Hi all,

On the eve of the Epsom Derby Festival, you can read my thoughts on both the Derby & Oaks.

Betfred Derby (Group 1) – 1m 4f

This year’s Derby is as open and as fascinating as you’ll see. Its just a shame it being run at 1:30pm.

It’s not often when you have eight potential contenders for flat racing’s ‘blue riband’ race. However, we do for this year race.

Lingfield Derby Trial winner Military Order and 2,000 Guineas flop Auguste Rodin are vying for favouritism.

Military Order is bred to win the race and showed his agility when winning at Lingfield last time. He’s worthy favourite but is too short at the 7/2 at the time of writing.

Top class juvenile Auguste Rodin never got competitive in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket finishing 12^th of 14.  

Personally, I can’t have him after his 2,000 Guineas performance and certainly not at 7/2. On the positive side he’s trained by Aidan O’Brien, and he showed what he can do with Luxembourg, on the back of a poor seasonal return, on Sunday.

More contenders:

Henbit (1980), Shergar (1981) and Ruler Of The World (2013) won the Chester Vase before going onto win the Derby. Arrest was an easy winner of this season’s Chester Vase. His middle distance colt with a future and should prove up to Group 1 quality.  However, he’s a big strong colt who has plenty of knee action which wouldn’t make Epsom undulations ideal on fast ground.

The Foxes & White Birch were first and second in a messy Dante Stakes at York last time. I still think the Dante Form will prove to be better than it looked on the day.

The Foxes has a solid chance of following up, but he just doesn’t strike me as a Derby winner. I much prefer the claims of White Birch.  He was doing his best work at the finish and should relish the step up to 1m 4f. The only thing that worries me is a potentially slow start which was in evidence again at York.

Sir Michael Stoute has supplemented Dante third Passenger. Some think he was the unlucky horse at York.  I’m not so sure I think he lacked the turn of foot to overhaul the two colts who finished in front of him that day and I don’t think he’s guaranteed to improve for the step up in trip.

Of the rest…

Irish challenger Sprewell improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown earlier this month. A quietly progressive colt he’s open to further improvement for the step up to the Derby distance.

Dubai Mile a Group 1 winning juvenile over 1m 2f. The colt was a 5 ¼ length 5th of 14 in the 2,000 Guineas on seasonal return. Longer trip should suit, and he’s got place claims. However, you would like to think there are at least one or two better colts in the line-up.

Waipiro was runner-up to Military Order in the Lingfield Derby Trial. He looked the greener of the pair at Lingfield but also looked to be outstayed by the winner on the day. The return to turf should suit and he’s got place claims.

Derby Verdict:

An open fascinating renewal. There are question marks over all the main contenders ranging from pedigree to going and recent form.  I’m not saying Military Order and Auguste Rodin can’t win the Derby but at their present odds I’m happy to take them on. Sprewell seems to have slipped under the radar since his Leopardstown (1m 2f) win but he’s an improving colt who could do better over 1m 4f. Despite stamina concerns Waipiro has each-way claims as does Dante second White Birch.

Betfred Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f

Friday’s Oaks picture looks clearer than the Derby well according to the bookies.  Eleven were declared for this year’s with the most notable absentee being the Aidan O’Brien trained Warm Heart. A filly who I thought I had solid each way claims.

We have a short price favourite in Savethelastdance winner of the Cheshire Oaks on her last start. Lift Shift (2007) and Enable (2017) were the last two fillies to do the Cheshire Oaks/Oaks double and Savethelastdance was more impressive than either of those two fillies.

Ok, she’s never raced on ground better than good, but her dam won on firm in America so there’s no reason why she won’t be just as effective on a sound surface despite her knee action.

Not that I’m expecting good to firm ground on Friday. The taps have been turned on the ground will be on the easier side of good.

The Gosden yard run impressive Musidora winner Soul Sister and the progressive Running Lion. The

Soul Sister beat the pace bias to win at York last time. She’s not guaranteed to stay 1m 4f given the pace showed to win last time but on breeding there’s a good chance she will. Of more concern would be easy ground combined with the distance given it was pretty much good to firm at York.

Running Lion continues to go the right way and won the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last time. Easy ground won’t concern her as she won on soft at Newmarket. However, there are doubts as to her stamina for 1m 4f.

Whilst I won’t say supplemented Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Eternal Hope can’t win she’s not for me.

Best outsider:

The best of the outsiders might be the David Menuisier Heartache Tonight. A half-sister to the stable’s star middle distance filly Wonderful Tonight. Heartache Tonight won a Longchamp maiden on her racecourse debut last October and improved again to finish a 1 ½ length 4^th of 10 in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary (1m 2f) at Longchamp last time. She wasn’t suited by the steady early pace at Longchamp so a better run race over 1m 4f which given her pedigree should really suit.

Oaks Verdict:

I have suspicion that Savethelastdance will win and could be something special but I’m not saying anything original. 

You can see how the race will pan out. Ryan Moore will want this to be a real stamina test for his filly and will kick on in the straight. Meanwhile the jockey’s on Soul Sister and Running Lion will hope to do him for a turn of foot at the furlong mark. I liked Soul Sister after her win the Musidora but she’s now a best priced 11/4 which doesn’t appeal. Running Lion is getting better with racing but a strongly run 1m 4f will test her stamina.

If you want to have a swing at one at big odds, you will do worse than have a bit on Heartache Tonight. The 1m 4f trip will suit her down to the ground albeit her smart half-sister was at her best in the mud.

Thursday Preview

Another day with plenty of racing on offer but I’m struggling to find much that interests me. In today’s race preview I have had look at the 1m 2f handicap at Ripon.

Ripon

4:20 – Baryshnikov posted a seasonal best when a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 9 in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar just 3 days ago. On winnable mark and is previous C&D winner but his slow starts are worry.

Nigwa won over C&D last August and put in a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2^nd of 14 at Hamilton 18 days ago. Lightly raced and is just 1lb higher than last time. Big shout here.

Pisanello has returned to action in good form. A ¾ length 2^nd of 15 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup seasonal reappearance he then ended a bit of a losing run when getting up close home at Hamilton 18 days ago. Step up 1m 2f is another question stamina wise but he should give his running once more.

Society Red was woeful at Ayr 24 days ago but prior to that has shaped with encouragement when a length 2^nd of 8 over C&D in April. Has now gone 11 runs since his last success which came over C&D last June but he’s 2lb lower and return to form can’t be ruled out.

Top weight Imperial Sands remains a maiden after six starts on turf but has won four times on the all-weather. Made all to win at Kempton in April but had competition for the lead when only 10^th of 16 at York in a better race last month. Handy draw in stall 2 for a front runner.

Verdict: If Imperial Sands gets an uncontested lead, he'll be tough to pass. However, Nigwa comes into the race in good form and she’s a token selection but at 9/4 I can't recommended her as a bet.

Good luck with your Thursday bets.

John