Good morning all,
An interesting little card at Doncaster, plenty of runners and a couple of whiffy favourites all means it’s time to try a few Colossus lines. I’ll be putting them up around 10.30am, I’ll keep it small fun stakes so plenty of you can have a few quid on with me, and my thoughts on the card are on the main piece.
1.00 Doncaster – 2m3f Handicap Chase
Straight away, a race I want to take the front two on, to varying degrees. Brianstorm, as so many do, ran well for Venetia off a long absence at Exeter three weeks ago, but there are no guarantees he’ll do it again, and he could bounce. Discko Des Plages ran out a ready winner at Catterick but not for the first time, didn’t jump well. I suppose the place to bring a moderate jumper is Doncaster, the fences aren’t much stiffer than upturned brush-handles, so he has to be considered, but neither are bombproof.
Slanelough goes in, as he’ll love the ground and has been placed on all three occasions he’s raced at Doncaster. Le Grand Fromage is at least consistent and should run his race, which is all we are looking for, so he’s considered, and at a price so is Oistrakh Le Noir, who caught the eye in a better race at Kempton last time, and might yet have more to offer over fences.
2.05 Doncaster – 2m Handicap Chase
I considered leaving Ibleo out, as he tends to win right-handed, but he’s got plenty of very solid form left-handed too, and this does look winnable, so it would be foolish to leave him out.
I’ve always been a fan of The Big Bite and I’d have him as the likely winner here, as he looks sure to get his own way up front, is proven on the track and the ground won’t be an issue. He’s up 5lb for a ready win at Newbury where he always looked in control, and I think he’ll take plenty of passing.
Charmant will probably be the rag of the party but he makes some appeal, coming back down to a winning mark and will find this more to his liking than 3m on good ground at Newcastle when last seen. Not impossible to see him running on into the frame if they go too quick up front.
3.10 Doncaster – 2m Novice Hurdle
What to make of Sprinter Sacre’s brother, Flinteur Sacre? On goes the hood after a middling effort at Newbury where he was ridden with kid gloves for a finishing effort, but there wasn’t a lot there once asked for his final run, and he’s clearly not one for the mortgage. He should be in the frame here, but equally we have to try and get him out, as he’ll be a banker for plenty and if he blows out, it’ll pay well.
Lunar Sovereign's penalty is probably enough to stop him winning this, but we aren’t looking for the winner, we’re looking for something that is going to run his race in testing ground and on that, he’s proven and goes in. Jack Sharp’s C&D debut third came in a race full of promising types on paper and if he handles this slower surface, he can get involved too.
Those of you that like to play these races with the extra places that 365 offer (probably as many as seven or eight places here) could do worse than Isthebaropen, beaten a long way here last time but he travelled into the race well, and didn’t seem to stay. A drop back to 2m might see him perform a bit better, and he’ll still be a big price to finish in the six/seven here.
3.45 Novices Handicap Hurdle
Looks wide open, this, and even if we are still in at this point, we’re far from home.
There isn't even a solid one you can hang your hat onto. I suppose Tortuga Bay, and to a lesser extent, Asharann look the two most likely to run their races, and a first time hood should help Asharann, who pulled too hard for his own good last time out.
Others I’m considering – the well handicpped Bullion, who showed a lot more last time and if it wasn’t a fluke, could progress again in cheekpieces, Das Kapital, who has his quirks but will travel well here and could nick a place, and Donladd, who comes from a yard in form and could do better for a switch to handicaps.
Today's selection – Das Kapital (e/w 5 places) 3.45 Doncaster
Good luck with all your bets today,