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Cheltenham – Friday

Good morning all,

Made it to Friday on my previews for Cheltenham, and probably my best-ante post bet of the week so far after last weekend.

Next Friday I'll give you my thoughts on the handicaps, and possibly a quick update on any other bets I've unearthed.

Tomorrow, I'll do another video preview for what's looking like a quiet Saturday.

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Triumph Hurdle

Bets to date – Tritonic (e/w 10-1)

Zanahyir has looked very impressive in three hurdles starts to date but I can’t quite get my head around the fact that we might have seen the Triumph winner as far back as October. That’s quite unusual, and we didn’t see Elliott’s last winner, Farclas, until Boxing Day. His speed figures are okay, but nothing out of the ordinary, so to me he looks one that I want to take on.

Strictly on a line through Saint Sam he holds Quillixios but there isn’t much between the two, and Quillixios was very impressive at the DRF, barely coming off the bridle to win an easy 5½l in a good time. Of the Irish pair, I think he will beat Zanahyir and come the day I’ll be looking for a match bet between the two.

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Probably the best piece of British form is the Finale, where Adagio showed a bit more resolution than Nassalam in the latter stages to claim the prize. The latter was closing in again after the last where he was out to his left, and left the impression this test would suit, but he needs to jump straighter or he’ll find himself giving ground away.

Duffle Coat looks a thorough stayer – he has an entry in the Albert Bartlett, for goodness’s sake – but isn’t short of speed and it is to be remembered he gave weight and a beating to Adagio at Cheltenham in November. All his form so far is on good and good to soft ground, but I don’t think softer would be an issue. However, if I think Zanahyir debuting in October is enough to put me off, we saw Duffle Coat in September, winning at Punchestown.

The one I like at this stage is Alan King’s Tritonic. Rated 99 on the Flat, where he stayed 12f, I was quite taken with his Ascot debut win where he showed real determination to get up close home after looking like he was held at the last. He’s clearly not short of stamina for this game, which will hold him in good stead, the time of that race was decent, and as yet the form is untested. He isn’t ground dependant, and although he holds a Supreme entry, this looks a more suitable target. Given he goes well fresh, it would be no bad thing if he went there after a break, he’s well used to the rough and tumble of a big field, having finished second in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot last year, and I like his chances here. (Update – this was, of course, written before his easy Adonis win, after which he’s now favourite. He might be one of my better ante-post picks…)

Albert Bartlett

No bets as yet.

This looks open to me, and you can give plenty a chance.

Fakiera heads up the Irish challenge after his staying on fourth to Galliard Du Mesnil in the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown and he’s been a model of consistency all season, and at all trips. He’s not really bred to want a trip, but looks like he needs one and at this stage I’d rather believe my eyes than the pedigree. It’s hard to see him not running his race as long as he handles the track.

Of those that ran in the Leamington Hurdle at Warwick, which might be a pointer to this, I think Make Me A Believer might be the one to take from it. He’s built like a 3m chaser, and there’s stamina in the family (the dam was a half-sister to Zimbabwe, who stayed 4m on a good day) and he’s improved a little with each run. He’s already shown the Cheltenham hill holds no fears, having beaten Any News there in December (never stronger than at the finish) and at 33s, he looks a little overpriced.

Those that took part in Cheltenham’s Albert Bartlett trial in December found themselves stuffed out of sight behind The Cob at Doncaster in January and that form is hard to work out now.

At this stage this does look a race to throw a few quid around at prices, so the likes of Threeunderthrufive, a ready winner over 3m at Musselburgh, and Undersupervision, who has looked a thorough stayer in three starts for NIgel-Twiston Davies, both make some appeal.

Gold Cup

Sadly, backed The Conditional at 66s a few weeks ago. RIP to a lovely horse.

It’s a strange one, isn’t it? Here we are, a couple of weeks away from the big race, and the horse that has won the race for the last two years is 11-4, and that as virtually everything else has blundered their way through the season. He ought to be about 6-4 and yet, we all stand back and look at the race and think he must be beatable, as it’s “only” Al Boum Photo.

If he wins this, then as a three-time winner he’d go into a select band that contains the likes of Arkle, Cottage Rake and Best Mate. Is he the equal of any of those? You’d have to argue the point long and hard with me.

It only goes to show, I believe, that the staying division is both open, and to a degree, weakened this season. Those that want to get him beat are pinning their hopes on Santini refinding his Cheltenham form, or A Plus Tard improving again for another step up in trip. Then we have the likes of Royal Pagaille, who finds himself a 10-1 chance off the back of winning two handicap chases, beating (checks notes) Cap Du Nord, Potters Legend and Just Your Type. Add in Champ, who, at the time I write this, has yet to race this season and is now going to Newbury to race in the 2m Game Spirit as his seasonal debut. Confused?

Update – at this point, a few words about Champ. In the main, there was plenty to like about his return at Newbury but I always think there’s a mistake in him, and his stamina for this isn’t proven. The two together are enough to make me look elsewhere, but for balance he does at least have the possibility of more to come, which you can't say for many here.

For all that Al Boum Photo might not be sexy, he’s solid, proven, and 11-4 looks perfectly fair to me. He beat Acapella Bourgeois by three times as far this year as he did in the Savills at Tramore last year. Workmanlike it may have been, but you can’t argue with the form.

Mares Chase

No bets as yet.

It’s already cutting up badly and this could look a very weak event come the day. Elimay is the right favourite after her win over Shattered Love at Naas but equally it isn’t form that’s unbeatable.

This isn’t a race I want to spend long on, as plenty entered up could (and probably will) turn up elsewhere. Colreevy is 3-3 on heavy ground this winter but was readily held in the Mares Novice hurdle here last year and looked to find the last bit of the hill a bit too much for her. Shattered Love had ground to make up on Elimay and is third favourite, which rather spells out the strength of the race.

The Happy Diva fan club will be out to support the evergreen mare but she’s not looked the same force this season and might be on the wane. Having said that, Cheltenham is her manor and even a repeat of her Paddy Power run last November, where she fell two out when close enough, would give her a chance here. I suppose, if there is any value left, it may lie with her, but you do need to forgive her last two.

Today, I've had a few quid each-way on Kloud Gate in the 5.05 at Doncaster, mainly in the hope that he's not gone at the game at that the quicker ground will see a return to form. The step up in trip will help as well, and on a quiet day, I'm hoping he can get back to winning ways.

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Good luck with all your bets today,

David.

5 thoughts on “Cheltenham – Friday”

  1. David

    I always look forward to your Saturday preview but have difficulty in hearing you as you are softly spoken

    Any chance you can speak closer to your mike

    Keep up the good work – except for your /RD selection on an A Sadik runner – he has not trained a winner for over 5 tears – I am amazed he is allowed to keep on training

    regards

    Keith from Warwick

  2. Hi Dave, is Saturday punt running late ? As yet the email hasn't arrived. I always look forward to your thoughts before making my final selections for the days racing

    Regards

    Ken

  3. Very informative article.I’m a bit undecided about my Cheltenham picks at this stage i need all the help i can get.Thanks keep up the good work

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