by Dave French

February 1, 2012

Football BettingBefore I dive into today's question I just want to invite you to send me any questions you have related to horse racing and betting.

I don't suppose I know the answer to everything, but most of the time if I don't know the answer I will know someone who does.

Feel free to post a question in the comments or reply to one of our emails.
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Yesterday I had a question from a reader about a football betting system.

Basically Tim wanted to know how he could assess a system without having to lose money with it.

So today I just want to talk about the main consideration when assessing or creating a football betting system.

For a football betting system to work they have to target an angle that provides value.

To do that they need to find bets that are under analysed by the bookmakers and the players on the exchanges.

To assess whether a football betting system is likely to be profitable the main thing to consider is what market and type of bet it targets.

The bookies make a lot of money from football betting.

That is because come match day thousands of fans pay a visit to the bookies to make their day out a little more interesting.

And in the main they make bets that are heavily biased in the bookmakers favour.

If you look in the bookies window on match day you can see what kinds of bets you shouldnt be making!

That's because the bets that Ladbrokes advertise in their window on those big posters are the ones they want you to make.

They offer big value to the bookies and guaranteed profit over the long term.

Now if you can lay these same bets at similar prices (like the Scoring for Profit system does) then you are onto a winning strategy.

So the first thing you want to know is what market does the system bet in.

If it's in the 12X market before the off I would be surprised if it can make a good long term return.

These markets are heavily analysed by the bookies and the big players on the exchanges and they are pretty efficient.

The players who make their money in these markets are playing with big banks and making small margins.

Markets where I see people making money are the side markets, like corners, cards and to a lesser extent the overs and unders.

Another way for the new player to make some profits is with in play trading.

Simple trading strategies like Assured Soccer Profits make money regularly and are suited to the small player.

Finally if you want to research your own football betting system there are a number of sites that can help you analyse past data to help with creating a new system.

If you are on a budget then you can use the free spreadsheets at football-data.co.uk (look in the right menu under odds & results)

Today's Selection

Kempton 5.20 King of Windsor – win bet

 

 

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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