On the last day of my guest spot here, I just want to sum up what's been said.
Firstly, I think we have come accross a phenomena, a relatively new trend, which the general betting public and the bookies have yet to catch onto. This is the growing ability of trainers to recuperate their horses in time for a winning run within a short period of time.
This is probably because of advances pioneered by other trainers, Martin Pipe in particular, such as swimming facilites, physio, all weather gallops, etc, and other things I wouldn't pretend to understand as i have no experience of training horses.
This is just my educated guess. All i know is an awful lot more try and an awful lot more succeed these days, and that is what is important for us from a betting point of view.
I have shown you how we devised two systems, one for the jumps, Fit and Fancied Jumpers, and another for the all-weather, The All Weather System. Both of these use, as their basis, knowledge of this relatively new phenomena.
The interesting thing about the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system is that it does so much better in hurdle races with one outstanding exception – handicap chases. As I have openly acknowledged, I am no horse expert. My forte is stats and what I have been able to learn about probability. But, and again this is an educated guess, I think 2 miles over fences must take more out of a horse than the same over hurdles and therefore a longer recovery time is necessary. In which case, how do we explain the success with the handicap chasers?
My theory, as I said in the ebook, is that these are the type of races where trainers are trying to land a gamble and therefore maybe the horse wasn't given too hard a race the time before.
If it won, maybe it won in a grade well below what it is capable of winning in. In short, it didnt have too hard a race last time and therefore didn't need much time to get over its exertions.
This may explain why the system doesn't do as well with horses in NOVICE handicap chases. Horses running in these are not so experienced and may take more out of themselves than is necessary by running too keen, jumping too extravagantly etc.
The All Weather System is completely straightforward and gave us 5/1 SP winner, SCRIBE, yesterday.
Now, the question is: having gained this knowledge, what are you going to do with it?
I am afraid that, in all likelihood, the answer for many readers is, nothing.
A few disciplined souls will be able to ignore life's distractions and will scour the Racing post each night, (the info for both systems is online by 6.30 – 7 each night), for the system selections.
They will be able to back the selections at early prices on the exchanges or at Best Odds Guaranteed, (BOG) the next morning – thus gaining a further advantage. But the vast majority will not put this new knowledge to use whilst others will try to use it but not always come up with the correct selections.
This series of articles has aroused some interest and a few people have emailed us to point out that they may not have the time or the discipline to look for the selections themselves.
Also there has been some inevitable mistakes in the selection process so that some have thanked us for winners that weren't selections, while others have complained about losers that weren't selections!
This has led some to ask whether we have considered providing an email service. The answer is, we already do.
We send an email each night – whether there are selections or not – between 7 – 8. Where there are selections you get the race and the name of the horse and we recommend backing them all at BOG.
The cost is £7.95 per month for each system, fully inclusive, ie, no taxes on top.
However, we have been persuaded by Dave and the Daily Punt team to make a special one-off offer to Daily Punt readers, for today only, of an email service for BOTH systems for just £12.95 per month.
You will surely pay for that out of the ability to get on at early prices. Click Here.
Those who take advantage of this one day offer will also receive a FREE copy of our ebook BACK TO THE FUTURE, which shows you how to back your selections in a novel way which changes around half your losers into non runners!
If you are interested in this option click here to secure your place now.
I hope you have enjoyed this series and will put what you have learned to good use.
Good luck in your future betting.
All the best,
Newcastle 3.35 Lady of Verona – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365 will hill paddy power