Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece I take an in-depth look at Thursday’s Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase.

The freezing weather continues to have England in it’s grip. Not surprisingly Sunday’s Lingfield Winter Millions card was lot to the frost.

The milder weather seems to be taking an eternity to cross England and it looks like it will be midweek before the South East of England is finally frost free. Fingers crossed next weekend should be a lot better on the weather front and with not much rain forecast the ground will also continue to dry out.

The Grade 1 Clarence House Chase which should have been run at Ascot on Saturday has been rescheduled for Cheltenham Trial’s Meeting next Saturday. It’s going to be a bumper nice race card at Cheltenham and well worth a visit if you’re in the area.

Normally on Monday I would review the weekend’s big race action. However, given there wasn’t much I can happily leave it. Instead, I’m going to look ahead to Thursday’s Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (3:25) at Gowran Park. One of Ireland’s hottest handicap chases it continues to be run midweek rather than be switched to a weekend as seems the norm these days. It’s a cracking midweek winter warmer of a card for jumps fans with the undercard also containing the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle.

Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (3m 1f)

Although I’m on a short holiday for the next few days and switching off from the day to day grind.  It’s a race I like and I will be having a bet or two in it.

Looking at the trends which contain – 14 winners from 247 runners 55 placed. In truth I couldn’t find many significant ones. However, here are a few of the more interesting ones. Starting with the trainers:

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott combined have had 7 winners from 83 runners 20 placed. Mullins is 5 winners from 49 runners +2.5 15 placed.

All the last 14 winners of the race have less than 18 starts over fences.

Those between Top Weight & 3lb lower are a healthy – 6 winners from 29 runners +36.5 9 placed.

Contenders:

Looking at this years entries eight have caught my eye.  The first three are trained by winning most trainer Willie Mullins.

Mullins trio

Carefully Selected shaped well enough on his return from a 1022 day break when a 21 length 11 of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas. A classy novice chaser a couple of seasons back he can’t be ruled out.

Stones And Roses was likely also in need of the run when pulling up in the Paddy Power. He might struggle to get into the race but if he gets to run could go well off his light weight.

Last year’s runner-up Franco De Port must be respected off 4lb higher than last year. Back to form when a staying on 6 ¾ lengths 4th of 7 to Conflated in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown last month.

Elliott pair

Pencilfulloflead had plenty of good novice chase form two seasons back and shaped well on his first start for 334-days when a 7 ¾ length last of four to Blue Lord over an inadequate 2m4f at Clonmel in November. The return to 3m + will suit the 9-year-old who goes very well in the mud.

Coko Beach won this in 2021 but struggled last season. A much better effort from the 8-year-old when 19 length 4^th of 18 in the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan last time.  Capable of a big run if building on his last performance.

Three more for the shortlist….

Diol Ker was beaten just a short head when 2^nd of 28 in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown last time.  The 9-year-old is up 4lb for that effort but not ruled out as he’s well suited to the demands of big field handicap chases.

Donkey Years unseated his rider at the fifth in the Paddy Power. A useful handicap chase on his day and the 9-year-old should give his running provided the ground continues to dry out. He doesn’t want it heavy. However, he’s likely to prove vulnerable to any better treated rivals.

Angels Dawn seems unlikely to get into the race and would be out of the weights if she did. However, there was nothing wrong with her short head 2^nd of 12 at Punchestown 26-days ago. Indeed, she probably would have won but for a bad mistake at the last. Goes very well when the mud is flying and is an interesting light weight.

Verdict:

The Mullins and Elliot runners need keeping onside. Carefully Selected looks on a good mark if building on his last performance after a long layoff. Last year’s runner Franco De Port is very much in the mix again. Pencilfulloflead looks the pick of the Elliot runners, and I can see him going close if his jumping holds up.

Of the rest Diol Ker is suited to big field handicap chases but a 4lb rise makes life tougher. Not sure she’ll get in, but Angels Dawn could get into the places at big odds.

Ferns Lock: A new hunter chase champion?

Yesterday’s selection Ferns Lock comfortably saw of Billaway in the hunters chase at Thurles. The latter always comes on for his first run, so I expected him to lose. I took the 6/5 available on the winner in the morning not really my sort of play but I though race fitness combined with his progressive profile would see him home. Billaway will be better for the run but I don't think he'll beat Ferns Lock next time.

Trainer David Christie seemed to be suggesting after the race that the 6-year-old wouldn’t be going for the hunters chase at Cheltenham. I hope he’ll have a change of heart as Ferns Lock is going to the top of the hunter chase tree.

Anyway, that me done until Saturday’s column. Have a great week and good luck with your bets. Oh and enjoy Thursday's big race action at Gowran Park.

John