running though, and that's the huge Moroder who runs in the novice hurdle at Exeter at 1.25. He was clueless on debut at Plumpton yet ran on nicely for pressure for a distant second, then improved on that to win a Uttoxeter bumper where he had to make his own running. Some hurdles and a step up in trip can only help him, and there should be races to be won with him this year. Small win bet for me today.
Good luck with all your bets today,