Good morning all,
Off to Newmarket with Daren today, where I'll be working in Tatts. I'm informed it's another Ladies Day. I reckon there's a factory churning them out somewhere. Think there's one every day.
Anyway, I have had a look at the first four races on the card, which are on ITV3 later as well. Difficult to get too confident at present as we've no idea about ground, draw biases etc but we should have a slightly better idea by the end of the day.
1.50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (1m5f)
For all that Atty Persse was impressive when taking the King George V Stakes at Ascot, he’s likely to find that ground conditions are a bit different here and this is a new test. He could easily pass it, of course, but I do think there’s some e/w value in the race in the shape of Face The Facts.
He’s got masses to find on form, but he will stay and won’t mind if there is a bit of juice in the ground. Not beaten that far in the Queens Vase last time (a race that’s thrown the winner of this up twice in recent years, and he’s not got much to find with Desert Skyline on that form) and with plenty of these wanting to push on early (I can see at least four of these that may want a show of the front) he could stay on through beaten horses to claim a place at least. John Gosden has a good record in the race, which increases confidence a bit too. The 28-1 with 365 (1/4 the odds) is a bet for me.
2.25 – Arqana July Stakes (6f)
Have to say this makes no appeal as a betting medium at present, plenty hold some sort of a chance but the ground may have a say. If there is any dig, there’s a case to be argued for Denaar, a nice winner here two starts back (on good to soft) and showed bright speed at Ascot but may have found the ground too quick. But I’m happy to swerve this at this stage.
3.00 – bet365 Handicap (6f)
Again, ground and draw will play their part here, and at the moment caution is advised. The one that catches my eye a bit is Hyde Park, who was so impressive when running away with a maiden at Doncaster last year (beat some good sorts), has some track form (including a second to Apex King, who later won at Listed level) and a bit of cut would be fine. You have to forgive a poor effort in the Hunt Cup but I’m happy to do so, and at the moment would be my first pick, with this drop back to 6f an interesting one.
Further down the handicap, Cartographer was very impressive when beating Storm Cry (run well since) at the back end of June and it’s good to see De Sousa keep the mount. She quickened away nicely from the front there and although that’s going to be more difficult in a bigger field, she’s got a Stewards Cup entry and she wouldn’t be getting that if she wasn’t any good.
3.35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (1m4f)
I was all over Frontiersman at Epsom and he duly ran a cracker to finish second to Highland Reel, surely the most underrated horse in training. A winner twice at Newmarket on the Rowley course, he wouldn’t the ground too testing but as long as it’s not, I think he takes all the beating here on his way to even better things. The only thing I would question is the addition of cheekpieces, as I’m not entirely sure he needs them, perhaps connections thought he was hanging of his own accord at Epsom (rather than the track being responsible) and it will straighten him out. Either way, I think he will carry my money.
Today's selection – Hyde Park 3.00 Newmarket
Good luck with all your bets today,