Today we have a guest post from industry expert Dave Renham…
Dave Renham currently writes for the Racing and Football Outlook Newspaper, has produced website content for the At the Races website and has also worked as spotlight in the Racing Post.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
I am a firm believer that the past has many important lessons to teach us. The more carefully one investigates the past the more likely one is to make sensible predictions about the future.
The big race of the Cheltenham Festival is the Gold Cup. I have studied the records of the last ten years and have highlighted below some of the stand out positive and negative statistics for this race.
Favourites: 6 wins from 10 (PROFIT £8.85; ROI +88.5%). (based on Starting Prices)
Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Recent form: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Festival Form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed at a previous Festival (6 had won).
Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 (16 of the last 18).
Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners came from one of three tracks –Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton.
King George: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George VI chase the previous December (for 6 of them it was their most recent start).
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 169 or bigger have produced 8 winners from only 22 qualifiers.
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had not raced for at least a month.
Breeding: Irish bred runners have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 122 runners.
Age: Horses aged 10 or older are 0 wins from 48.
Finishing positions of favourites: PU, 1, 1, 1, 11, 1, 2, 1, F, 1
The most interesting stats/trends angle this year is the fact that Kauto Star who is 12 years old is second favourite. He is a best priced 7/2, and is as low as 5/2 with Ladbrokes.
The problem for punters wanting to back him is that he has a huge age trend to break.
Of course trends are there to be broken, but since 1988 the record of horses aged 11 or older reads a dismal 0 from 46.
This is as far back as I can go as the Racing Post on line results stop at 1988.
However, I can add that the last winner aged 11 or older of the Gold Cup was What a Myth in 1969 when he was a 12 year old.
Hence we are probably looking at a losing run of around 80-90 runners for horses aged 11 or older.
Would you want to back Kauto Star knowing that?
OK, it looks a sub standard race this year but even so I’ll be sticking with the trends.
Advice – LAY Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Betfair
Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club
Nesnaas 0.5pts EW (3.00 Leicester) 25`1 with various firms
Is a bit of a leap of faith when you look at jumps form figures. But has been running with credit on the flat recently for a new yard and the selection is very well handicapped if they have sweetened him up.