Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece you can read my thoughts on the upcoming Epsom Derby Festival.

I wasn’t sure whether to do some stats on the upcoming Epsom Derby Festival. It’s only a two day meeting so the sample sizes are smaller. Then I thought why not. Readers seem to like them, and you never know they might pinpoint a few winners.

Epsom: A unique test of a thoroughbred

Epsom Racecourse with its rich history dating back to the 18th century, the venue has become synonymous with the prestigious Epsom Derby, arguably the most celebrated flat horse race in the world.

The stunning natural amphitheatre, known as ‘The Hill’, provides a perfect vantage point for racegoers to witness the action unfold on the track. From this vantage point, you can soak in the panoramic views of the track and marvel at the majesty of the thoroughbred racehorses as they thunder past.

The Epsom highlight is undoubtedly the renowned Epsom Derby. Steeped in history, this legendary race has attracted the some of the finest horses in the sport.

The racecourse has a unique configuration, that presents a challenging and distinctive course for horses and jockeys.

The track at Epsom is a left-handed and its unique configuration and the undulating terrain makes it one of the most testing courses in the country.

Tattenham Corner is a sharp left-hand bend situated at the top of the home straight. It is a critical point on the track as horses are usually starting to get rolling at this point and the relatively steep drop means horses must be able to maintain their balance and positioning.

Camber: Epsom Racecourse has a significant camber, meaning that the track slopes from the inside rail towards the outside. The camber adds another element of difficulty for horses, as they must adjust to the change in ground levels.

The Epsom Racecourse configuration makes it a unique test of a thoroughbred. A horse must be well balanced to be able to handle the turns and camber. Although races up to a mile at the track put a premium on speed. Over the Derby trip there’s undoubted need for stamina to see out the trip.

Epsom Derby Festival Stats:

For this research, I have looked at the results from the meeting from 2017. Those results contain – 70 winners from 766 runners 200 places.

Let’s begin by looking at the trainers.

Trainers:

Here’s a list of those trainers with two or more winners at the Epsom Derby Festival since 2017. Please bear in mind I have left out the 2020 results for obvious reasons.

Looking at the Aidan O’Brien stats in more detail.

He’s 1 winner from 13 runners -9.75 5 places with his runners returned 5/1 or shorter. That’s something to consider if you’re going to take a short price on the likes of Auguste Rodin (Derby) and Savethelastdance (Oaks).

O’Brien is 5 winners from 33 runners +37.5 10 places with his returned 11/2 to 40/1.  Mind you that profit comes courtesy of Wings Of Eagles (40/1) Derby success in 2017.

Verdict: Aidan O’Brien is numerically the top performing trainer thanks to his wins in the Derby & Oaks.  Roger Varian and Charlie Appleby runners are also worth considering, as are any runners from the George Boughey and John Quinn yards.

Jockeys

As I did with the trainers, I have concentrated on jockey’s with two or more winners at the meeting.

Verdict: William Buick, Frankie Dettori & Andrea Atzeni all ride this unique track well. Interestingly its hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Ryan Moore in recent years. However, Ryan comes into this year’s meeting at the very top of his profession and you wouldn’t want to be taking him on despite those poor stats.

Draw:

I looked at stall position to see if there were any draw biases over the various distances. There was a time when you wanted to avoid stalls 1 & 2 in the Derby & Oaks. Then along came Adayar (16/1) in 2021 Derby to bust that trend and a year later Tuesday also came out of stall 1 to win the Oaks.

Even going back as a far as 2008 to increase the sample size and you will be pleased to know that despite the idiosyncratic nature of the track I didn’t find anything significant.

However, looking at handicap races over 1m 2f by draw segment at the meeting since 2008.

Digging a bit deeper into those figures we see that horses drawn 7 & higher are – 3 winners from 50 runners -34.25 15 placed.

Verdict: Apart from over 1m 2f, where horses are drawn low are favoured, I wouldn’t be overly concerned where a horse was drawn.

Previous Course Winners:

Verdict: It may pay to note runners with two or three course wins running in handicaps at the meeting.

Wednesday Preview:

Hopefully some of you were on Roaring Ralph who took very well to first time blinkers when successful at Redcar. I wasn’t going to have a bet yesterday but subscribers to Consistent Profits will be pleased that I did.

There’s just the one race that I want to look at today.

Beverley

4:10 – Five of Casilli’s six career wins have come at Beverley and the mare’s form figures over C&D are 1121. Likely needed the run when down the field at Hamilton 17 days ago and better back at venue that suits.

Captain Corelli was another who probably needed the run when well beaten over C&D 15 days and the return to quicker ground will suit the 6-year-old whos's just 2lb above his last winning mark. A winner on his second start season and has each way claims.

Five time course winner, including four over C&D, Poets Dawn has been well below on her last two starts after a good seasonal return at Ripon. Back down to his last winning mark and respected down a notch in class here over a C&D that suits.

Verdict: Casilli must be respected given her liking for C&D. However, it may pay to Dutch a couple of other course specialists Captain Corelli & Poets Dawn at double figure odds.

In Thursday’s column I will be previewing both the Derby & Oaks.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John