Good morning all,
Doncaster starts to get good today (it was fairly moderate fare yesterday) with a couple of Group races plus the big Sales race of the week, and I've had a look at the four races that will be shown on ITV4 this afternoon.
Already looking forward to my annual visit to Yarmouth next week – hoping we get some lovely autumnal weather as we have in the South today!
1.20 – 6 1/2f Nursery
I shall be giving Evie Speed another chance after her blowout at York last time (when very well fancied) but she does have half an excuse for that as she stumbled out of the gates and probably used up too much of the petrol trying to get her position back. Hopefully she can get away on level terms today as she was quite impressive the time before at Ripon and clearly has speed to burn. Stall 14 could be good, could be bad – plenty of winners came down the middle yesterday but you can win up the rail as well – and I shall be having a saver.
I do think Lady Cosette is the most likely winner though. She could be let in very lightly off this mark, I believe, and the first time blinkers suggest she's going to be ridden more prominently that has been the case so far. She can track Evie Speed from stall 13 if she so wishes and could simply be too strong late on.
2.25 Doncaster – May Hill Stakes (1m)
Dubai Beauty is going to be all the rage for this after an impressive debut at Newmarket where she came away late in the day for an impressive victory and clocked a huge speed figure, one which, if repeated, will make her very hard to beat. But the form of that race has been rather let down by the second, who didn't give her running at Goodwood next time out, and I do have a worry that 2yos that clock a massive figure first time up don't reproduce it next time, mainly down the the effort that was required to clock the time in the first place. So I'll try a small e/w bet on Sand Share, who is very nicely bred and was well backed to make a wining debut at Kempton. She only had to be pushed out hands and heels there and will improve no end. It's just a case of whether she acts with a bit of cut, but you can argue that for plenty of these.
3.00 Doncaster – Park Hill Stakes (1m6 1/2f)
Pilaster is the one to beat after a very game effort in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood where she really knuckled down under pressure to score by a short head form Leger fancy Maid Up, and the speed figure recorded was simply top-class. It's no wonder all the 13-8 was taken last night as you can argue she's well on her way to Group 1 level already, and this might not take an awful lot of winning.
Horseplay is second in after a string of decent efforts in G1/G2 company and if she stays, she has her chance, but it's hard to see her giving Pilaster the weight. If there's an e/w shout in the race it could be Isabel De Urbina, who has 5l to find with Pilaster on Goodwood form but was staying on at the business end, and won't mind a bit of cut in the ground. She could get nearer Pilaster today and might reward e/w support.
3.35 Doncaster – 6 1/2f 2yo Sales Race
Favourites have had a lean time of it the last few years and we've had a 100-1 winner as well, so I'm all for having a couple of stabs at this at prices.
Interestingly not many of these have led their races out recently and the most likely pace angle I can see is Sir Victor from stall 2. Strictly on what he's done he can't win, but at least he took a step forward form-wise last time and although he'll need another here (and then some) the 33-1 Paddy Power 5 places makes a bit of appeal. He'll do for me, and for the saver it has to be The Great Heir, who is a whopping 66-1 with Hills (3 places) and 33-1 five places Paddy Power. I shall split my bet between the two. He did well at York when fifth (Rathbone ahead of him) faring best of those drawn high in the race and the way he was finishing his race off suggests this extra half furlong won't go amiss. Looks a big price and yard have won this in the past (with the 100-1 short Morning Post, funnily enough!)
Today's selection – Sand Share (e/w) 2.25 Doncaster
Good luck with all your bets today,