This week we have Saturday racing analysis and tips again from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.
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Over to Nick…
Last weekend we managed to pick out a couple of winners in Hot Streak and Slip Sliding Away and two placed horses in Kingsgate Native and Perfect Blessings. Unfortunately with all the rain that fell and the large number of withdrawals we were hit by some large reductions. This weekend I have picked out the best bets from across the cards at Chester, Haydock and York.
The Class 2 Handicap over 7f at Chester (3.05pm) looks a decent race and features a fair number of previous course winners.
Purcell was disappointing in the Victoria Cup when finishing well down the field but I expect him to bounce back here with the tight turns of the Roodee likely to suit and a plum draw in stall 2.
Purcell’s trainer, Andrew Balding, had 3 winners from 7 runners at the May meeting and has saddled 13 winners at the course in the last 2 years.
In the last 5 years his handicappers have won 14 races at the course (23% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of 24pts. I am also happy to put up Deauville Prince as an each-way selection at 16/1 as he has every chance on his earlier form.
Rated 105 back in February after creditable performances in Group 3 races at Meydan and Longchamp, he races here off 100 with Jenny Powell taking off another 7lbs.
If he can get across from stall 5 he could well be leading around the home turn and, as he stays a mile, could still be there to fight out the finish.
Later on the card Andrew Balding runs Storm Force Ten in the 1m 4f Class 4 handicap. A winner at the May meeting he re-opposes the horse he beat by a head that day in Captain Morley.
He is 1lb worse off for a head victory but he has in-form jockey Oisin Murphy on board who takes off 3lb.
Captain Morley had a poor draw that day and ran well to get so close to the eventual winner. I think there is nothing to choose between the pair so I am happy to back both @9/2.
Over at York, the Listed 1m 6f race looks a fascinating contest. I do like the look of Alan King’s First Mohican but I would want better than the currently available 9/2 before getting involved.
Instead, two who can go well at an each-way price are top weight Renew and Shwaiman.
The latter ran well to finish 6th in the Chester Cup from stall 18 and could potentially be the biggest improver in the field.
Renew has a Listed victory at the back end of last season on his CV and was a creditable 4th in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes last time out, with winner Gospel Choir franking that form nicely.
Staying at York, the 5f Class 2 BetBright Trophy Handicap looks hugely competitive and it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with certainty.
Richard Fahey’s Alben Star is currently favourite but it should be noted that he has raced predominantly over 6f and his sole win over the minimum trip was on his racecourse debut.
His trainer also saddles El Viento who is back down to his last winning mark of 91 and gets further respite with a 5lb claimer on board.
Richard Fahey has said he does not think El Viento is an outsider and there is not much between his two runners.
With a nice high draw, a return to form would see him outrun his odds of 40/1.
At the other end of the market, Monsieur Joe is an out and out 5f specialist and has won 9 times at the distance. He won’t mind any ground condition having won on good to firm, soft and polytrack. He’s up 5lb for his latest win but looks in good form and should run another big race.
If Garswood runs anywhere close to his official rating he will win the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes at Haydock.
His seasonal reappearance effort casts enough doubt for me to look elsewhere and I think Breton Rock has as good a chance as any.
The C&D winner is 6 from 8 over 6f and 7f when racing on good to soft or worse. At 4 years old he is open to improvement and I will be hoping for plenty of cut in the ground having backed him @7/1.
Chester 3.05pm: Purcell @4/1 and Deauville Prince @16/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Paddy Power)
Chester 5.15pm: Storm Force Ten @9/2 and Captain Morley @9/2
York 2.20pm: Renew @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3places Bet365) and Shwaiman @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3places BetVictor)
York 2.50: Monsiuer Joe @11/1 and El Viento @40/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places Ladbrokes)
Haydock 2.40: Breton Rock @7/1