Morning all,

The days’ feature race is the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle (3.10) at Huntingdon a race won by Shishkin in 2020 before going on to win the Supreme at Cheltenham. Sadly, the five strong field doesn’t include Grade 1 Challow Hurdle winner Stage Star who wasn’t declared at the 48 hour stage.

At Thurles Chester Cup Winner Falcon Eight bids to book his place in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle with a win in the 2m 7f maiden hurdle (4:00). Besides the Falcon Eight. Connections of Gentlemen De Mee will be disappointed if he can’t get off the mark at the third attempt in the beginners’ chase (1:45).

Yesterday, it was announced that Defi Du Seuil was being retired from racing. Its good news he seemed to have fallen out of love with the game. I had at one point feared that he might be switched to Ben Haslam. Nothing against Ben Haslem as a trainer but it would have been sad seeing the 9-year-old doing something either he couldn’t or didn’t want to do anymore. Here’s wishing the five-time Grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences a long and happy retirement.

Inside today’s main piece there’s another instalment in my ‘Path To Cheltenham’ series. Today I’m focusing on the on the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. There’s also an interesting Cheltenham stat for those who like such things.

Path To Cheltenham

There are just five Thursdays until the start of the Cheltenham Festival and, after the weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival, I’m no firmly in festival mode. Today it’s my fifth Cheltenham ante post selection.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

I must confess I love the Albert Bartlett potatoes, their fries and frozen chunky chips. The potato processing company have been sponsoring the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle since 2008. Which makes them one of the longest sponsors at the Cheltenham Festival. 

The three miles the Albert Bartlett is the longest distance of the three novice hurdles at the festival. Past winners of the races include Bobs Worth, Unowhatimeanharry, Penhill, Monkfish and last season’s Gold Cup Winner Minella Indo.

I put up The Real Whacker in last Tuesday’s tracker piece after his recent run at Doncaster. Looking at his Albert Bartlett entry I said that “there will be worse 66/1 pokes at the festival”. Not sure if anyone had a nibble on him for the race but the 66/1 available with Coral & Ladbrokes has now gone and he’s a best priced 40/1 for the race.  

You had to be impressed with Minella Crooner’s run in the 2m 6f novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.

A winner over 3m at Punchestown. The drop back to 2m 6f wasn’t ideal for the 6-year-old. He was slightly outpaced two out when the leader quickened the pace but kept on well to finish runner-up. He’s going the right way. The distance of the race will suit him but does need to improve his jumping.

It looked an ideal prep run for Cheltenham. Mind you that performance hasn’t been lost on punters. He’s been well backed for the Albert Bartlett over the last few days and is now a best priced 5/1 with Coral & Ladbrokes.

Falcon Eight

Falcon Eight, trained by Dermot Weld, has come on to my radar for the race. Now in the ownership of Dr Ronan Lambe who’s has had a few big winners at the Cheltenham Festival. Off the top of my head Lord Windermere (RSA 2013 & Gold Cup 2014); Silver Concorde (Champion Bumper 2014); Windsor Park (Ballymore 2015) and Spring Heeled (Kim Muir 2014). He hasn’t had many runners at the festival in recent seasons which makes Falcon Eight of interest.

A smart performer on the flat, won a 2m Listed race at Sandown in 2019 and took advantage of handy mark to win last season’s Chester Cup. He didn’t jump particularly on his hurdles debut when only 5^th of 9 at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, that was a promising enough effort on ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him. He goes well on a sound surface. However, he did win the Chester Cup on good to soft. He wouldn’t really want it worse than the ground that he faced at Chester. I backed him earlier in the week at 40/1. He’s now a best priced 33/1 for the race which is still fair. Mind you the bet could go down this afternoon.

The 7-year-old runs at Thurles today in a 2m 7f Maiden hurdle. If he wins as connections will be hoping. Then he will be heading across the Irish Sea for the race.

Thurles wouldn’t be a track you would associate with producing Cheltenham Festival winners. However, looking at the stats. Those horses whose previous run was a Thurles have produced 7 winners from 45 runners. With last time winners being 5 winners from 20 runners +8.5 since 2016.

Selection: Falcon Eight – 33/1 @ Bet365 (Each Way) (NRNB)

Cheltenham Festival Stat

Staying with Irish racecourses, besides Thurles, its worth noting any runners who had their last run at Naas & Navan. It’s proven to provide a good supply of winners at the Cheltenham Festival in recent seasons.

Since 2016 the two tracks have produced 21 winners from 151 runners +76.83 (BFSP +132.3) and a profit has been made at four of the last six festivals including last season. In addition a further 26 runners have placed giving each way punters a +98.53 profit.

Adding a couple of extra filters reduces the number of qualifiers but not the profit.

Non favourites LTO.

Not trained by Willie Mullins.

14 winners from 81 runners 17% + 103.13 28 placed 35% (BFSP +144.21) and +139.58 for those backing each way.

A strike rate of 17% isn't to be sniffed at and with such qualifiers performing 92% better than market expectations. you have a trend that’s worth keeping onside next month.

You may be wondering why I have left out the Willie Mullins. Well, the Champion Trainer is 0 winners from 23 runners 5 placed using the above filters.

Compare his record with big rival Gordon Elliott who is 6 winners from 26 runners 23% +63.25 10 placed 38% (BFSP +94.43).

Clearly Naas & Navan have been used as springboard to success by Elliott rather than Mullins.  

I will provide another Cheltenham stat for you in next Thursday’s column.

Thursday Racing

Besides Huntingdon and Thurles. There’s also jumps action this afternoon at Doncaster & Ffos Las with Newcastle concluding with an all-weather teatime card.

I won't be putting up Falcon Eight as a selection today.

Although I’m obviously I’m hoping and expect him to win. Here are a few pointers for today’s action, starting in Thursday’s feature race

Huntington

3:10 – The early money has been for recent Doncaster winner Wonderwall who looks progressive. Elle Est Belle has arguably the best form on offer after the mare finished a 5 ¾ length 4^th of 5 to Jonbon in a Grade 2 Ascot last time.  The step up in trip should suit and even with her 5lb penalty she shouldn’t be far away. Harbour Lake has won both his start over hurdles. He’s got a bit to find with the other two mentioned on official ratings but he’s a good prospect. Another who should be suited by the step-up distance. He gets a narrow vote here.  

3:45 – Wilde About Oscar hit form around this time last year winning at Exeter and Uttoxeter in March. He hasn’t beaten a rival on his two starts this season but has had a breathing operation since last time. Now 1lb below his last winning mark and if he bounces back to last year’s best, he would win this.

Ffos Las

3:37 – Fairlawn Flyer & Alkopop finished 1^st and 2^nd over C&D last time. The winner has been raised 7lb for his five-length success and the runner-up remains on the same mark. Alkopop is entitled to finish ahead here at the revised weights and he’s in my tracker. That all said Fairlawn Flyer is progressive young staying handicap chaser now 2-2 over fences and can make it 3-3 over C&D.

Doncaster

2:10 – Clondaw Pretender returned to form when a ¼ length 2nd of 6 at Leicester. He’s only had four starts over fences so he could be capable of better for the step up to 3m over the larger obstacles. Minella Examiner won this race last year off 5lb higher. He hasn’t fired on three starts this season but the first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces and he’s on a winnable mark of he revives for the new headgear.

2:45 – The Unit is on a losing run that goes back to August 2018. However, he did run his best race of the season when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 8 at Wincanton on Boxing Day. It was a decent effort as the ground was soft that day and he’s a better horse on a sound surface.

3:50 – The handicapper has given Welsh Saint a chance and he ran well last time when a 6 ½ length third of 11 at Wincanton three weeks ago. Lord Roco has improved with each of his three starts over hurdles. Finished his race of strongly when winning a Newcastle maiden hurdle (2m 4 ½ f) last month. Looks the type to improve further for step up in distance which he gets here and appears to be on a competitive mark for his handicap debut.

Thursday Selection:

Tight Call was a non-runner yesterday. Let’s hope we get a run from today’s selection which goes at Ffos Las and its dual C&D winner Fairlawn Flyer.

Ffos Las

3:37 – Fairlawn Flyer – 4/1 – Gen.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John