As I was going through my morning routine looking for the bets I'm going to make today I spotted a runner that reminded me of a stat I read in this months Betting Insiders Report.
The stat was included in an article by Racing and Football Outlook writer Dave Renham, who is a regular in the Betting Insiders report.
Dave was looking at favourites that win, but as his research showed in the main backing favourites blindly is a way to lose consistently.
However he was able to uncover one particular race type where favourites make a profit over the long term.
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He then drilled down and found a way to increase the profits. And here it is…
Back favourites in claiming races on the turf, when their last run was also in a claimer.
The results for the last 4 and a bit years (since April 2009)
Runs = 114
Wins = 56
Strike Rate = 49%
Profit at SP = 30.49
Return on Investment (SP) = 26.75%
Today's Selection
Leicester 2.30 Studfarmer – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Sky Bet
Good morning, Regarding the email you sent me about favs in Claimers . It was said ‘on Turf-does this mean Flat and NH excluding AW.
Hi Lawrence it means on the flat and on grass as opposed to on the All Weather courses
Regards
Dave
Sounds very interesting I have a system on Favs
small stakes on the the first 6 timed races
increasng the stakes until a winner.
I wonder you never let on yesterday who was the tipster you’ve been watching.
great information and tip!, pity the horse ran second to Last!,,,,,