Don’t Be A Loser

Today we have the second part of an article by Jonathan Burgess author of the successful False Favourites lay betting system.

Most punters simply do not have the mental willpower to ride out even the most modest of losing runs!

To illustrate this point clearly, let us take a look at the proofed results from two betting services compiled by racing index.com

Pay particular attention to the BSP profit columns. You’ll notice the losing months are highlighted in red. Both Over 22 and Stable Investment tipping services had 5 losing months this year.

Imagine you had subscribed to the Over 22 service in January 2012, during which there was a -16.92 loss.

How would you have dealt with that situation? Be honest with yourself – would you have continued with the service or cancelled your subscription?

Obviously I would not assume how you might react, but my experience of dealing with many different types of punters tells me that fickle Gamblers would have unsubscribed at this point thinking the service was useless.

By doing this they would have missed out on three subsequent months of profit February 2012 + 24.87, March 2012 +70.84, April 2012+12.34. These profitable months were then followed by three losing months, but at this point in time the service has made a profit of +67.43 points profit if betting all selections to Betfair SP.

Proofed Results for Over22 Back Selections

Month by Month Breakdown of Proofed Results Based on 1 Point Level Stakes

Month Bets SR% Staked SP Profit BSP Profit

October 2012 7 14.3 7.00 4.00 6.90
September 2012 16 25.0 16.00 -2.75 -2.41
August 2012 31 19.4 31.00 -1.37 2.45
July 2012 21 4.8 21.00 -18.00 -18.33
June 2012 24 20.8 24.00 -9.24 -9.33
May 2012 28 25.0 28.00 -1.61 -2.98
April 2012 37 18.9 37.00 5.13 12.34
March 2012 24 33.3 24.00 54.89 70.84
February 2012 50 22.0 50.00 12.77 24.87
January 2012 35 20.0 35.00 -16.25 -16.92

Total for 2012 273 20.9 273.0 27.57 67.43

Imagine you had subscribed to the Stable Investment service below, in January 2012.

A respectable 9.54 points profit was followed by what most of us would consider a disastrous three months, losing over 112.59 points. Betting their selections for just £10 stakes would mean you`d be £1125.9 down for that period.

At this point most punters would have bailed out of this service concluding it was absolutely useless.

Well, you can guess what happened next. In the following three months of May 2012 , June 2012 and July 2012 this service went on to make a three month profit of +332.03 points to Betfair SP

If we minus the three-month loss of £1125.9 from the profit of £3320.3 that would have provided a profit of £2194.4 up to that point. There were two more losing months followed by a profitable month.

So far this year Stable Investments has made over 220.86 points profit, even with five losing months.

Proofed Results for Stable Investments Back Selections

Month by Month Breakdown of Proofed Results Based on 1 Point Level Stakes

Month Bets SR% Staked SP Profit BSP Profit

October 2012 297 23.6 297.00 -7.79 15.59
September 2012 447 20.8 447.00 -36.21 -7.93
August 2012 518 21.6 518.00 -47.53 -15.78
July 2012 465 23.7 465.00 46.12 108.91
June 2012 415 22.7 415.00 63.90 103.30
May 2012 387 24.3 387.00 36.07 119.82
April 2012 403 19.1 403.00 -65.92 -20.88
March 2012 370 20.0 370.00 -55.39 -29.11
February 2012 279 17.6 279.00 -74.56 -62.60
January 2012 278 20.5 278.00 -13.55 9.54

Total for 2012 3859 21.5 3,859.0 -154.86 220.86

Again, if you look at the monthly breakdown of the Over22 Lay service results, you’ll see there are two losing months so far this year.

Proofed Results for Over22 Lay Selections

Month by Month Breakdown of Proofed Results Based on 1 Point Level Stakes

Month Bets SR% Staked Profit

October 2012 11 72.7 11.00 9.00
September 2012 18 27.8 18.00 -6.89
August 2012 17 47.1 17.00 6.18
July 2012 12 58.3 12.00 5.91
June 2012 20 45.0 20.00 1.41
May 2012 20 40.0 20.00 0.22
April 2012 14 42.9 14.00 0.26
March 2012 33 51.5 33.00 15.61
February 2012 54 38.9 54.00 -6.88
January 2012 55 47.3 55.00 3.45

Total for 2012 254 45.3 254.0 28.27

Summary:

There are two types of bettor; can you guess which one makes a profit?

Investor: implicitly follows instructions and eventually makes a long-term profit, by betting on all selections

Gambler: at the first sign of any losing run, starts to chop and change, by betting on some selections but not on others, or worse stops betting altogether. Ultimately misses out on making a long-term profit because he did not bet on the selections that won and actually provided the profit.

So as you can see the road to profit is never even, consistent or smooth. And this is the whole point I’m trying to make. Gamblers never make a profit; investors who can follow instructions, not lose their nerve and keep a clear head eventually make a profit when following a profitable betting system or tipping service.

Remember: In order to make a long-term profit you must back or lay all selections, when following a betting system or tipster. When backing horses you have to accept that you will back more losers than winners. As long as the winners are offered at value odds a profit will be made when they come along.

Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2012 Jonathan Burgess

Today's Selection courtesy of the Exclusive Punters Club

1400 Leicester : Dashing George WIN Bet @ 7/2 Bet365

1425 Lingfield : Mezzotint WIN Bet @ 9/4 Bet365

2 Responses to Don’t Be A Loser

  1. Ian says:

    Since he doesn’t state the stakink plans for these services, then its reasonable to assume a standard 100 point betting bank.
    In which case Stable Investments blew out the bank of anyone starting before 1st February. Just based upon the few figures given, it would require a betting bank of at least 400 points.
    It is no wonder that bettors lose money on such services when the Tipsters greed makes them claim high points results without considering how anybody could survive the drawdowns.

  2. alex says:

    I absolutely 100% agree with Ian. it would take a brave man and not an “investor” to keep going with these systems

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