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Epsom Derby Day Preview

Hi all,

It’s Derby Day!

The Derby is arguably the most highly anticipated event in the flat racing calendar, combining sporting excellence, socializing, and a sense of tradition.

The race is the most demanding race of the season for a 3-year-old. It tests a horses speed, stamina, and agility. This year because of the threat by Animal Rising to disrupt the race its will also test their mental strength. If serious disruption does take place, you can guarantee plenty of the runners won’t give their running.  

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Flat racing’s ‘blue riband’ race is scheduled to get underway at 1.30pm to avoid a clash with the FA Cup final.

This year’s race is as fascinating as we have seen in recent years and has very open look to it. It’s just a shame that the threat of chaos before the race will spoil it.

It’s an eight race at Epsom this afternoon and ITV will be covering all eight races live this afternoon. The first two on the main channel and the other six on ITV4.  After the Derby itself the card lack quality but if you like handicaps, like me, your in for a treat.

The best of the handicaps is the Aston Martin Dash (3.20).  This year’s renewal which has £100,0000 in guaranteed prize money will see a maximum field of 20 racing downhill over fastest 5f in the sport.

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Here’s my quick ‘dash’ through the first five races Derby Day card.

Epsom

Kudos to Epsom Clerk Of The Course Andrew Cooper it was a quick ground at Epsom for Oaks Day. I thought he might overwater the track, but he didn’t. Mind you it didn’t help my selections who probably didn’t like the fast ground. Be aware though 5mm will be going on overnight. Hopefully the sun will be out again to dry it out. If not, I could be in trouble.

12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) – 1m ½ f

If pace does, as the American’s say, win the race then we could see it in play in the first. There looks to be only one guaranteed front runner in the field in Marie’s Diamond. Granted the 7-year-old isn’t the horse he once was and has plenty to find on OR’s. However, he showed last time when a neck 2nd of 13 to Marhaba The Champ at York that he retains plenty of ability.  If Hollie Doyle can get the fractions right, he’ll outrun his odds.

1:30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) – 1m 4f

I previewed the race in Thursday’s column. I’m still happy to take on Auguste Rodin and Military Order. If they win, they win.

It could be a day for the romantics with Frankie Dettori’s last ride in an Epsom Derby Arrest being a winning one.

Irish challengers White Birch and Sprewell looks better propositions. The former was runner-up in the Dante and if he handles the track and breaks well is my main fancy. However, I wouldn’t put anyone off Sprewell.

2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m ½ f

Prosperous Voyage won the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes last season and heads the ratings. Probably didn’t appreciate very soft ground in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on reappearance. The favourite and the one to beat.

Potapova and Roman Mist were separated by ½ length when second and third in last year’s race. Potapova went on to win a Sandown Group 3 last season but was found to have had an irregular heartbeat when pulling up in a Goodwood Listed race won by Roman Mist last month. She’s likely to bounce back here and will give the favourite plenty to think about if she does. That said I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the claims of Roman Mist either.

Shaara looked a filly who could do well as a 4-year-old when winning a Listed race at Yarmouth last September. Not as good on either start since including when well behind Prosperous Voyage in the Dahlia Stakes on her return to action. Questions to answer but not without claims if returning to her best and the yard had two fillies win here on Friday.

2:45 – Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap (Class 3) – 5f

A new race for Derby Day. As the 3-year-old sprinters get to race down the fastest 5f in flat racing.

Can To Can seemed to relish the fitting of the first time blinkers when winning at Newcastle 25 days ago. She’s been hit by a 10lb rise in the weights but is going the right way and should go close.

Jm Jungle’s ½ length 2nd of 18 at York 15 days ago is solid. He’s up 4lb but in good form and must be high on the shortlist.

Miss Brazen an impressive winner at Beverley two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when a 2 ¾ length 6th of 18 in that York race last time. Gets 5lb from Jm Jungle and is interesting with Tom Marquand booked.

Grace Angel, was12th of 18 in the same York race, is just 6lb higher than winning at Redcar 12 days ago. She’s not discounted given her present vein of form.

3:20 – Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f

There should be plenty of pace on here and it looks be either side of the track. My five strong shortlist is:  

Live In The Moment is on a 16 long losing run and was 8th in this race 12 months ago. He ran well when a short head 2nd of 16 at Doncaster (6f) 14 days ago. A 3lb rise in the weight makes things tougher and he’s up a couple of notches in class.

Clarendon House was back to his best when a 3 length 5th of 13 to Regional at York 16 days ago. The 5-year-old first run for 6 months, and he should strip much fitter here and is a big player.

Ancient Times who won his first two starts (5f) last season, shaped like he needed his first start for 8 months when a 1 ¾ length 4th of 8 at Newmarket 14 days ago. This is a big opportunity for his 7lb apprentice Kaiya Fraser who is on the horse for the first time.

Mokaatil won this race in 2021 and was a 2 ½ length fourth in last year’s race. Down the field on his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood in April. The cheekpieces left off the day are back on here and the 8-year-old can never be ruled out over C&D that suits.

Mountain Peak is a useful handicap sprinter on his day. The 8-year-old was beaten just a head in this race 12 months ago (3lb higher today) before going on to win a twenty runner 5f handicap at Ascot (1lb lower today).  Last of 13 to Regional at York on his seasonal return and better is expected from the 8-year-old.

Saturday Epsom Verdict:

I have gone with White Birch and Sprewell in the Derby. Although I have to say it’s not with the strongest of recommendations.

One of my recent eyecatchers Mr Wagyu will bid for back to back wins in the 6f handicap that concludes the Derby card. However, a best priced 4/1 means I haven’t backed him yet. If he drifts out to 11/2, I will probably have a saver on him. I have plenty of interest in the other handicaps on the card which will be available to Victor Value subscribers on Friday evening.

As for today’s free tip I’m torn between Marie’s Diamond (12:50) who I’m hoping might get a solo out in front, and Shaara (2:10). The latter looks capable of better as a 4-year-old and will appreciate the return to quicker ground.

Saturday Selection:

Yesterday wasn't the best of days from me. I was expecting to the ground to be easier than it was at Epsom. You can get these calls wrong and I did in Friday.

A cracking afternoon at Epsom which means I’m planning one of my biggest days of betting of the flat season so far. A bad day and this month will have started off badly but I’m hopeful of a couple of winners on the card.  Let’s hope today’s free tip will be one of them.

Epsom

2:10 – Shaara – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.

Good luck with your Saturday bets.

John

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