Chester Cup Day

Hi all,

Subscribers are nicely ahead after the first two days at Chester. I put up Paddy The Squire at 11/1, and he landed a bit of a touch in the process being returned 4/1.

Unfortunately, the race wasn’t shown on ITV, so I didn’t include it in yesterday’s column.

Today’s focus is Chester Cup Day. Inside this piece, I’ll share thoughts on the key races and where the best betting angles lie.

Chester May Festival – Day Three Preview

Day Three of Chester’s May Festival features the historic Chester Cup, supported by a competitive undercard including the Group 2 Huxley Stakes and a deep Earl Grosvenor Handicap. Friday’s seven-race card rounds off what has been an interesting three days on the Roodee.

1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Grosvenor Handicap (Class 2, 7½f)

A wide-open handicap to kick off proceedings. Several of these met in a similar C&D race last August — notably Two Tempting (1st), Divine Libra (2nd), Gorak (3rd), and Yanifer (5th) — and that form looks key.

Two Tempting impressed when winning here last August and loves good ground. He’s only 1lb higher than when winning over C&D last summer and has a handy low draw in stall 1. If he gets luck in the run he’ll go close.  

Divine Libra shaped well behind Myal on his return and has Ryan Moore booked but he’s drawn out wide in 11 which is tricky.

Gorak ran a cracker behind Two Tempting last year and arrives race-fit after a solid second to Myal at Haydock last time. He’s drawn well and makes each-way appeal.

Yanifer is a credit to Harriet Bethell — one of the North’s most underappreciated trainers — but fast ground might not suit.

Irish raider Transcending Glory represents Johnny Murtagh and made all to win at Leopardstown last summer. With the yard in form, he’s respected first time up.

2:05 – Boodles Darley EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 2, 6f)

Only six runners and not the strongest maiden. For Placepot players, Al Wasl Storm could be the safest option. Trained by Owen Burrows, whose runners are flying, he showed promise at Newbury and should improve. Of the newcomers, the market will guide, but experience might count for plenty around this track.

2:35 – Ire-Incentive Huxley Stakes (Group 2, 1m2½f)

A seven-runner Group 2 with depth. The Foxes, a Dante winner and Derby fifth two years, returned to winning ways in Listed company at Newcastle last November. He sets the standard, though he’s not bombproof favourite.

Liberty Lane has Ryan Moore up for Karl Burke and won the Cambridgeshire last autumn. That form gives him a shout, but the track and quick ground might not be ideal.

Space Legend returns from a gelding operation and shaped well in the Great Voltigeur (1m4f) last season — the trip might be on the sharp side.

Irish raider Deepone is fascinating. We haven’t seen him in a year, but he was smart at two (won a Group 2), and the yard doesn’t send many here. Bred to improve over the distance and a big player if retaining his juvenile ability.

3:05 – Ladbrokes Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap, 2m2½f)

Seventeen go to post for this iconic staying handicap, and as ever, it’s a mix of seasoned campaigners and improving stayers.

Zoffee bids to win the race for the second year running. He’s only 1lb higher than last year. Chester suits him and with Joe Leavy taking off a handy 3lb he’s respected.

Emiyn, runner-up last year, made a decent comeback at Musselburgh and is 3lb lower this time. He’s another with strong course form and handicapped to win.

One of the most interesting runners is Leinster, who steps up in trip again for Joseph O’Brien. A decisive winner at the Curragh over 1m4f on return, he’s got Ryan Moore booked and could be well ahead of his mark if staying the trip.

Caballo De Mar has won five in a row the last four at Southwell and carries a 3lb penalty. He won on turf at Ayr last September and remains competitive if translating his recent improvement back to the grass.

East India Dock showed major progress over hurdles over the winter and was third in the Triumph Hurdle. A progressive stayer on the flat as a 3-year-old if his improvement translates back on the level he would take some beating.

Vaguely Royal a winning hurdler last autumn suited to good ground is the outsider of the 16 runners, but he’s handicapped to be thereabouts if his stamina holds up.

3:40 – Precision Facades Handicap (Class 2, 1m2½f)

A field full of exposed proven handicappers. Warda Jamila ran a fine race on her return in the City & Suburban at Epsom and could go one better for a yard that won this in 2023 and 2015.

Rathgar was runner-up in the City & Suburban last time but needs to overcome but stall isn’t ideal for a front runner.

Take Heart, from the Johnny Murtagh yard, a Goodwood handicap winner last summer has had a couple of runs and could relish this turning track if settling early in the race

Grey Cuban won over twice over C&D last season and wasn’t disgraced on return at Kempton. Trainer Hugo Palmer targets this meeting and with a handy 3lb apprentice booked, he’s not out of this.

Letting the Algorithm Loose at Chester

The future of race analysis is moving at breakneck speed — and AI is very much part of that. Like plenty of others, I’m trying to adapt. It’s a work in progress, and one thing has become clear: if you ask AI the right questions, it will often find the right answers. But that’s the trick — asking the right questions.

Yesterday’s opening handicap was a perfect case in point. I didn’t input anything about the draw bias — and at Chester, of all places, that was a costly oversight. AI didn’t factor in the inside stalls, so naturally it couldn’t make the most informed call. It’s not that the tech failed — I just didn’t give it the right variables.

That’s the crux of it. AI isn’t some silver bullet for punting. It’s a tool — and a powerful one — but only if you steer it with the right data. Course quirks, ground, draw bias, pace, trainer patterns –  all those nuances we look for manually need to be spelled out clearly when feeding into the algorithm.

The upside? When you do guide it correctly, it’s like giving yourself a second pair of eyes. It can cross-check form, flag overlooked angles and pick up on trends you might miss when you’re knee-deep in declarations. But like any good partnership, it needs a bit of training.

Chester’s a great testing ground for this sort of analysis — pace bias, tight turns, and draw-dependent handicaps provide all the variables. Just make sure you bring the right questions to the table.

I’ll come back to this subject later in the season when we’ve advanced the AI. .

For those interested a final look at what AI’s best bets and Placepot suggestions for Friday’s card.

Best Bets – Chester (Friday)

1:30 – Two Tempting

Ran a cracker in the Spring Cup and won this C&D race last year. Well drawn, fit, and has conditions in his favour.

3:05 – Leinster

Progressive stayer who won well at the Curragh and could be well ahead of his mark. Ryan Moore takes the ride for Joseph O'Brien.

3:40 – Warda Jamila

Unexposed filly who shaped nicely at Epsom and should enjoy this track. Yard knows how to ready one for this race.

Suggested Placepot – Chester (Friday)

1:30 – Two Tempting, Gorak

2:05 – Al Wasl Storm

2:35 – The Foxes, Deepone

3:05 – Leinster, Emiyn

3:40 – Warda Jamila, Grey Cuban

4:15 – Lady Vivian, Motawaared

Perm: 2 x 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 32 lines

£0.10 stake = £3.20

£0.20 stake = £6.40.

If you want my weekend selections, York Dante picks and Epsom Derby & Oaks, you can get them here.

Good luck with your Friday bets.

John