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Coral – Eclipse Preview

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I begin my look ahead to Saturday’s big race with a preview of the Group 1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown. Plus, there’s a look at the best of Wednesday’s action.

Looking Ahead To The Weekend – Part 1

There’s racing from two courses on ITV this Saturday Four races from Sandown including the Coral -Eclipse and three from Haydock.

Sandown – Coral-Eclipse

The Coral Eclipse was first established in 1886. It has since become renowned for attracting some of the best middle distance horses in Europe.  A race that’s provided plenty of exciting finishes over the years and some legendary winners. Previous winners of the race include the likes of Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Sea the Stars, and Enable.

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The race has been sponsored by Coral since 1976 and is the first opportunity in Britain for the classic generation to take older horses in a Group 1 contest over middle distances.

Trends:

Looking at the last 15 renewals of the race which contains 15 winners from 106 runners, 35 places.  It’s a race with few meaningful trends.

Trainers:

The Gosden yard are 4 winners from 14 runners 29% -3.64, 7 placed 50%.

Aidan O’Brien is 3 winners from 23 runners -14.83, 8 placed 35%.

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine
Odds SP:

16/1 & bigger – 0 winners from 32 runners, 4 placed

Age:

Three-year-old’s and five year-old’s have the best records in the race with six winners each.

Horses stepping up from a mile haven’t done particularly well in recent seasons. The last winner to step up from 1m last time out was Mount Nelson (2008) trained by Aidan O’Brien.  Giant’s Causeway also trained by Aidan O’Brien did the St James Palace Stakes (1m) /Coral Eclipse double in 2000.

Sex of Horse:

Filles & mares are 1 winner from 10 runners -8.33, 3 placed. The sole female winner was Enable (2019) trained by John Gosden.

That’s all I have on the trends front.

Contenders:

Just six were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage: Emily Upjohn, Paddington, Anmaat, Luxembourg, Dubai Honour, and West Wind Blows.

My odds are in brackets.

Emily Upjohn (2/1)

Showed a good change of gear to win the Coronation Cup but that was over further. Slight worry if the race turns out to be tactical but given the speed, she showed last time I don’t think 1m 2f on a stiff track will be an inconvenience. A high class mare who’s ground versatile for a yard with an excellent record in the race

Paddington (Evens)

Big improver this season winning all four starts including the Irish 2,000 & St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Despite the recent record of horses stepping up to a mile if any trainer can Aidan O’Brien can. I think the step up to 1m 2f can see the 3-year-old improve again. This will be his fifth race of the season but if he’s recovered from Royal Ascot then he will take the beating.

Anmaat (10/1)

One of two 5-year-old entries. Lightly raced for his age he was a big improver last season and last time out won the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp. He’s a tough sort who seems ground versatile. This is the deepest race he’s run in and should give a good account of himself.

Luxembourg (10/1)

Last year’s Irish Champion Stakes winner got a good front running ride from Ryan Moore to win the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup two starts back. Wasn’t able to follow up next time when no match for Mostahdaf in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. Can’t be dismissed but likely yard’s second string if they run Paddington.

Dubai Honour (25/1)

Isn’t out of this on official ratings and he did win two Group 1’s in Australia in the spring. Needs the ground to ease to have any chance in this company though.

West Wind Blows (200/1)

A Group 3 winner at Longchamp two starts back and was a respectable enough runner-up to Pyledriver in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. Even his last time effort wouldn’t be good enough.

Coral Eclipse Verdict:

There’s an uncertain weather forecast. There could be a lot of rain and if it does arrive then it could turn into more of a stamina test which would suit Emily Upjohn. If the ground is good, I’m with Paddington who gets a handy weight for age allowance and is a top class colt. Anmaat & Luxembourg have claims if the rain arrives. I like Anmaat but he’s too short for me at present.

Wednesday Preview

It’s the Ladies Derby Day as racing return to Epsom for the first time since Derby Day.  The most valuable race of the day is at Tipperary where the Coolmore Ten Sovereigns Tipperary Stakes (5:05) is the highlight of a seven race card. Meanwhile the most competitive handicap looks to be the eight runner Download The Vickers.Bet App Handicap at Thirsk (5:20).

Epsom

Becky Smith rode the winner of last year’s Ladies Derby and has good chance of another win in the handicap on Ghadbbaan for the inform Mark Walford. Not the most reliable of handicappers and is dropping back in trip here.

Women amateur riders don’t come any more experienced than Serena Brotherton who won the 2021 renewal on Tralee Hills. Serena teams up with Tralee Hills once more and the pair are handicapped to go close once more.

Fern O’Brien has been booked for Lucky’s Dream. The 8-year-old has returned from a 627 day absence in decent form for his new trainer. Can race off the same mark as when a head 2nd of 9 at Newbury 8 days ago.

Verdict: If Lucky Dream can reproduce his recent Newbury from here, he’s the one to beat. That said Ghadbbaan looks the value pick at double figures odds even though he might be better over further than 1m 4f.

Tipperary

Gunzburg improved to finish a 1¾ length 2nd of 7 to Matrika in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes at the Curragh just 4 days ago. The filly would have to be respected if returning to the track so quickly in the Tipperary Stakes.

The bookies early bird favourite is the Ryan Moore ridden Alabama. The son of No Nay Never did best of those who were ridden far side when a 4 lengths 5th of 23 in the Listed listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. The colt can have that effort marked up and the first time blinkers he wore last time are retained. He could be quirky but he’s also clearly talented.

Verdict: Of course, its not a two race but I would be surprised if the other seven runners in the line-up were good enough to beat Alabama or Gunzburg.

Thirsk

Top weight Mr Wagyu will be popular with punters to take advantage of a handy mark. A 2 ½ length 7th of 27 in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time this represents a drop in class for the 8-year-old.

Rock Of England a previous C&D winner arguably comes into the race in better form than Mr Wagyu. The 3-year-old put in an improved performance to win a Hamilton handicap two starts back and showed he remains in form when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 8 at Ripon 14 days ago. Likely to be up with the pace with Mr Wagyu and should go well again.

Tinto won twice early last season over C&D & Ripon after switching to Michael Dods. Two low key efforts in the Spring. Before a good 2 ¼ length 4th of 11 over C&D 46 days ago. The 7-year-old is 2lb below his last winning mark and is poised to pop up in a race like this before too long.

Ghathanfar hasn’t really been at his best so far this year. But he is 1lb below his last winning mark and is one to consider. As is Music Society who finished 2 places in front of Tinto over C&D in May and was back to form when 3rd of 13 at Pontefract 10 days ago and is another to consider.

Verdict: It’s hard to look away from Mr Wagyu given I have put him up as one of my recent eyecatchers but 11/4 just doesn’t tempt me. The 3-year-old Rock Of England and Tinto both look better value.

Wednesday Selection:

Thirsk

5:20 – Tinto – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John

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