Hi all,
The ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ is just a day away. In a bumper main piece, you’ll find some hopefully winning “Festival” bets, my final Cheltenham stats and a recap of Saturday's action.
Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Ante-Post Advice
With Jingko Blue waiting for Aintree, and Golden Ace going for the Champion Hurdle now I’m down to three ante-post bets.
❌ Mares’ Hurdle – Golden Ace (10/1 @ Bet365 & BetVictor (23/10)
Now goes for the Champion Hurdle.
❌ Champion Hurdle – Anzadam (33/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (02/12) – Injured.
✅ Arkle Novices’ Chase – Majborough (5/1 @ Bet365 (16/12)
Barring a fall, this is his race to lose.
❌ Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Jingko Blue (33/1 @ Ladbrokes (21/01)
Heading to Aintree instead.
✅ Ryanair Chase – Protektorat (10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Betfred (21/01)
Strong claims of defending last year’s title.
✅ Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – Jubilee Alpha (8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (21/01)
Still the best of the British-trained mares.
Happy with what bets I have left running. If Majborough lands the Arkle on Tuesday—job done.
Verdict:
Final Cheltenham Festival Stats
As promised, here’s my final Cheltenham Festival stats.
The Jonjo & A J O’Neill and David Pipe yards have produced 13 handicap chase winners at the Festival since 2008.
That’s a solid record, but you can refine it further. Focus on horses aged 6 to 9, who had their last run between 21 and 45 days ago.
These qualifiers have a stronger strike rate and could land some winning bets next week.
👉 Get My Cheltenham Pass – All my Cheltenham Festival race previews and bets for just £19.99 here.
Saturday Recap: Misleading Going at Sandown
It was a glorious afternoon for racegoers at Sandown, but the biggest talking point wasn’t the action on track—it was the going.
Many punters, me included, felt misled by the Clerk of the Course’s official description: Good to soft, good in places. In reality, the ground was much softer than advertised.
To be fair, the going stick provided a more accurate reflection of conditions.
Source: Racing Post
Lesson Learned
For Cheltenham, I’ll be ignoring the Clerk’s description and focusing on the going stick readings. Alternatively, waiting until after the first race to assess the ground could be the best approach—though unfortunately, that luxury isn’t available to tipsters like myself and you also risk missing out on the best prices.
Go Dante Does It Again
On paper, Go Dante didn’t fit the usual trends for the Betfair Imperial Cup—but trends are made to be broken.
As we saw last Saturday with Moroder and Cracking Rhapsody, backing a previous race winner can be a smart move. I overlooked Go Dante due to the supposedly good ground, but here’s what I wrote in my preview for subscribers:
“Go Dante, last year’s winner on more testing ground, has mostly been underperforming this season but hinted he could be about to hit form when 7th of 17 to Joyeuse at Newbury last month. Now 2lb lower than 12 months ago and is handicapped to win.”
They went a strong pace, and Go Dante got a smooth run down the outside. Sean Bowen’s strength in the saddle made all the difference, seeing off Wreckless Eric, Afadil, and a staying-on Tintintin—just a length covered the first four home.
Wreckless Eric didn’t get a clear run at the last but finished strongly to snatch second. Still improving and a bit unlucky here.
Afadil looked the likely winner at the last but was collared late. He prefers better ground but confirmed he's well-handicapped for the spring. Expect him in valuable handicaps at Aintree and Ayr races he placed in last year.
Tintintin bounced back to form in fourth. He peaked last spring and looks set to do the same again.
A fascinating race—one to watch for future clues!
Future Winners Galore in EBF Final
The EBF Handicap Hurdle Final is a proven source of future winners, as I highlighted in Friday’s column. This year’s renewal should be no different.
They went a strong gallop from the start, setting things up for the closers. Laurens Bay and Off The Jury emerged late to battle it out.
Laurens Bay couldn’t go the early pace and looked beaten three out. But his stamina kicked in, and he surged past Off The Jury in the final strides. He’ll relish further than 2m4f and has the size to make a chaser next season.
Off The Jury looked to have timed it perfectly under David Maxwell, only to be caught at the line. A fine effort though, and he’ll be winning soon.
Meetmebythesea was ridden more prominently and may have hit the front too soon. A bit keen early, he was overhauled close home but ran a big race. He’ll be back in the winner’s enclosure before long.
A race to keep an eye on—plenty of these will be winning again!
Charisma Cat Shines & Hoe Joly Smoke Holds On
Charisma Cat was a welcome winner for Alan King in the Mares’ Listed Bumper, confirming her Market Rasen form with Dream Shadow. Sandown suited her better, and she was a decisive winner. A nice mare, she could now head to the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree, a race King has won three times since 2005.
The handicap chase finale produced a blanket finish, with just a length separating the first four. The uphill finish played its part, delivering a proper Sandown thriller. Excello jumped the last in front but faded out of the first three. Hoe Joly Smoke looked like he’d win comfortably at the last but had to dig deep to hold off Java Point’s rally.
A good day for the trends qualifiers, with Laurens Bay (EBF Final) and Hoe Joly Smoke both winning at Sandown.
Horse Watchers Strike Gold at Wolverhampton
The Horse Watchers had a huge day at Wolverhampton, landing both ITV races with well-backed runners.
Symbol Of Light Steals the Lincoln Trial
Jason Watson made a key move after three furlongs, pushing Symbol Of Light to the front. That decision proved crucial, as the winner got first run on Farasi Lane and held on by a short head.
Kingdom Come, last year’s winner, came from further back and lacked a recent run this time around. He’ll head to the All-Weather Final’s Day for handicap, where he was beaten a short head last year.
Whip Cracker (9/4, fav) never looked like winning but shaped well on his seasonal return. He’ll wins races back on turf.
Royal Zabeel Lands a Gamble
The Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes also went the way of the Horse Watchers, with Royal Zabeel taking his form figures to 2112 since switching to Michael Appleby. His improvement may not be done yet. He was well backed and good bets were landed.
Witch Hunter finished fast, as usual, but left it too late. He needs a strongly run race to end his losing streak.
Jabaara, making her seasonal return, was unlucky in running. She’ll win races back on turf against her own sex.
A big day for the Horse Watchers— who had another winner at Chelmsford on Saturday evening. I suspect they landed some nice bets.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John
A very old publication, still some available on Amazon, was the Form Books from Superform. Now they had a very good way of assessing GOING, all based on time and nothing to do with a Clerk sticking his walking stick in to the ground and seeing how far the soil reached up the marks.
The curious emphasis on Going making many of JB’s decisions is costing him money, time and time again this enters his calculations and is a frequent excuse for selections being beaten. I have written before about this going obsession and it makes painful, empty pocket reasoning.
I know there is those folk who love this idea that there is a finite opinion regarding the ground, a bit like ears pricked which often gets a mention by commentators as though it’s a defining moment in a horse’s outlook. They all prick their ears, have you not noticed that small fact.
Cheltenham is a horses for Courses venue, and the Irish will reap the benefits of the large prize money we give them, and they deserve it…..
Norman,
I’ve no problem with the going stick,its the brain at the end of it that’s a cause
for concern. Ha,Ha,Ha.