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Draw Bias

Beverley is a course that is known for its draw bias.

And my research does confirm that there is an advantage to a low draw (1 or 2) especially at 5 furlongs.

But there has been lots of discussion and attempts to balance this out over the years.

So although there is an advantage and it is a positive if the horse you fancy is drawn 1 or 2 I don't see a profit from simply following low drawn horses here.

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As with all these things you're more likely to find profit where others don't look.

While looking at the course layouts for todays meetings I noticed that at Hamilton the 1 mile and 1 mile 1 furlong starts are on a bend.

Often a draw bias comes about as a result of the way the water drains from the course and it is hard to correct. And is usually believed to only effect shorter distances.

But to me the draw advantage that gets overlooked is when it effects longer distances and that usually happens when the starting stalls are on a bend and a lead is an advantage.

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So I've looked at the figures for Hamilton.

If you just backed runners from stall 1 over 1 mile or 1 mile 1 furlong then over the last 11 years you would have made an 8% return on investment at industry SP.

I suspect those profits would be much larger at Betfair Sp because there are some big priced winners in the list.

The strike rate for stall 1 over these distances has fluctuated greatly over the years and I have an old Raceform book from 2004 that declares that high stalls are favoured over these distances.

So it might be that work has gone on to change the bias and it has switched.

But looking at 2012, 2013 and this year shows a huge profit for stall 1 with a 70% ROI and a strike rate up to 20%.

So this seems to be a current bias and one worth taking note of.

Today's races at the distance are 2.40 & 3.40.

2 thoughts on “Draw Bias”

  1. In 2004 I believe the low numbers would have been the outside runners as the draw was left to right from behind the stalls. Now they changed the draw to low against the rails

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