I've just been catching up with some reading and found an interesting piece in this months Racing Ahead.
David Wilson has done some research on favourites and concluded that if you back all favourites that you will make a profit.
This goes against my beliefs, but it's not something I've checked on for a number of years.
David has made some rules to improve profits that seem a bit arbitrary to me, if you plan on betting all favourites as a result of this research then I suggest you read the full article yourself.
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Here are the raw figures from November 2011 to January 2013.
Runs – 14391
Wins – 5146
Strike Rate – 35.7%
Return on investment – 1.4%
Over half the betting days were profitable and the longest losing run was 22.
These results can be improved to a 2.89% return on investment by setting an odds rule of evens to 5/1, this rule gave a profit of 347 points over the 15 month test period.
In the article David suggests some further rules that increase the return to 4%.
Racing Ahead is in newsagents at just £2.99 if you would like to see the full article.
If you picked up Lester's free system yesterday I can save you a bit of time going through the races today, there is just one selection which is Edmund Kean in the 2:00 at Taunton.
You can still get the system – Click Here
Today's selection courtesy of Trainer Trends
3.50 Wetherby Deise Dynamo – Win bet
Hi there,
I have tried to sign up for Lesters free system about six times now, still no link has been sent. Tried looking in the usual suspects spam folder etc but no joy. I sure would appreciate it if you could help me get a copy. I wouldn’t normally bother you with this but I can’t see any place to get hold of him myself. Thanking you
A 15 month test period doesn’t seem a long enough test to me.
However, I know its true that you only need a small improvement in Strike Rate or Odds obtained in order to make backing favourites (slightly)profitable.
Using A Massey I have researched my own niche system for Favourites, it has a great strike rate and a superb ROI even to SP or BPSP after 5% commission. Of course the problem is that it has so few selections- usually only 1 to 3 per week.
Edmund Kean is not a selection unless it reaches Evens in the pre race market, currently 1.61 on Betfair.
I received info from the system producer that there were 3 other selections: 1 at Taunton and 2 at Wetherby. To me the Taunton one is not a qualifier.
@Chris, Thats a Lower Class pick. But I think there is a better way to make a profit than just using odds limits.
Try looking at picking Races and prior Form that practically guarantees that although a Favourite, a horse will be under-bet rather than over-bet.
Edmund Keane was not a qualifier as the system states the selection should be 1/1 or better.
Cheers.