Hi all,

I'm off to a Beer & Cider Festival in Saltaire on Friday afternoon its the first time it been held since the pandemic and its a good opportunity to catch with a few old friends. I normally write Saturday's column on Friday afternoon but I won't be able to do it this week. However, rather than not do my usual Saturday preview I wrote most of it on Thursday evening which is something to be aware of when you read it.

Inside today’s main piece I’m going to start my previews of the Cheltenham Festival Championship races. Starting with the Supreme and Arkle on day one.

Cheltenham Festival: The Big Calls

I have had no more than a cursory glance at this year’s Cheltenham festival handicaps. The weights are just starting to come out. However, I’m more than happy to wait until final declarations to make my picks. There’s really no point in jumping in now if you’re planning on each way betting in these races. Much better terms will be available the night before with the bookies paying six places.

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

It’s not a vintage renewal. Mind you after one horse has bolted up by 15 lengths I might not be saying that.

Facile Vega just about the heads the market even though he ran well below expectations at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s 11/4 with the sponsors but 7/2 with Bet365. The latter is a more reasonable prize and if Paul Townend picks him, he’ll be shorter.

Just two horses have won the Supreme since 2008 that didn’t win their previous start and one of them had finished a close-up second.

Punters are relying on Willie Mullins working the oracle and getting this exciting prospect back on track.  I’m happy to take him on with the following:

I missed backing Marine Nationale at big odds prior to winning the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December.  Unbeaten on his four career starts I would much rather have him than Facile Vega. However, his best priced 7/2 to doesn’t appeal and I think he will drift on the day.

Luccia is also unbeaten on her four career starts. I have written before that in a non-vintage year the mare would have a big chance. The 8/1 with Paddy Power Non Runner No Bet (NRNB) makes some appeal as she will be shorter if she does run here rather than go for the easier option of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

That leaves me with the Facile Vega’s stablemate Il Etait Temps. Granted he was put in his place by Facile Vega at Christmas, but he had his tablemate back in 5^th last time. I think that Grade 1 winning performance has been slightly underestimated. Make no mistake he’s a Grade 1 novice and he’s my idea of the winner.

Supreme Verdict:

If Facile Vega wins so, be it but I’m happy to take him on. The trends guys will tell you Marine Nationale can’t win. For me he’s short enough at 7/2 and will be bigger on the day. At around 5/1 I would be interested.

Luccia would be of interest if connections rolled the dice with the mare. I can see her being 4/1 or 7/2 if she was to line-up.

I haven’t backed him, but Il Etait Temps is likely to carry my money on the day provided he’s around the 5/1 mark.

Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

I love the Arkle. It’s not because it’s a race I have much success in. Spoiler alert. I don’t. Although I did land on Edwardstone 12 months ago. No, it’s because there’s no finer sight in jump racing than a strongly run 2m novice chase at Cheltenham.

Contenders:

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that this year’s won’t produce a big field. El Fabiolo and Jonbon are vying for favouritism. The former should be clear favourite for me. His win in the Irish Arkle is the best novice chase former have seen this season. That said I have a feeling that Jonbon might beat him.

El Fabiolo stablemate Dysart Dynamo has looked the best jumper of the three. He has 10 ½ lengths to find with El Fabiolo on their running in the Irish Arkle but he was only headed coming to the last. He probably did too much up front that day and he does have a furlong shorter to race here.  I can see him getting into the places and 5/1 makes him of each way interest.

Since 2008 runners returned 13/2 & bigger are 3 winners from 107 runners -47. Compared to 12 winners from 39 runners +2.2 with those 6/1 & under. Put The Kettle (16/1) and Western Warhorse (33/1) who caused a major shock in 2014 are the only two winners sent off at double figure odds.

If there is to be Western Warhouse in the field. Who might it be? I’m a fan of Haddex Des Obeaux but he seems more likely to run in the Grand Annual.  Not sure if improving handicapper Final Orders will travel over from Ireland. If he did, he would be worth his place in the line-up. He’s not the biggest but he’s a solid jumper and going the right way. Like Haddex Des Obeaux he could switch to the Grand Annual and looking at his weight that would seem the right option.

Arkle Verdict:

It’s not race I will be getting to heavily involved in from a financial perspective. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of El Fabiolo or Jonbon ran below form here. The drop back to 2m will suit Dysart Dynamo who would be solid each way play at around 5/1. If Haddex Des Obeaux runs here I will take the hint but I think he will be headed for the Grand Annual along with Final Orders.

There will be more Cheltenham championship race previews in Tuesday’s column.

Friday racing

Newbury and Doncaster provide today’s jumps action. There also an all-weather fixture at Lingfield this afternoon and Newcastle and Dundalk conclude the day’s action.

There’s no Meydan this Friday with the racing switching to ‘Super Saturday’ where two Group 1 races are the highlight of a big evening of action at the Winter Carnival.

Dundalk

It’s not often that Dundalk provides the feature race, but it does today. The Listed Patton Stakes (7:30) run over a mile sees the return to action of the Aidan O’Brien trained Cairo. The 3-year-old holds English & Irish 2,000 Guineas entries as well as an Irish Derby entry.  A slow burner last season 2-4 including a Group 3 at Leopardstown in October. The colt must 3lb and more to his seven rivals here. But Ryan Moore comes over to ride and I will be surprised if he can’t give the weight away. The only other horse to hold a Classic entry is the Ger Lyons trained Tiverton. However, he was beaten 11 lengths by Cairo when they met at Leopardstown.  

If you’re looking for one each way to take on the likely hot favourite. You might be better advised to look at Stormy Entry and Cash Out. The first named has won his last two here including over C&D three weeks ago. He’s open to further improvement and worth a try in Listed company. Cash Out got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a maiden over C&D 14-days ago. The son of No Nay Never is capable of better and has each way claims for an inform yard.

Friday selection:

My look at Thursday’s Ludlow card paid dividends  The nap Ucanaver was weak in the pre-race betting, returned 16/1, but finished third providing a decent return for each way backers of the mare. Hopefully some of you got on the Phillip Hobbs mare Energy One in the lucky last who was available at 9/1 in the morning. All in all it was profitable day and a welcome one after the last couple of weeks.

Doncaster

I’m off to Doncaster and the Virgin Bet Conditional Jockeys' Veterans' Handicap Chase (3:10) for today’s selection.

Mr Muldoon is feasibly handicapped if his jumping holds up which it didn’t when a 2 length 2^nd of 7 at Musselburgh last month.

Venetia Williams saddled last year’s winner and I think she’s got a fair chance of back to back successes with Brainstorm. The 11-year-old hasn’t been seen since pulling up at Fakenham in April. Prior to that he had jumped well enough when a 1 ¼ length 2^nd of 7 to Guetapan Collonges at Market Rasen. Goes well off a lay off and although both his hurdles wins have come on soft ground, he should be ok on today’s ground.

Brainstorm – 9/1 @ Coral.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John