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Each Way Value Explained

Following on from yesterday I thought I'd continue the each way them today with a re-run of an article we published a year ago.

These each way words of wisdom were written for us by Paul Ruffy, who runs a profitable each way tipping service…

So what is an each way bet?

It’s a bet traditionally offered by UK bookmakers consisting of two parts: a win bet and a place bet.

For the win part to give a return the selection must win, for the place part to win the selection must either win or finish in one of the predetermined places, i.e. 2nd or 3rd.

Your stake for an each way bet will be the same on both parts, so if you bet “£5 each way”, you are betting £5 win and £5 to place – a total of £10.
That’s the simple stuff out of the way.

So let’s talk value.

To bet at value you essentially need to be placing bets at bigger odds than what the true chances dictate the odds should be.

Of course finding out what the true chances of something occurring isn’t an exact science.

Therefore it simply comes down to a matter of identifying “perceived value”.

With an each way bet we need to evaluate both the win odds AND the place odds to get an idea of how the prices stack up against our ideas of a value price.

Opportunities arise with each way betting because the place price offered against a horse is a fixed fraction (normally a fifth or a quarter) of its win price.

The win price is most likely a fair representation of its chances of winning.

But simply dividing it by 5 doesn't mean the place price is representative of it's chance of placing!

People have misconceptions that say that betting each way at odds under 5/1 represents a poor bet.

And often horses quoted around 25/1 are touted as great each way bets, on the basis that the place pays around 5/1.

I’d suggest to you that ANY price can represent each way value.

Whether its 10/1 or 10/11.

The calculation that most people do before placing an each way bet is to work out their returns should the horse only place.

So a horse placing at 4/1 (1/5 place odds) would give a return of £9 from a £5 each way bet – a loss of £1 overall.

To look at this potential loss in isolation is to look at each way betting from a narrow and blinkered angle.

One that is entirely wrong in my opinion.

Lets assume that the horse in question is actually a true 4/1 shot (therefore it’d win one in five on average).

Buts lets also assume that there is very little else other than the first three in the betting with any real form.

And therefore that it would place on average 80% of the time.

Finding 10 bets like this could easily give the following results from £5 each way bets:

4/1 unplaced -£10
4/1 3rd -£1
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 Won +£24
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 unplaced -£10
4/1 3rd -£1
4/1 2nd -£1
4/1 Won +£24
Total P/L +£22

Remember this is a true 4/1 shot, so it would only ever be a break even situation betting win only. But because of the favourable place terms, we’ve turned a break even series of bets, into a winning one.

Of course finding horses that have about 80% chance of placing yet can be backed at 4/1 each way do not come up everyday, but they do come up more often than you might think.

Two obvious places you might find instances where the place odds make each way betting favourable are 8 or 9 runner races with an odds-on favourite and 16 runner handicaps.

The principle is the same whatever the race though.

It is comparing the each way place price against the actual chances that will reveal the true value of an each way bet.

There's a couple of races today that look like they might provide some each way value.

Catterick 12.40

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This race has a 1/7 Favourite in Cockney Sparrow. She certainly looks a class above these but she was not fluent with her jumping last time out. The second favourite Miss Conduct looks a class above the remainder and she looks certain to place and value at 8/1 (Bet 365) each way.

Lingfield 1.25

This race has now had one withdrawn since I started writing and is down to 7 runners and so it no longer fits the profile.

Today's Selection

On Course Profits free Horse Racing magazine

Catterick 12.40 Miss Conduct – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365

10 thoughts on “Each Way Value Explained”

  1. Hi, I have recently started working in a bookies and each morning we have to check the bad e/w races, and the two you have highlighted in your article are the races highlighted and we are restricted on how much we could take on them (£10 e/w bit of a joke really). But I am still a bit confused as there are other races today that seem like they would be good e/w races for the punter like the 2:45 at kempton or the 3:45 and a few others. But you or the bookies don’t see them this way. If someone could help me see the difference I would be grateful.

    Dan

    1. Hi Dan

      Interesting that you get these as restricted races.

      I was going to look at the races you mentioned and comment on them but there is no 2.45 or 3.45 today!

      The reason the 12.40 was so good a race is because there were only two good horses in the race, so they were very likely to come 1st and 2nd.

      Because the bookies cant set a separate price for win and place and because they have to go 1/5 the odds for the place there price is a compromise, if they don’t go big enough on the second favourite they will take no money on it (and to an extent they have to be seen to bet at reasonable over-rounds ) so it has to be a fair price which leaves it at big odds for the place.

      This one was 8/1 BOG at Bet 365 so I was getting 1.6/1 or nearly 13/8 on something that should have been odds on to happen IE the horse that was far better then all bar one finishing 2nd.

      Is great that they do the work each day and tell you the races, maybe you should email them over each day and save us a bit of work 🙂 Actually don’t risk your job, they arent that hard to find!

      Dave

  2. Each Way Spot On!

    Well informed, I followed your example, and was delighted to see that Misconduct beat the apparent certainty.
    It is never too late to learn as far as I am concerned

    Tony

  3. There is another way —use betfair & just place
    the place part

    Another example was the 4 horse race for 2 places
    the 13:55 at Lingfield
    Lager Time was odds on 1.4 ( 2/5 ) win market
    In the place market
    Holding Fast was just over 2 ( evens )for a 50/50
    chance 2 places from 4 horses
    Lager Time won , Holding Fast a close 2nd
    other two horses nowhere
    So saved the Win part of an e/w bet
    Admittedly you do have to give Betfair
    5 % of your winnings

    1. Good example Phil. Mis Conduct though was only 1.31 for a place so if you didnt want the win part would be better to bet at the bookies at 8/1 and lay off the win part.

      Dave

  4. I have twice tried to post comments regarding above ten bets profit/loss example and on both occasion was rejected. I am merely trying to ascertain there is no mistake in the example. My calculations show a loss (£-33). If I am wrong please correct me.

    Regards,
    Ghantoo

    1. Hi Ghanboo

      The example bets are correct.

      Where a horse is placed at 4/1 the £5 each way bet will return £9 on the place part. You will get 1/5 the odds on the place part of the bet which is 4/5 times £5 which is £4 plus your stake back which is £5. So for a £5 each way bet your outgoing is £10 and your return is £9 so a £1 loss.

      Where the horse wins your return is 4 times £5 plus your £5 stake which equals £25 plus the £9 for the place part. So a return of £34 for a £10 stake which is a profit of £24.

      Hope that helps
      Dave

  5. Hi Dave
    Thanks for clearing this up for me.I have been gambling for years but was thinking in a single track mind and not multiplying 1/5 the odds by the EW stake.

    Best regards,
    Ghantoo

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