Good morning all,

As promised last week, the first of four pieces that looks at the big four races at the Festival next month. Thought we'd start with the big one, with one or two of the contenders of interest running this weekend in Ireland.

Next week, the Champion Hurdle.

Whereas the picture for the likes of the Stayers and the Ryanair is still something of a moveable feast, we pretty much know who is going to be lining up here and with that, we can untangle a few of the main form lines.

We will start with the favourite, A Plus Tard. Second in last year’s Gold Cup, it has been very quickly forgotten that he absolutely panned Royale Pagaille and company in the Betfair on his reappearance this year, a mighty performance that was backed up on the clock. That race can throw up some strange-looking results on paper, but the ground this year was no worse than good to soft, and I’m happy to take it at face value.

On the face of it, getting caught by Galvin in the Savils Chase at Leopardstown was disappointing, given the previous run, but you can easily put a positive spin on it by remembering how many of the De Bromhead team ran awfully over the period, and in the context of that, A Plus Tard’s effort is probably better than it looks. He’s the right favourite, for me, and the one to beat.

Minella Indo is a worry already. His defeat on reappearance in the Kauto Star at Down Royal is easy enough to forgive, being his seasonal reappearance, but to turn up with cheekpieces on only his second start after winning last year’s Gold Cup for the King George set plenty of alarm bells ringing. If you want to argue a case that he did neither his chances nor Frodon’s any good by taking him on then fine, but to me he might already be a busted flush. I couldn’t be backing him until he shows some of the old fire.

At the start of the season Galvin wasn’t really on my radar for this – I didn’t think he was good enough – but that Leopardstown win, where his stamina won the day, marked him out as a contender. Looking back, his NH Chase win at the Festival last year looks all the better, with the front three a mile clear of Snow Leopardess back in fourth (Escaria Ten for the Ultima, whilst we are here) and we all know you need a boat, albeit a quickish boat, to win this. On that, Galvin starts to fit the bill.

Protektorat is the best of the British, but does that Aintree win conclusively prove his stamina for this? Not for me, given Native River was clearly on the downgrade and that left him with little to beat in a race that fell apart. They won’t, but I’d like to see connections move him to the Ryanair, where he’d be much more interesting from a betting perspective.

Al Boum Photo has a great record in the race but once you’ve lost a crown, it’s hard to get it back. I can see him running another solid race and finishing in the four, but that’s about as good as I can have him at present.

It’s hard to know what to make of Tornado Flyer. The fact you can have 14-1 about a ready King George winner says plenty – I don’t think others know either. It’s easy to make a case that you’re backing an improver that has Festival form, having finished third in the Ryanair last year, but equally even that KG form might not be enough. I wouldn’t want to be laying 14-1, put it that way. One to back each-way on the day with extra places as he runs through the beaten ones.

I couldn’t have Chantry House if you gave me the money. Cheekpieces were also tried with him in the Cotswold after a terrible effort in the King George (went off a surprising favourite) but he looks to have his own ideas about the game, and was legless crossing the line in the Cotswold. Another 200yds is hardly going to help his cause, and it isn’t hard to see him chucking it in early again anyway. I’ll be taking him on in match bets and the like come the day.

Royal Pagaille is best at giving weight away to inferiors and came up short last year. He’s got 20+ lengths to find with A Plus Tard and looks awful value. In fact, there’s not much else that makes any appeal, apart from Mount Ida.

She’s got about a stone to find on form, but Gordon Elliott’s mare has her plus points. Namely, we know she’s got the stamina for this after her remarkable Kim Muir win last year (Cloudy Glen second, that form looks better now) and she gave Elimay 3lb and a beating at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day. Whereas at the start of the year it looked like they might try and keep her mark down to give a National of some description a try, that now appears not to be the case. She’s on an upward curve, which you can’t say for too many here, and I’d not be surprised if connections wanted to give this a try.

I'm having a small each-way bet on her at the current 33-1 in the hope she finds the necessary improvement between now and March.

Today I'm having a small e/w bet on Enormouse in the 3.00 at Chepstow. 11mm of rain has fallen at Chepstow this morning, which is a massive positive as he looks a bit of a slowboat in need of a step up in trip, and if this well-named gelding (he's huge) can pick his feet up a bit better than he did on his debut here last month, I think he's going a solid chance. One I'm following until he's shown me he's not worth following anymore.

Today's selection – Enormouse (e/w) 3.00 Chepstow

Good luck with all your bets today,

David.