Following on from yesterday's research into a possible new National Hunt system we had one comment (thanks Kenny) with suggestions for further research. So today I'll look into the figures a bit further and see what we can dig up.
First off I looked at race distance for the horses that were up in class for the trainers we selected.
Here's the data I was returned…
From this I can see that some distances have proven to be more profitable than others in the past.
But I can think of no logical reason why some distances would have a higher strike rate and more profit. For example why would 2 mile and 1/2 a furlong races be profitable but 2 mile 1 furlong races not be. It's only a hundred meters further!
If You Struggle with Long Losing Runs Winning Favourites Will Turn Your Betting Around
High Strike Rate, Regular Payouts, Winning Favourites
However it's worth noting that the majority of these race types are 2 mile races, and they are very profitable.
Next I looked at courses, here's the overall table…
We can see that some are very profitable and some very unprofitable. I'm sure we could think up reasons why some would be more profitable than others, but I suppose what we really should do is to pick just one of our trainers and break down the data for course and distance for just that trainer and see if we can build a profile for these types of runners for each trainer.
So I'll put that on my to do list for next week and we'll see if we can drill down and build a collection of winning profiles.
There's no bets for the original system idea yet, if you missed it you can read it here
Today's Selection
3.30 Uttoxeter Carningli – win bet – evens Bet 365
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Great bit of research. Many thanks.
Would the class of race have any influence?
Thanks for the fantastic research !!!
Can’t wait to see next weeks follow up, as I’m sure trainers must have favoured courses & horses for courses?
Would also be interested in 2nd/3rd time out in upped in class race results.Reason being that I’m not always convinced horses are given the reigns for the 1st or 2nd run to boost the odds for a bit of a sting??
Or am I just seeing ghosts 🙂