Good morning all,

The stalls open on the Qatar “Glorious” Goodwood Festival.  The ground has softened and it looks like it will be soft for day one. As for the rest of week, it’s looking mainly dry but passing showers are forecast for the next five days. However, the weather apps are sending mixed message as to when and how much rain they will produce.

The big Goodwood news on Monday was Richard Hannon aiming Snow Lantern at the Sussex Stakes rather than the Nassau Stakes and given the softening ground it looks a good move.

The day one headline act is Stradivarius as he bids for fifth successive win in the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup (3:35). Although Stradivarius won on soft ground in the past the rain softened ground really brings Trueshan into the mix.   

It’s also day two of the Galway Festival with the feature race of an eight-race card being the COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) (6:15).

ITV are covering the first five races on an eight-race card at Goodwood. Inside today’s main piece I have looked at the first four races at Goodwood and the big race at Galway.

Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 1

1:50 – Unibet “You're On” Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

I really fancied last year’s winner Maydanny here but I think the soft ground has gone against him. Stablemate Sky Defender was beaten 5 lengths 12 months ago but he does get 17lb from the winner and he showed he handled soft ground when finishing runner-up at York last August he could be the best of the Mark Johnston horses.

Cockalorum has returned to action this season in fantastic form with his form figures 2112. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort on RPR’s when finishing a head 2^nd of 20 in the John Smiths Cup at York last time.  Did get the run of the race out in front that day which doesn’t seem likely today.

Migration returned from 21 months off the track when a 1 ½ lengths 4^th of 12 at Salisbury (good to soft) 34-days ago. He was well backed before the race and finished his race strongly, doing best of those who came from off the pace. Given the market support he received last time it looks like connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands. This will be the 5-year-old’s first run on soft ground but he seemed fine on good to soft at Salisbury.

2:25 – Unibet Vintage Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Just the seven have been declared for this juvenile contest. On form it looks a match between Group 2 winners Berkshire Shadow and Lusail.   The first named is unbeaten on both career starts and last time out won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Lusail is improving with racing and last time out was a decisive winner of the July Stakes at Newmarket.  Both colts have shown their best form so far on good to firm ground. That Lusail has already won over 7f just swings it for me but its not a race I have a strong view on.

3:00 – Unibet Lennox Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

I had last year’s winner Space Blues down as one of the best of the meeting. However, that was when the going looked like it would be on the quick side of good. He’s the form pick and handles good to soft well enough. He could still win but he’s plenty short enough for me now.

Escobar goes well here and he finished third in last year’s race. He has 2 ½ lengths to find with the winner on that form. His two best RPR’s have come on soft/heavy so on rain softened ground could get closer to his old rival.

Happy Power had Escobar back in third when winning the Group 3 Supreme Stakes (good to soft) over C&D last August.  He also showed a liking for soft ground when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket last autumn.

Toro Strike was a neck behind Happy Power in the Supreme Stakes. He goes well over C&D with his form figures being 312. A return to Goodwood is a positive but he has a poor run at Haydock behind Kinross in May to overcome and his best form has thus far come on a sound surface.  

Kinross bounced back from a couple of poor runs at Meydan. When landing the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last time.  The gelding operation he had after his stint in Meydan looks to have had the desired effect   A strongly run 7f looks ideal for the 4-year-old and he looks worth his place in this Group 2 contest. Stall 13 isn’t great though with horses drawn 12 & higher in the race being 0 wins from 11 runners 1 placed since 2008.

3:35 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 2m

Stradivarius isn’t the horse he was. That said he remains the one to beat. Doesn’t he? Only 4^th in last month’s Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. He was a bit unlucky in the run that day. However, he wouldn’t have been the winner even with a clear run but have finished third

One place in front of Stradivarius in the Gold Cup was Spanish Mission. A winner of last year’s Doncaster Cup and this season’s Yorkshire Cup at York in May. He was well beaten in the last year’s race but has been in much better form since. He should once again give his running but I think he would want the ground to dry out.

The softening ground has led to plenty of support in the ante post market for Trueshan and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he was sent off favourite.  He missed the Gold Cup due to quick ground but wasn’t disgraced under a huge weight in the Northumberland Plate last month. He was only sixth at Newcastle but on RPR’s it was still up there with his run when winning the Group 2 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. If he handles the Goodwood undulations. I think he can prevent dethrone Stradivarius.

Galway

6:15 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m ½ f

Jessica Harrington saddles a trio of runners in Tauran Shaman, Njord & Free Solo. They all have claims and the first two named have good form at the track.

Stable jockey Shane Foley seems to have opted for Tauran Shaman. A previous C&D winner. He was 4^th in this race 12 months ago.  He’s improved since and maintained this seasons’ good form when a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 at Leopardstown 19-days ago. Should go well although really soft ground would be a bit of an unknown.

Top-weight Njord was beaten just a nose in this race last year. He’s now 12lb higher but has been running well finishing runner-up in Group 3 & Group 2 company on his last two starts. It will be fine effort to win this under 10-5. However, Scott McCullagh does take off a handy 5lb. The easing ground is a positive for the 5-year-old who has a handy low draw.

Dermot Weld’s runners went well on day one and his representative Blue For You has to be respected. The gelding beat Wembley here, on soft ground, 12 months ago. Gelded in the spring, after an underwhelming seasonal return, the fitting of the first-time visor had a galvanizing effect on when winning a Leopardstown handicap. He’s been raised 5lb for that success but he’s lightly raced to think there could be more to come.

Tuesday Selections:

I have a couple of selections from today’s Goodwood card.

Goodwood

1:50 – Migration – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – Happy Power – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Click here to Tweet this

Good luck with your Tuesday bets.

John

John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk