After last weeks success Nick Hardman, of Betting Insiders, casts his eye over this afternoons Coral Sprint (Newmarket 3.30)…
This Saturday we head to Newmarket for the Coral Sprint Trophy over the straight 6 furlongs on the Rowley Mile.
This race has been won by some decent types in the past including Mince (2012) and Genki (2007) both trained by Roger Charlton.
He holds a very strong hand again with Stomp currently heading the market and stable mate Stars Above Me vying for second favouritism with Clive Cox’s Fear Or Favour.
Before we look at the runners in more detail we should cast our eyes at the profiles of the previous winners of this race.
I would not read too much into the fact that 13 of the last 17 winners were drawn in stalls 1 – 8. There is no consistent draw bias on the straight Rowley Mile course.
The width of the course allows the rails to be moved to even the wear on the track and the stalls can be positioned either side.
The results are more likely to be indicative of where the pace in the race has been.
Of more interest to us is the fact that in the last 17 renewals, those horse in the top 3 in the betting account for over 50% of the winners.
From a trends perspective we are looking for a horse with previous winning form at the distance that has had a top 3 finish in the last 8 – 30 days.
Using those trends we can narrow the field down to 5 runners – Stomp, Stars Above Me, Deeds Not Words, Fear Or Favour and Nova Champ.
Not surprisingly, these 5 are amongst the top 6 in the betting.
Roger Charlton’s Stomp has been ultra-impressive in his 2 wins this season and has a serious chance of completing the hat-trick.
Up 8lbs for those wins this half-brother to Mince he could be well ahead of the handicapper. Mince went up 28lbs as a 3 year old and Stomp could well be the class act in the race if anywhere near as progressive.
Stars Above Me also holds strong claims. Just touched off by Nova Champ on her seasonal reappearance, Roger Charlton’s filly should come on for the run and the booking of William Buick catches the eye.
In fact the jockey arrangements on Charlton’s 2 runners are quite interesting. Joey Haynes rides Stomp for the first time and takes off a useful 5lb yet he rode Stars Above Me to victory on her second start.
On jockey booking alone it is difficult to see which one the yard fancies the most.
The booking of William Buick suggests Stars Above Me has a very serious chance here.
Deeds Not Words ran third on his latest start at Thirsk behind Mecca’s Angel and Blithe Spirit (a winner since in a valuable handicap at Chester) and ahead of The Hooded Claw (also a winner next time out).
However, he is 8lb above his last winning mark and he has to improve to win this. Nova Champ is up 7lb in a much better race but he did beat Stars Above Me last time out.
That was his third run of the campaign so he was certainly match fit and Stars Above Me should reverse the form on these better terms.
Fear Or Favour steps up in class here but is progressive and could go very close.
Of the others, Richard Hannon’s Expert has course figures of 2112 and is now just 2lb than when winning over C&D last November.
Currently 20/1 he might tempt in the each-way backers in the race but has to put a disappointing run at Ascot behind him. He also has winning form over 7f which may see him staying on at the end if they go a frantic pace from the off (the Rowley Mile is a stiff 6f).
Eastern Impact and Meritocracy have useful juvenile form but need to improve to get involved.
This is a hot renewal but I am drawn to those at the top of the market who have the potential to take this on the way to better things.
I fancy this to go to one of the Charlton runners and having backed Stomp @9/2 earlier in the week I am happy to also back Stars Above Me @11/2.
Stomp is a best priced 3/1 after final declarations (and a general 5/2). If you haven’t backed him already at the bigger price then the value now probably lies with stable mate Stars Above Me.
Likeliest winner: Stomp @3/1
Value play: Stars Above Me @11/2
Each-way alternative: Expert @20/1 (1/4 odds, 3 places)